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re: The beginning of the end of the NCAA in football has begun....

Posted on 1/21/13 at 10:42 am to
Posted by winyahpercy
Georgetown, South Carolina
Member since Nov 2010
1383 posts
Posted on 1/21/13 at 10:42 am to
the ACC was doomed once it expanded. the ACC is a "country club" where everyone lives in the neighborhood. everyone knows Judge Smails (UNC) and his sidekick Dr. Beeper (Duke) are assholes but they can deal w/ them. once the Al Czerviks start joining the club (BC, Syracuse, Miami, Pitt, Louisville and to some degree FSU), the annual club tournament isn't as fun anymore.

The tobacco road schools relish the days of working a half day on Friday and driving to Greensboro to watch the ACC basketball tournment and they'll know the majority of the other team's fans. once the tournament got to be about money, bigger stadiums outside of NC, more schools and fans, it wasn't the same. i've been to 5-6 ACC tournaments in the late 70s - 80s, and it was nothing like it is now.
Posted by twk
Wichita Falls, Texas
Member since Jul 2011
2122 posts
Posted on 1/21/13 at 10:43 am to
I tend to agree with a lot of what aggressor wrote, but I would take isssue with the assertion that a UNC/Duke combo makes no sense. From what I've read, UNC holds almost alll the cards, and if they tell the politicians that the SEC only wanted one school from North Carolina, unless the second school had a national name brand like Duke basektball, I don't think that would be too hard of a sell, particularly if NCSU were to end up in the Big XII.

I agree that UNC is not in any hurry, and that is probably the Big Ten's weakness--they are trying to chip away at the ACC, but every time they make a move that doesn't include UNC, it probably means that a UNC move to the Big Ten is less likely.

UNC is the key because without them, the only way the Big Ten makes a move into North Carolina is to take Duke (something they apparently don't want to do). If the SEC can keep the Big Ten out of North Carolina, then any school that they were to add south of there (GT, in particular) would be isolated, left out on an island.

I'm not excited about leaving Virginia to be carved up by other conferences (UVA to the Big Ten, VT probably to the Big XII), but if we have to take Duke to get UNC, that's probably the right thing to do. Adding states is great for the cable footprint (and for that reason, UNC and VT would probably be optimal), but adding UNC and Duke for their basketball brand would be as big--and remember, there will be a lot more basketball on the SEC network than there is football. Besides, you don't want to add too many football powers to the league--all that does is result in canibalization.

The other thing to consider is that when UNC goes, the dam will well and truly break. I would expect the SEC to take 2 ACC, the Big Ten to take at least 2, and the Big XII will probably take six to get to 16 and be on par with the SEC and Big Ten. If it ends up being UNC and Duke to the SEC, UVA and GT to the Big Ten, then Miami, FSU, Clemson, NCSU, VT, and one other school (perhaps Pitt) to the Big XII, that might stabilize things a lot.
Posted by aggressor
Austin, TX
Member since Sep 2011
8714 posts
Posted on 1/21/13 at 11:22 am to
twk,

Solid thoughts. I agree that Duke/UNC is not a bad option even though it isn't as ideal as UNC/and one of the 2 Virginia schools. I could actually see VTech being happier in the Big 12 honestly, esp if they add PItt and thus the WVU/Pitt/VTech rivalry reforms. VTech is a good school and a good football school but they don't have the horses to compete long term in the SEC.

I agree that UNC has the most powerful hand and are the real prize. They have everything a conference wants. I also think they could force a conference to add Duke so long as NC State is "taken care of". Logic though dictates that if NC State doesn't have a place to land though there is no way in hell UNC could hang them out to dry while "taking care" of Duke. Politically you have a hell of a lot more NC State grads in North Carolina with more power than Duke. That said, I don't think getting the Big 12 to take NC State is a problem. NC State would be a great add for the Big 12 if they are looking at adding multiple teams.

From the SEC's perspective Duke is probably worth it if the VA schools are off the table as an add if they are packaged with UNC but not by much. I think there is value in the SEC improving it's basketball product but I disagree with those that think the ACC could survive as a "basketball conference". The Big East was a better "basketball conference" than the ACC and they have completely imploded. The way the TV money works and most of it being wrapped up in the NCAA Tourney it just doesn't make sense.

