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Statistical Analysis of Alabama and officiating
Posted on 11/9/09 at 8:48 am
Posted on 11/9/09 at 8:48 am
Since the game, the officiating is all we've heard about. Forget talking to other LSU fans, look at the national media. The homepage of Yahoo Sports yesterday was about "more officiating controversy" in the LSU-UA game. Nothing about the players or the game.
I don't believe in an SEC-Bama conspiracy. Surely it can be disproven through statistics, right? I decided to look at the last 5 years of Bama's penalties and opponent's penalties (source: SECsports.com)
2005 Penalties: 6th, Opponents Penalties: 4th
2006 Penalties: 4th, Opponents Penalties: 1st
2007 Penalties: 1st, Opponents Penalties: 1st
2008 Penalties: 2nd, Opponents Penalties: 6th
2009 Penalties: 6th, Opponents Penalties: 3rd
Bama has finished in the top half of the SEC in both penalties and opponents' penalties for each of the last 4 seasons and is currently in the top half this season.
There really are 4 possible theories:
1. Bama has been well-coached over the last 5 years to avoid penalties. Bama has been more well-prepared and better coached than its opposition, therefore it needs to commit fewer penalties while enticing its opponents to commit more penalties.
Counterpoint: 2 of the last 5 years includes the Shula era, when Bama wasn't what you'd call well-coached. Florida was 11th in penalties in its 2008 NC season, and most consider Urban Meyer's staff to be well above average.
2. Bama has had good teams over the last 5 years. And being good means you don't have to commit penalties to win, but your opponent might have to grab and hold, push off, etc. to stay with you.
Counterpoint: LSU had a good team in 2007 when it won the NC, and it was 12th in both penalties and opponents' penalties that year.
3. It's a statistical anomaly. Penalties are somewhat random and luck has gone Bama's way over the last 5 seasons.
Counterpoint: True randomization would produce more instability for individual teams. The odds of one team remaining in the top 6 for 5 straight seasons in both categories are very slim.
4. SEC officials favor Bama. The SEC office is in Birmingham, most officials are born in the state of AL, the SEC does well financially when Bama does well.
Counterpoint: SEC executives and its officials risk federal prison sentences for rigging games, and it's not worth it for them to tilt games in one team's favor.
Which theory is correct, and is there one that I'm missing?
I don't believe in an SEC-Bama conspiracy. Surely it can be disproven through statistics, right? I decided to look at the last 5 years of Bama's penalties and opponent's penalties (source: SECsports.com)
2005 Penalties: 6th, Opponents Penalties: 4th
2006 Penalties: 4th, Opponents Penalties: 1st
2007 Penalties: 1st, Opponents Penalties: 1st
2008 Penalties: 2nd, Opponents Penalties: 6th
2009 Penalties: 6th, Opponents Penalties: 3rd
Bama has finished in the top half of the SEC in both penalties and opponents' penalties for each of the last 4 seasons and is currently in the top half this season.
There really are 4 possible theories:
1. Bama has been well-coached over the last 5 years to avoid penalties. Bama has been more well-prepared and better coached than its opposition, therefore it needs to commit fewer penalties while enticing its opponents to commit more penalties.
Counterpoint: 2 of the last 5 years includes the Shula era, when Bama wasn't what you'd call well-coached. Florida was 11th in penalties in its 2008 NC season, and most consider Urban Meyer's staff to be well above average.
2. Bama has had good teams over the last 5 years. And being good means you don't have to commit penalties to win, but your opponent might have to grab and hold, push off, etc. to stay with you.
Counterpoint: LSU had a good team in 2007 when it won the NC, and it was 12th in both penalties and opponents' penalties that year.
3. It's a statistical anomaly. Penalties are somewhat random and luck has gone Bama's way over the last 5 seasons.
Counterpoint: True randomization would produce more instability for individual teams. The odds of one team remaining in the top 6 for 5 straight seasons in both categories are very slim.
4. SEC officials favor Bama. The SEC office is in Birmingham, most officials are born in the state of AL, the SEC does well financially when Bama does well.
Counterpoint: SEC executives and its officials risk federal prison sentences for rigging games, and it's not worth it for them to tilt games in one team's favor.
Which theory is correct, and is there one that I'm missing?
This post was edited on 11/9/09 at 8:49 am
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Posted on 11/9/09 at 8:51 am to RidiculousHype
On the road right now... And without reading all that..... OMFG this is a sad post! lol
Posted on 11/9/09 at 8:54 am to RidiculousHype
I am not a conspiracy theorist, but I do believe the SEC needs to relocate their headquarters and do a complete review of every football official.
