Stat Model Picks for AU - UGA

I started attempting my own predictive model similar to the model SoG runs a few weeks ago. It basically uses each teams statistics relative to your opponents averages (P5 only) and uses those numbers to come up with a range of potential scores and a % chance of victory for each team.

Average Prediction:
UGA - 19
AU - 17

High end:
AU - 33
UGA - 30

Low end:
UGA - 8
AU - 5

Running this 10000 times yielded a 52% chance of victory for AU. Even though the average score was in UGA's favor, I'm assuming the Jekyll/Hyde nature of AU's offense swung quite a few of these in their favor.

I really, really, really want to see this game end 8-5

I messed up the math. It is not 52% AU. It is 48.9% AU, 47.5% UGA, 3.6% tie. (I haven't figured out how to deal with ties yet, so I'll distribute them 50/50.)

AU - 50.7% Chance of victory
UGA - 49.3 %