UNC does have an interesting decision in the end and they hold the cards. The academics probably like the idea of going with UVA and MD to the Big 1G where they could join with the other big AAU public schools. The alumni though likely would prefer the SEC because at their heart they are much more a Southern school than a Midwestern one and they would much rather go to games in Gainesville and Athens as opposed to Columbus and Madison. UNC also has the ability to be a much bigger player in the SEC than they would the Big 1G.

In the SEC, UNC would be an academic and basketball heavyweight that would be seen as a power school (outside of football). They would be accepted quickly and be valued. If UNC joins the Big 1G though they will be an outsider. The Big 1G is run by Ohio State and Michigan and the axis of the school is those giant Midwestern publics. UNC is a strong academic school but they aren't going to intimidate the folks from Michigan or Northwestern or really even Wisconsin. I don't think UNC's ego would deal with being an also ran very well.

Still a lot of moving pieces going on here but in the end it is still UNC that has the trump card and is the key piece. Once they accept the ACC is dead (which they may have already done) is when it gets interesting.
Posted by winyahpercy
Georgetown, South Carolina
Member since Nov 2010
1383 posts
Posted on 1/21/13 at 11:32 am to
from Wikipedia:

James E. Delany (born 1948) is the current commissioner of the Big Ten Conference, a role in which he has served since 1989. He is regarded among college athletics as being influential in the creation of the Bowl Championship Series and its maintenance.

Early life
Delany grew up in South Orange, New Jersey and attended Saint Benedict's Preparatory School in Newark, New Jersey. He attended the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, where he received a Bachelor of Arts degree in political science in 1970. While a student there he played for the university's basketball team, playing on two squads that reached the NCAA Final Four. His senior season he was co-captain of the team.[1]

He remained at North Carolina for law school, receiving his Juris Doctor (J.D.) in 1973.

[edit] Professional career

From 1973 to 1974, Delany was employed as counsel to the North Carolina Senate Judiciary Committee. From there, he was hired to the position of staff attorney for the North Carolina Justice Department. In 1975 he moved on to a position in the National Collegiate Athletic Association, working as an enforcement representative. He remained in this position for four years before moving on to the Ohio Valley Conference as its commissioner. He remained commissioner of that conference until 1989 when he was appointed commissioner of the Big Ten Conference.

Memberships and other positions held include a member of the Collegiate Commissioners Association (CCA), a member of the College Basketball Partnership, vice president of USA Basketball Executive Committee and a member of the board of directors of the University of North Carolina General Alumni Association.
Posted by WDE85
Member since Nov 2012
2161 posts
Posted on 1/21/13 at 11:35 am to
If we get UNC and Duke, what do you do then? UNC in the west and Duke in the east? Get rid of divisions?Move Missouri to the West? Also, I get the hate for NC State, but why the hate for VT? They have a good football program.
Posted by aggressor
Austin, TX
Member since Sep 2011
8714 posts
Posted on 1/21/13 at 12:00 pm to
We likely go to a pod system of some sort at 16 teams otherwise Mizzou moves West but that would seem to imbalance the divisions football wise.

I don't think there is a lot of hate for VTech, just a realization that they aren't that great. VTech has done well in the Big East and now ACC because there aren't a lot of power football programs and they can be an elite football school in that environment. Moving to the SEC though and that changes drastically. They will never have the resources of UGA, UT, or UF, much less Bama, A&M, LSU or Auburn and thus will have trouble competing. They don't really have a comprehensive AD so football is the feature. They are a decent academic school but not AAU. Their biggest value add is TV sets in Virginia and a shot at the DC/Northern Virginia market but they don't assure you of that. They are a solid cultural fit for the SEC though. I think the main point is they are a nice addition but a lot closer to Mizzou than A&M in terms of value and you could argue Mizzou was a stronger add since they own their state and they are an AAU school.

