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re: (Very) Early SEC Predictions
Posted on 2/8/11 at 11:31 am to CoonassBulldog
Posted on 2/8/11 at 11:31 am to CoonassBulldog
quote:
LSU wins title in 2007- 2008 loses 5 games. Why? Lots of losses on the OL and DL
Actually by far the 2 biggest factors were going from Flynn to Hatch/Lee/Jefferson and the DC changeup (or frickups).
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Posted on 2/8/11 at 11:32 am to AUFANATL
Solid argument, but I still don't see Auburn finishing in the top 15. I'd say 4-5 losses.
Posted on 2/8/11 at 11:32 am to AUFANATL
quote:
You're cherry picking a bit.
If you look back at every BCS title winner, they all lost a lot of talent because title winning teams usually have two things in common: (1) a deep corps of senior leaders, especially on the line of scrimmage and (2) star underclassmen who raise their draft stock and bolt for the NFL.
But if you look at these champions closely something else emerges - great coaching and a great undertone of players that maybe didn't get the credit they deserve.
That's why champions tend to have a good followup season even if they don't repeat:
1999 Tennessee - finished ranked #9
2000 FSU - finished ranked #4
2001 Oklahoma - finished ranked #6
2002 Miami - finished ranked #2
2003 Ohio St - finished ranked #4
2004 LSU - finished ranked #16
2005 USC - finished ranked #2
2006 Texas - finished ranked #13
2007 Florida - finished ranked #13
2008 LSU - finished unranked
2009 Florida - finished ranked #3
2010 Alabama - finished ranked #10
You can go back pre-BCS and the results are still the same. It's very rare that a team has a bad, or even disappointing season after a NC, despite how many good players the lost.
And even when returning champions lose games, it's typically to very good opponents by very slim margins. 2004 LSU, for example, lost by 1 point on a controversial call at undefeated Auburn and then lost on a last second hail mary in the bowl game against a top 10 Iowa team.
The outlier on the list is obviously 2008 LSU who lost 5 games. But remember that 2007 LSU team was an anomoly. The only reason they won the championship was because they had to give it to somebody. That team (2007) lost two games to unranked opponents and trailed in the 4th quarter of an additional five other games. They were a paper tiger by national championship standards. It wasn't that much of a surprise that they slipped the next year. It's possible that Auburn could have a similar reversal of fortune, but it would go against the historical trend.
The most credible aspect of this argument is that the SEC West is so tough right now. Any team is good enough to make a run at the NC but getting by the other five teams is going to be murder.
Thsi is why ppl were so shocked at Texas' performance last season.
AU will be fine.
Posted on 2/8/11 at 11:32 am to AUFANATL
quote:While I don't entirely disagree with your post, what do you predict for AU?
AUFANATL
Posted on 2/8/11 at 11:34 am to parkjas2001
quote:
really?
Yes really, Auburn had to back count scholarships . . from what last years recruiting class and you lose 20+ seniors. . . .
Every time you guys talk about oversigning the first thing AU says is "we back counted scholarships" which is a correct answer. However, to say you guys are deep at the moment is not true. The past two classes have been good but outside those there isn't much there.
Posted on 2/8/11 at 11:36 am to UASports23
quote:
Auburn had to back count scholarships
HAd being the operative word.
We have reached our limit...that is why we didnt need to oversign this year.
Our backup0s got plenty of minutes...significant ones.
Posted on 2/8/11 at 11:38 am to parkjas2001
Who is going to play QB for Auburn?
Posted on 2/8/11 at 11:38 am to parkjas2001
I'm not saying you guys are tanking. I'm saying the guys on your team is inexperienced and if your depth is made up of the past two years. They will be freshmen/redshirt freshmen/sophomores.
Do you guys have a lot of great senior/junior players ?
Do you guys have a lot of great senior/junior players ?
Posted on 2/8/11 at 11:38 am to Al Bundy Bulldog
The guy in shotgun
Posted on 2/8/11 at 11:40 am to UASports23
We have sophmores with over 20 games under their belt.
We ahve freshmen with over 10 games under their belt.
No, we are not senior heavy but yo udont have to be jr and sr heavy to ahve experienced players.
MIllner is experienced.
We ahve freshmen with over 10 games under their belt.
No, we are not senior heavy but yo udont have to be jr and sr heavy to ahve experienced players.
MIllner is experienced.
Posted on 2/8/11 at 11:46 am to parkjas2001
I was under the impression that you guys didn't have a lot of young people that started ?
I would say that Miliner is still our weakest link too. I mean he will get a lot better. However, it is still tough. We also lost 3 games with a lot more veterans then you guys and better depth.
I would say that Miliner is still our weakest link too. I mean he will get a lot better. However, it is still tough. We also lost 3 games with a lot more veterans then you guys and better depth.
Posted on 2/8/11 at 11:48 am to UASports23
quote:
I was under the impression that you guys didn't have a lot of young people that started ?
started...no. played...absolutely.
