19 Teams Left

Aggies/Indiana/UGA/OSU look like the best teams but all look vulnerable.

With 0, 1, or 2 losses (excluding G5) for 11 spots

SEC (6) - Aggies, UGA, Ole Miss, Bama, OU, Vandy
B1G (5) - Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon, USC, Michigan
Big 12 (4) - texas tech, BYU, Utah, Houston
ACC (3) - GTech, Virginia, Miami
Independent (1) - Notre Dame

Awesome!

So lets go 1 more step. Locks with a loss.

SEC - A&aM, UGA, Bama (if CCG)
Big 10 - OSU, Indiana
Big 12 - Texas Tech

So that's 3 conference champs and 3 at larges taken. Plus ACC & Go5. 8 spots accounted for leaving....

Ole Miss, OU, Vandy
Oregon USC, Michigan
BYU, Utah, Houston
GT, Virginia & Miami (more than likely 1 of these teams is ACC champ)

So 11 teams for 4 spots?

Looking at the two likely spoilers not on this list:

You have to add Arizona State to the mix. If Cincy beats BYU this week, ASU will have the inside track to play Texas Tech for the Big 12 title game. ASU gave Tech their only loss. ASU is eliminated if BYU beats Cincy though.

You kind of have to do the same in the ACC with SMU. If Pitt beats Georgia Tech or Virginia Tech beats Virginia, SMU is in the ACC title game. Miami does not have a realistic path to win the ACC title - ESPN's projections this morning have them as the ACC champ, but it would take total chaos. There are four teams with just 1 loss in front of them and they lose the tiebreaker to SMU.

In the Group of 5, the American title game looks like it will be North Texas AT East Carolina. Tulane needs one of them to fall.

In the Sun Belt, Southern Miss lost to the last place team yesterday, so James Madison is the only unbeaten left. They will likely host USM.

San Diego State and Boise State will likely play for the MWC title. If ECU wins the American and Southern Miss wins the Sun Belt, the MWC champ could slip in.

Jacksonville State will probably win C-USA and Western Michigan will win the MAC - but they have no chance to be the highest Group of 5.

Just a question. Why is Notre Dame considered a P4 team? What makes them any different than another Independent? Would UConn be considered a P4 team? Army?

I dont make the rules, idk

Miami I guess is technically alive but they have almost no chance to make the ACCCG or hold on to a spot high enough to get in. Utah and Houston are very close to having no chance either.

Yeah, just wondering if anyone knows the thought process or justification for it (beyond the obvious of their name)

quote:

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UGA

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Georgia could lose to Tech and the SECCG and be out.

Georgia needs help to even get in the game. If it happens, cool. We can defend our title. If it doesn't happen all we got to do is crush the nerds and we watch the champ game, then the show. Watch Texas tech kill the group of 5 winner and then play TT in Texas I believe.

Agree completely. This season has been wild arse hell. I expect the playoffs to be as spectacular!