NC State is just a turd though. They really don't do anything well and haven't even won the ACC in football since 1979. They also don't have the resources to ever be better than average in the SEC and will likely always be a lower tier school that really adds almost nothing except decent but unexceptional basketball and some TV sets in NC (though maybe not enough to get cable providers to pick up the SEC Network at a premium).
Posted by winyahpercy
Georgetown, South Carolina
Member since Nov 2010
1383 posts
Posted on 1/21/13 at 12:38 pm to
criteria for expansion (in order) is:

1. market opportunity
2. football value
3. geography/ cultural fit

academics isn't as much a factor except the conference would like to improve the academic prestige average w/ a new school. (i.e. doesn't have to be Stanford, but just not UNLV)

UNC will have options if they leave the ACC (i.e. B10) so they'll never be in play for the SEC. even though football is the primary driver, UNC (& UVA & Duke) will go for the academic consortium of the B10 as well as a better home for their non-football programs. in addition to basketball, these school will look out for lacrosse, men's soccer, field hockey and other sports that the SEC will never embrace. the SEC would have taken Virginia Tech before Missouri if they were interested. probably NCSU too. VT could easily fill 90k seats if they were in the SEC.
Posted by 2Tigs
Mobile, AL
Member since Dec 2012
16 posts
Posted on 1/21/13 at 12:48 pm to
When the power conference world emerges, we all agree that the NCAA's power will diminish. In fact, the power conference schools may have to pull out of the NCAA altogether to realize their football goals. Then, the basketball brands become more valuable as they are monetized through media no longer controlled by the NCAA. These commissioners have to think about several different futures.
Posted by LawC
Member since Nov 2010
714 posts
Posted on 1/21/13 at 1:03 pm to
I've posted on these threads a couple times in the past, and while I don't think the demise of the ACC is coming in the next week like the OP suggests, I think it is imminent once the Maryland v ACC lawsuit is settled

With that said, UNC likely has the option of going to the B1G or SEC. B1G would also consider GaTech for ATL market, but Delaney played ball at UNC, has two sons who went there so UNC would be attractive on a business level and personal level

Dream scenario for UNC (assuming the ACC dies) would be to join the SEC along with UVA, that means the alumni are happy that we stay in a southern conference and athletics are bolstered while the admin is also happy because we stay partners with a longtime rival/friend/sister school in UVA. Unfortunately that seems unlikely as UVA folks are even more uppity about academics than we are (hard to think thats possible) and would prefer the B1G

So then it becomes B1G w/ UVA or SEC w/ dook,state or VT

i'll go ahead and say that UNC/VT to SEC isnt going to happen, going with state wont happen either as long as state has another landing spot

so its really SEC w/ dook or B1G w/ UVA

fans, alumni etc would almost universally prefer SEC option for obvious reason, administration would prefer B1g because of academics, AAU, research money, etc

one thing to keep an eye on who we hire as our next chancellor. Holden Thorp is stepping down in the wake of all this academic scandal and our next chancellor will likely be a crucial figure in deciding which way to go.

Posted by aggressor
Austin, TX
Member since Sep 2011
8714 posts
Posted on 1/21/13 at 1:25 pm to
quote:

criteria for expansion (in order) is:

1. market opportunity
2. football value
3. geography/ cultural fit

academics isn't as much a factor except the conference would like to improve the academic prestige average w/ a new school. (i.e. doesn't have to be Stanford, but just not UNLV)

UNC will have options if they leave the ACC (i.e. B10) so they'll never be in play for the SEC. even though football is the primary driver, UNC (& UVA & Duke) will go for the academic consortium of the B10 as well as a better home for their non-football programs. in addition to basketball, these school will look out for lacrosse, men's soccer, field hockey and other sports that the SEC will never embrace. the SEC would have taken Virginia Tech before Missouri if they were interested. probably NCSU too. VT could easily fill 90k seats if they were in the SEC.


VTech has a 65k stadium so it is a stretch that they will just start selling out a 90k stadium just by moving to the SEC. While I certainly agree market opportunity is #1 when it comes to expansion academics are likely #2 if not #3 when it comes to the "power conferences". The SEC made a major upgrade academically by adding A&M and Mizzou and there is a lot of pressure to continue on that path. If the SEC adds 2 more AAU schools they likely will have enough momentum to get some of the other schools in the AAU and it will raise the overall reputation of the conference and thus individual schools.