Posted on 11/9/09 at 8:54 am to RidiculousHype
quote:
most officials are born in the state of AL
Proof please or remove this from your post.
Posted on 11/9/09 at 8:56 am to RidiculousHype
quote:
1. Bama has been well-coached over the last 5 years to avoid penalties.
They were holding all game, right infront of the refs
Posted on 11/9/09 at 8:57 am to W4LSU
quote:
They were holding all game, right infront of the refs
This is the dumbest shite I've ever heard. Holding occurs on almost every play you idiot. I love how when people are trying to prove that officials are biased they always cite "holding" because there is no way to prove or disprove a holding call 95% of the time. Get a life.
Posted on 11/9/09 at 9:37 am to RMFTBama
So back to the original point,
Which theory is correct? 1-better coached, 2-better team, 3-luck, 4-favoritism?
And whichever theory you pick (this goes for both LSU and Bama fans), refute the counterpoint I made to it.
Which theory is correct? 1-better coached, 2-better team, 3-luck, 4-favoritism?
And whichever theory you pick (this goes for both LSU and Bama fans), refute the counterpoint I made to it.
Posted on 11/9/09 at 9:45 am to RidiculousHype
Apparently you conveniently refused to respond to my post. Please post evidence that the "majority of officials are born in Alabama" or remove that from the original post. If you want an honest opinion then you cannot LIE in the original post.
Posted on 11/9/09 at 9:47 am to Klaus
quote:
SEC needs to relocate their headquarters
I agree. This should be done and if only bama fans are against it, that might tell you something.
Posted on 11/9/09 at 9:51 am to RMFTBama
quote:
Apparently you conveniently refused to respond to my post. Please post evidence that the "majority of officials are born in Alabama" or remove that from the original post. If you want an honest opinion then you cannot LIE in the original post.
Each theory is presented as if it were spoken by a proponent of said theory. If you read the whole post, you would have seen that I gave 4 possible theories, each with their own "case" and opposing "counterpoint". It's up to you to decide which theory is correct.
So which one do you think is correct?
Posted on 11/9/09 at 9:55 am to tigercavor
there is no doubt the replay official was either blind or biased. anyone watching the replay would agree that it was an interception. that is a fact!
Posted on 11/9/09 at 10:40 am to drjeff17
Better coached
/thread
/thread
Posted on 11/9/09 at 10:43 am to nothingbutawinner00
What about under Shula?
What about Florida last year? They were poorly coached?
What about Florida last year? They were poorly coached?
Posted on 11/9/09 at 10:51 am to RidiculousHype
"I agree. This should be done and if only bama fans are against it, that might tell you something."
By all means move the frickin office if it will stop all the frickin whining!!!
BTW, while you're bitching to the SEC office about all our advantages. How about telling the SEC office to quit giving every one of our conference rivals a bye week prior to playing us. Check those stats out. Our conference rivals have had 17 (Count them...SEVENTEEN!!!) bye weeks prior to playing Alabama and the next closest SEC team had 6 teams with bye weeks the week prior to playing them. They obviously aren't doing as good a job at protecting us as they can.
By all means move the frickin office if it will stop all the frickin whining!!!
BTW, while you're bitching to the SEC office about all our advantages. How about telling the SEC office to quit giving every one of our conference rivals a bye week prior to playing us. Check those stats out. Our conference rivals have had 17 (Count them...SEVENTEEN!!!) bye weeks prior to playing Alabama and the next closest SEC team had 6 teams with bye weeks the week prior to playing them. They obviously aren't doing as good a job at protecting us as they can.
Posted on 11/9/09 at 10:55 am to Govt Tide
Look dumb arse gump, why are you guys so fricking stupid?
The SEC office does not determine bye weeks. The individual schools do in their scheduling process. Do you think Bama just gets given a gift of a bye week before their toughest opponent (LSU)? No Bama plans this in scheduling. Just like a lot of teams know Bama will be a tough game and schedule a bye week before Bama. AU had this in the 80's when everyone scheduled a bye before playing AU.
Damn you are dumb.
The SEC office does not determine bye weeks. The individual schools do in their scheduling process. Do you think Bama just gets given a gift of a bye week before their toughest opponent (LSU)? No Bama plans this in scheduling. Just like a lot of teams know Bama will be a tough game and schedule a bye week before Bama. AU had this in the 80's when everyone scheduled a bye before playing AU.