Posted on 2/8/11 at 11:50 am to AUFANATL
quote:
The outlier on the list is obviously 2008 LSU who lost 5 games. But remember that 2007 LSU team was an anomoly. The only reason they won the championship was because they had to give it to somebody. That team (2007) lost two games to unranked opponents and trailed in the 4th quarter of an additional five other games. They were a paper tiger by national championship standards. It wasn't that much of a surprise that they slipped the next year. It's possible that Auburn could have a similar reversal of fortune, but it would go against the historical trend
What a lame post. LSU lost twice in triple OT; this is the way it worked out; far from they had to give to someone. Everyone lost twice; LSU the clear best 2 loss team, losing twice in triple OT. I agree it may have been an anomoly, and may never happen again, BUT, LSU still owns 2 Crystal Balls and deserve it fully.
The reason for the struggle in 08 is obvious even to morons. Blue Chip QB Ryan Perriloux is kicked off the team because Les runs a tight ship in BR. If Perriloux plays, I can say confidently LSU finishes in the top 15. Auburn on the other hand, will not finish that high.
Anyway, if you look at the past 5 years, your point is invalid. 4 of 5 years teams have finished 15 or lower. And so will Auburn. Congrats on your 1 year run.
Posted on 2/8/11 at 11:53 am to thunderbird1100
quote:
LSU wins title in 2007- 2008 loses 5 games. Why? Lots of losses on the OL and DL
Actually by far the 2 biggest factors were going from Flynn to Hatch/Lee/Jefferson and the DC changeup (or frickups).
Exactly. Without the extraction of Perrilloux most of the shoddy DC Malleveto episode even gets covered up. 2 losses max if Perrilloux and Pellini don't leave town. In a way, it was a blessing because it brought in Chavis.
Posted on 2/8/11 at 11:56 am to Koolaidkidiz
quote:
4 of 5 years teams have finished 15 or lower.
10 or lower, My typo.
Posted on 2/8/11 at 11:59 am to RANDY44
quote:
Exactly. Without the extraction of Perrilloux most of the shoddy DC Malleveto episode even gets covered up. 2 losses max if Perrilloux and Pellini don't leave town. In a way, it was a blessing because it brought in Chavis.
Exactly. This guy's reasoning behind 08 is stupid. LSU in 2007 had nothing to do with 2008. New DC, who sucked. Star QB kicked off team, 2 Freshmen in.
We will be sure to discredit your 2010 title when Kiehl Frazier loses 5-6 games next year as a Freshman.
Posted on 2/8/11 at 12:04 pm to Koolaidkidiz
quote:
Exactly. This guy's reasoning behind 08 is stupid. LSU in 2007 had nothing to do with 2008. New DC, who sucked. Star QB kicked off team, 2 Freshmen in.
To further, I think we only lost 1 OL and 2 DL from 2007 to 2008. Clearly that wasnt our problem.
Posted on 2/8/11 at 12:04 pm to RollTide1987
SEC West
Alabama: 11-1 SEC 7-1
LSU: 10-2 SEC 6-2
Arkansas: 9-3 SEC 5-3
Miss. State:8-4 SEC 4-4
Auburn: 7-5 SEC 3-5
Ole Miss: 4-8 SEC 1-7
SEC East
USCe: 9-3 SEC 6-2
Florida: 8-4 SEC 5-3
Georgia: 8-4 SEC 4-4
Tennessee:8-4 SEC 4-4
Kentucky: 6-6 SEC 2-6
Vanderbilt:2-10 SEC 1-7
Alabama: 11-1 SEC 7-1
LSU: 10-2 SEC 6-2
Arkansas: 9-3 SEC 5-3
Miss. State:8-4 SEC 4-4
Auburn: 7-5 SEC 3-5
Ole Miss: 4-8 SEC 1-7
SEC East
USCe: 9-3 SEC 6-2
Florida: 8-4 SEC 5-3
Georgia: 8-4 SEC 4-4
Tennessee:8-4 SEC 4-4
Kentucky: 6-6 SEC 2-6
Vanderbilt:2-10 SEC 1-7
This post was edited on 2/8/11 at 12:08 pm
Posted on 2/8/11 at 12:07 pm to parkjas2001
quote:
AU will be fine.
I think every fanbase that hasn't won a Championship recently and had to defend are missing the point.
You have a Tenn fan saying AU will be fine and AU fans saying they will be fine due to the last 2 years of recruiting.
BTW, I agree. AU will be fine. Chizik is a great recruiter and should bring in talent annually. It just won't be next year. You are replacing way too much, have a target in the middle of your back, and will struggle. 2 years of recruiting doesn't equal 4 to 5, like LSU and Bama have done. And emphasizing it again, add to it that you are defending a title. Miss St, then at Clem to start the year. Then, the 4 game stretch, 3 on the road: at S Car, at Arky, Florida, at LSU.
Good Luck.
Posted on 2/8/11 at 12:08 pm to RANDY44
quote:
SEC West
LSU: 11-1 7-1
Bama: 10-2 6-2
Arkansas: 9-3 5-3
Miss. State:8-4 4-4
Auburn: 7-5 3-5
Ole Miss: 4-8 1-7
SEC East
USCe: 9-3 6-2
Florida: 8-4 5-3
Georgia: 8-4 4-4
Tennessee:8-4 4-4
Kentucky: 6-6 2-6
Vanderbilt:2-10 1-7
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