Why do you think schools desire to have great football programs? It encourages alumni support and provides publicity for the school. That equates to more money and more interest in the school which then equates to more applicants and more funding. If you get alumni to come to campus and support the football team inevitably they will also donate to the school itself. That's the end prize.
Posted by winyahpercy
Georgetown, South Carolina
Member since Nov 2010
1383 posts
Posted on 1/21/13 at 1:47 pm to
quote:

Why do you think schools desire to have great football programs?


because it's a lot more fun than having crappy football programs. there is a correlation w/ success on the football field to # of applications, which increases the university standards but that is minimal relative to the big picture. winning a national championship and playing weekly on TV will help your academics more than hosting Duke for homecoming every other year. and adding Duke may be helpful when you average the academic scores for the SEC brochure, but it won't put much in the coffers. they'll never get weened off the teat. a let's be real, SEC schools pack in 80-100k fans and generate millions in licensed sales not because of the alumni, but the Harvey Updykes that don't care about the academic prestige of the school. GT can't sell out 55k Grant Field in Atlanta nor can UNC sell out 62k Kenan, which are both in Metro Areas larger than any SEC MSA (except Nashville is a little bigger than RDC)
Posted by molsusports
Member since Jul 2004
36112 posts
Posted on 1/21/13 at 1:51 pm to
quote:

Why do you think schools desire to have great football programs?


Money and prestige are the easy answers.

But a lot of schools end up losing money on football - there are a few schools make a ton of money (mostly in the Big 10 and SEC, plus OU and Texas type schools) and a lot of schools struggling to break even or losing money.

FWIW I agree with your assessment that administrators believe having a better football program with generate more money - but that is also program dependent (I don't believe that argument when I hear it from fans and administrators at Tulane for example)
Posted by Ash'sProstheticHand
Member since Nov 2012
1146 posts
Posted on 1/21/13 at 2:25 pm to
quote:

adding Duke may be helpful when you average the academic scores for the SEC brochure, but it won't put much in the coffers. they'll never get weened off the teat. a let's be real, SEC schools pack in 80-100k fans and generate millions in licensed sales not because of the alumni, but the Harvey Updykes that don't care about the academic prestige of the school.


You're right about Duke's sad support for their football program, but they still have the potential to generate a lot of money. You mentioned licensing. Duke's basketball program is popular enough (nationwide) to lead to a huge # of sales. They really are a national brand.

Next, think about basketball in general. I agree that at this moment, it isn't the cash cow that football is. However, that will probably change in the near future. First, look at March Madness revenue statistics. They're growing at a high rate and show no signs of slowing down (in fact, the growth in its popularity seems to be speeding up). Second, as a whole, college basketball as a consumer product is still relatively undeveloped and nowhere near being fully monetized. Yes ESPN covers a lot of big games and do numerous national broadcasts, but most of a school's games are covered by some crap local channel in non-HD with dipshit announcers. Polish up the production value, increase the number of games covered, and you're suddenly looking at a much more financially valuable product. Slive apparently agrees as he's trying to make basketball a big part of the SEC Network. A final factor to point out: I don't know what's going to happen with football due to all the concussion studies, but if that leads to a decrease in popularity or a decrease in the quality of the product as fewer elite athletes go that route, college basketball could see an explosion in popularity.

So yea. In short, Duke could end up bringing a lot of green to the table.
Posted by winyahpercy
Georgetown, South Carolina
Member since Nov 2010
1383 posts
Posted on 1/21/13 at 3:14 pm to
Duke's basketball program probably doesn't generate as much revenue as Vandy's football program. and college basketball is very developed as a consumer product. the problem is that the NCAA owns the product (i.e. the NCAA Tournament). this is why the conferences don't want to turn football over to the NCAA just to get a playoffs. conferences/schools own the bowl system and the BCS, so they don't have to share any money w/ Hampden-Sydney or Slippery Rock Univ. NCAA uses the money from D-I basketball to pay for all of the championships (D-II/III, lacrosse, field hockey, water polo, fencing, etc)
Posted by TideJoe
Member since Sep 2012
939 posts
Posted on 1/22/13 at 6:20 am to
quote:

Duke's basketball program probably doesn't generate as much revenue as Vandy's football program.