Damn you are dumb.
Posted on 11/9/09 at 11:00 am to RidiculousHype
I'm a big fan of logic and your post is well thought out. The problem is that each year probably has a different reason. For instance, just because Shula is widely regarded as a bad coach doesn't necessarily mean his teams are going to commit more penalties. The fact is, aggressiveness has as much to do with penalties as anything and our Alabama teams under his tutelage definitely lacked that quality.
Earlier in the year we were one of the most penalized teams in the conference. Saban has been chewing the players out about it and it has been corrected.
So not every statistic is going to have a nice neat reason for it. There are too many unmeasurable quantities. I can tell you for sure that number 4 is absolutely ridiculous. If that were the case, we'd be first in fewest penalties and that damn punt sure wouldn't have been on the one inch line.
Earlier in the year we were one of the most penalized teams in the conference. Saban has been chewing the players out about it and it has been corrected.
So not every statistic is going to have a nice neat reason for it. There are too many unmeasurable quantities. I can tell you for sure that number 4 is absolutely ridiculous. If that were the case, we'd be first in fewest penalties and that damn punt sure wouldn't have been on the one inch line.
Posted on 11/9/09 at 1:03 pm to tuck
quote:
I'm a big fan of logic and your post is well thought out. The problem is that each year probably has a different reason. For instance, just because Shula is widely regarded as a bad coach doesn't necessarily mean his teams are going to commit more penalties. The fact is, aggressiveness has as much to do with penalties as anything and our Alabama teams under his tutelage definitely lacked that quality.
Earlier in the year we were one of the most penalized teams in the conference. Saban has been chewing the players out about it and it has been corrected.
So not every statistic is going to have a nice neat reason for it. There are too many unmeasurable quantities. I can tell you for sure that number 4 is absolutely ridiculous. If that were the case, we'd be first in fewest penalties and that damn punt sure wouldn't have been on the one inch line.
I appreciate a rational, civil response. I fault both fanbases for this being so rare.
Maybe you're correct that Shula's Tide kept penalties low because they weren't very aggressive. But Saban gets his players to be aggressive yet penalties have remained low. Maybe they're better coached under Saban, so that aggressiveness doesn't lead to penalties?
This solves half the equation (penalties committed), but not the other half (opponents' penalties).
Opponents' penalties should be very close to random fluctuation from year to year. Remember, everyone in the SEC plays basically the same pool of teams. Does a team have an ability to cause its opponents to commit penalties?
Maybe the best teams are so big and fast that opponents have to grab, hold, push, pull, etc to stay in the game? But the data doesn't bear this out: in 2008, the team whose opponents commited the most penalties was Mississippi State. In 2007 it was a 6-6 Alabama team. In 2006 it was another 6-6 Alabama team. In 2005 it was Vanderbilt.
What do you think tuck? As far as I'm concerned only tuck need reply to this message, he has proven he has some intelligence and ability to read and comprehend.
This post was edited on 11/9/09 at 1:04 pm
Posted on 11/9/09 at 1:08 pm to RidiculousHype
Why don't you do these stats for every team and get back to us? We'll try to prove if the entire top half of the SEC is getting special treatment.
Posted on 11/9/09 at 1:11 pm to RidiculousHype
Does anyone remember the 2007 season when Lsu was so heavily penalized for personal fouls and the argument was that the more heavily penalized teams in cfb usually win the nc? What happened to that argument?
Posted on 11/9/09 at 1:21 pm to labamafan
Stats don't tell the whole story on officiating or on penalties because they do not take into account the context of when they were called in the game or how they affected the flow of the game. How many negated big gains, 1st downs, turnovers, scoring plays, etc... That is way more imporant that the # of penalties. Timing is everything.
I've been watching SEC football for decades. Everyone I know thinks that Bama has always gotten the benefit of the doubt from refs. Hell if you lived in Birmingham and worked at the SEC office, is it really that hard to imagine the free hunting trips, vacations, fishing trips, etc... that fall in the laps of SEC office staff who provide any help whatsoever to Bama???
The answer is simple - relocate the office to a neutral site - say St. Louis for example.
I've been watching SEC football for decades. Everyone I know thinks that Bama has always gotten the benefit of the doubt from refs. Hell if you lived in Birmingham and worked at the SEC office, is it really that hard to imagine the free hunting trips, vacations, fishing trips, etc... that fall in the laps of SEC office staff who provide any help whatsoever to Bama???
The answer is simple - relocate the office to a neutral site - say St. Louis for example.
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