re: Who melts harder when our new Georgia overlords take over CFB with a NC?

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The less first downs you get, the less touches you get.

When you are losing by 21 rather than winning by 21, the less rushes a RB is gonna get.

He was hurt, but not to the extent folks claim. He was still running very hard. Its not like he had a hurt ankle, and couldnt explode downfield. He simply didnt have the same holes that were there in game 1. You continue to ignore how badly their OL got beat by our front 7 in game 2.

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For some actual math behind it, look no further than the S&P+ breakdown by game...

Auburn v UGA I - Auburn, AL:


Auburn generated nearly 4 YPC through Bill's "Adjusted Line Yards" metric... it's meant to essentially account for the difference between RB specific production vs what the OL is able to generate. Hardly an exact science, but the same measurements are used from game to game, and therefore it's at least a consistent metric.

This leaves KJ responsible for approximately 1.3 YPC of "RB specific" production. More importantly, the math there works out so that on average, 2 runs of "normal" RB output + average LY = a first down...

Let's compare this to the rematch in the SECCG...

Auburn v UGA II - Atlanta, GA


You can see a significant drop off in adjusted line yards... in fact it's been nearly cut in half... down to (not by) 65% output from the OL. (Side note: if anyone knows where to get raw yards before/after contact in college, would be interested...)

Obviously, KJ's "RB specific" output has decreased somewhat as well... from 1.27 to .8 YPC... or down to (not by) about 62%... however, working out the math there, you can see that the .47 yards per carry difference there on KJ's performance is not the core differentiator, nor was it the difference between averaging a first down every 2 carries.

Small sample sizes and all, but the last column there looks at yards gained specifically when the offensive line "did it's job" - ie. if the play went for minimum of 5 yards how much additional yardage was gained per carry. In this case, KJ actually outperformed the previous game.

At the end of the day, all this seems to confirm what was visibly obvious to most viewers except apparently Straws... Auburn got beat on the LOS in game 2 after dominating on the LOS in game 1...

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nope...yall beat the team in front of you. but you cant deny what happened.

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Auburn had to play a big game away from home. That's what happened.

Done with the KJ was hurting argument, no one even mentions Michel left the game completely, ya know why? UGA stable isn't reliant on one horse.

Speaking only for myself

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Auburn,

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and it won't be close.

I will melt hard and I'm not ashamed to admit it.

Bama for $500