Again..... they're making money somewhere because their AD brought in just as much as UNC last year..... $80MM. That's considerably higher than Ole Miss, MSU, Mizzou, Vandy, and just slight behind Scar ($83MM) and Kentucky ($84MM).
Posted by winyahpercy
Georgetown, South Carolina
Member since Nov 2010
1383 posts
Posted on 1/22/13 at 10:55 am to
quote:

quote:


Duke's basketball program probably doesn't generate as much revenue as Vandy's football program.




Again..... they're making money somewhere because their AD brought in just as much as UNC last year..... $80MM. That's considerably higher than Ole Miss, MSU, Mizzou, Vandy, and just slight behind Scar ($83MM) and Kentucky ($84MM).


how are you finding Duke's athletic dept. budget? in most reputable reports, private schools like Duke aren't listed. also, private schools normally adminster their booster clubs w/i the AD, whereas public schools have a separate entity to get away from some of the public oversight with the daily management. Anyway, UNC has a $75m budget (USA Today Report), which I'd guess would be bigger than Duke.
Posted by Quidam65
Q Continuum
Member since Jun 2010
19307 posts
Posted on 1/22/13 at 11:35 am to
quote:

Virginia State Legislature wont allow that.


They would be OK with it, since each school would have a secure home afterwards (UVA in the B1G and VT in the SEC). Only if one of them had a home and the other one didn't would you have problems.
Posted by Quidam65
Q Continuum
Member since Jun 2010
19307 posts
Posted on 1/22/13 at 11:54 am to
quote:

Virginia Tech would be a decent add but UVA is better


In terms of research $$$ UVA isn't pulling its weight as an AAU member; VT was at #41 in the recent rankings while UVA was at #73. (Even NC State was ahead of them at #44, which isn't as good as #7 Duke or #17 UNC but would still put them in the top half of the SEC in that regard.)
Posted by molsusports
Member since Jul 2004
36112 posts
Posted on 1/22/13 at 11:59 am to
quote:

nyway, UNC has a $75m budget (USA Today Report), which I'd guess would be bigger than Duke.


I would think that would be a safe guess - my bias being that NC simply must generate a lot more revenue than Duke presently could on football with the difference in their football stadium size and general success in football (tho never elite NC is occasionally good at football). But weirdly that doesn't seem to be the case (I'm not sure why really)

FWIW, ESPN had a list from 2008 revenues which may or may not be credible - they listed Duke as having revenue of around $67.8M (compared to say Notre Dame at $83.4M and North Carolina at $66.1M

2008 ESPN list

There's a NC reporter who runs a blog to refer to as well:

NC reporter blog lists ACC revenues

His list for 2011-2012

quote:

TOTAL REVENUES in ACC
Florida State – 81,444,039
Virginia – 81,321,219
North Carolina – 78,830,350
Duke – 78,604,895

Clemson – 66,988,424
Boston College – 66,197,029
N.C. State – 65,507,243
Virginia Tech – 64,801,681
Maryland – 62,612,370
Miami – 62,099,601
Georgia Tech – 60,253,966
Wake Forest – 48,776,185


quote:

MEN'S BASKETBALL REVENUE
Duke – 25,665,732
North Carolina – 24,011,268

N.C. State – 12,758,543
Maryland – 12,527,478
Virginia Tech – 11,121,774
Miami – 9,436,615
Florida State – 8,218,140
Wake Forest – 8,158,064
Clemson – 7,027,905
Virginia – 6,985,089
Georgia Tech – 5,754,667
Boston College – 4,997,434


quote:

FOOTBALL REVENUE
Clemson - 39,207,780
Florida State - 34,484,786
Virginia Tech - 32,989,216
Georgia Tech - 32,104,928
Miami - 29,278,750
North Carolina - 27,626,613
N.C. State - 25,482,653
Duke - 25,373,767
Virginia - 24,074,798
Boston College - 21,674,975
Maryland - 19,457,684
Wake Forest - 17,664,266


Is anyone else really surprised how pedestrian the revenues at Va Tech are? Or that Duke somehow generates that much money on football?
Posted by 2Tigs
Mobile, AL
Member since Dec 2012
16 posts
Posted on 1/22/13 at 12:02 pm to
Duke's athletic revenues: $79mm

Complete chart link here
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