Winning the SEC, recruiting and Mullen

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Since 2005, there have been 132 Power-5 conference head coaching hires, including 11 who – similar to Mullen – have yet to coach a game.

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Of course, that does ignore Gators history, as previous UF coaches since Steve Spurrier have seen their classes improve by  9 spots, from 13.5 to 4.5, an improvement of 67 percent. If Mullen were to maintain this average, his 2019  class would finish with a national ranking of 4th or 5th.

Additionally, the 6 future SEC Championship coaches hired since 2005 saw the following during their bump class:

An increase of 8.2 spots in the national rankings

An increase 2.3 spots in the conference rankings

An average of 2.3 5-star recruitsAn average national ranking of 4.7

An average conference ranking of 2.3

An average of 16.8 blue-chips (4 or 5-star recruits) in the class

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Dating back to 1990, only two coaches have won their first SEC Championship at a school after their third season: Phillip Fulmer at Tennessee in 1997 (with Peyton Manning at QB) and Tommy Tuberville at Auburn in 2004 (both in their fifth seasons). Each of the 6 future SEC championship coaches hired since 2005 were among those who won the conference in their first three seasons.

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While it might seem counterintuitive that a coach would need help from his second recruiting class to win an early championship, that’s exactly what happened with the following bump class-additions:

Tim Tebow and Percy Harvin from Urban Meyer’s 2006 class at Florida

Cam Newton from Gene Chizik’s 2010 class at Auburn

Mark Ingraham from Nick Saban’s 2008 class at Alabama

Jake Fromm from Kirby Smart’s 2017 class at Georgia

Also, if you’re counting at home, that’s 3 Heisman trophy winners acquired in the bump classes of the last 6 SEC championship-winning coach hires. 

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. There, he followed up the strong transition class we spoke about above (18th nationally) with a bump class that actually fell to 30th nationally. In fact, Mullen is one of only five Power-5 coaching hires (of 132 total, 121 who have completed a bump class) since 2005 to see recruiting rankings decline in his first three cycles.

Jerry Kill – Minnesota (2011-2013): 57, 59, and 67

Kyle Flood – Rutgers (2012-2014): 23, 48, and 56

Derek Dooley – Tennessee (2010-2012): 7, 14 and 19

Derek Mason – Vanderbilt (2014-2016): 46, 49 and 54

Dan Mullen – Mississippi State (2009-2011): 18, 30 and 41

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Mullen has to prove it on the field first.” Does history support this?

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Well, no. In the 5 seasons from 2008-2012, the University of Tennessee posted win totals of 5, 7, 6, 5 and 5.

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A bump class that ranked 7th nationally.

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2009, Steve Sarkisian followed-up an 0-12 season with 5 wins, then ascended from the 75th ranked transition class all the way up to the 19th ranked bump class at Washington.

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At Texas, the Longhorns have averaged 6.6 wins in the eight seasons since their 2009 title game loss (the same year Tim Tebow left and the glory days ended at Florida). In that span, Texas has managed no conference championships and only one second place finish in the Big 12, with its past four finishes being 5th, 5th, 6th and 4th.

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That might not sound like much to Gator fans, but the effort met the following benchmarks for MSU:

First 9+ win total in 11 years
Second highest win total since 1980

Second bowl appearance and win in a decade

The effort was truly historic at Mississippi State, yet Mullen’s class ranking plummeted even further in the 3rd cycle (41st nationally). 

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three coaches have managed a national top-10 recruiting class in their third cycle after being outside the top-10 with their first and second classes:

Dabo Swinney at Clemson (2009-2011): 36, 27 and 10

Mark Richt at Miami (2016-2018): 22, 12 and 8

Steve Spurrier at South Carolina (2005-2007): 18, 33 and 7

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