SP+ Returning Production - SEC Football 2021

SP+ Returning Production - 2021 SEC

OVERALL (Natl Rank)
1. Ole Miss (22)
2. LSU (30)
3. Mississippi St (34)
4. Arkansas (39)
5. Auburn (54)
6. Missouri (56)
7. Vanderbilt (78)
8. Georgia (92)
9. Kentucky (98)
10. Texas A&M (99)
11. Florida (108)
12. Alabama (110)
13. Tennessee (117)
14. South Carolina (124)


OFFENSE (Natl Rank)
1. Georgia (20)
2. Missouri (27)
3. LSU (30)
4. Ole Miss (44)
5. Vanderbilt (50)
6. Auburn (60)
7. Mississippi State (62)
8. Arkansas (67)
9. Kentucky (87)
10. South Carolina (102)
11. Tennessee (103)
12. Texas A&M (120)
13. Florida (125)
14. Alabama (126)


DEFENSE (Natl Rank)
1. Arkansas (15)
2. Mississippi State (16)
3. Ole Miss (20)
4. Alabama (41)
5. LSU (44)
6. Texas A&M (57)
7. Auburn (62)
8. Florida (67)
9. Missouri (89)
10. Kentucky (97)
11. Vanderbilt (102)
12. Tennessee (107)
13. South Carolina (124)
14. Georgia (126)

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The weighting for the offensive returning production formula changes from year to year as I get more data to play with. The current iteration is as follows:

Returning QB passing yards: 29%
Returning RB rushing yards: 5%
Returning WR/TE receiving yards: 34%
Returning OL snaps: 33%

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Defense is a little bit trickier. The units aren't quite as well-defined -- teams play with three or four linemen, three or four linebackers, four or five defensive backs -- but this is approximately what goes into the defensive returning production figure:

Returning tackles: 56%
Returning tackles for loss: 6%
Returning sacks: 7%
Returning passes defensed: 31%

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Is the transfer portal accounted for?
As well as possible, yes. When your team adds a transfer, I add the new player's production to both the team's numerator and denominator. There is an increasing amount of transfers to keep track of with each passing year, but I think I've caught most of them.

For all 2021 transfers, I am assuming that before the season begins, the NCAA will finally get around to granting immediate eligibility for all first-time or graduate transfers. Obviously this might not happen -- counting on the NCAA to do anything athlete-friendly is typically a fool's errand -- and I might have to make adjustments closer to the season. But for now all transfers count toward the 2021 production formula.

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