re: SOGology - NCAA Tournament Projections as of 1-13-25 : 11 teams in, 2 first 5 out

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I could see a scenario over the next 2-3 weeks where AU drops a few without Broome and becomes a nightmare as a 3-5 seed.

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Auburn would have to really have a tough stretch to drop to a 3-5 seed. I think their floor at this point is a 3 seed, and that's if they lose the majority of their tough road games (Georgia, Ole Miss, Bama, Kentucky, A&M). They just aren't going to lose more than 1-2 home games even in the worst scenario, so you are looking at an overall worst case scenario of going like 10-5 over the last 15.........which puts them at 25-6 (13-5). That probably has them sitting at a #2 seed I'd guess (maybe still #1 given their depth of quality wins and schedule difficulty).

Oklahoma definitely needs to find a way to win 3 of their next 5

- vs Texas
- vs South Carolina
- @ Arkansas
- @ Texas A&M
- vs Vanderbilt

If they are sitting at 16-5 (3-5) when they go to Auburn on 2/4 they'll be in decent shape. 15-6 (2-6) definitely not feeling great with @ Auburn, vs Tennessee, @ Missouri on deck. Anything worse than that over the next 5 and they're in trouble.

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Us old timers look in shock at seeing Auburn and Alabama 1 and 2.

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Live shot of Hell this morning.

Oops

:)

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I don't think --especially with the expanded conferences -- that there's any real ceiling for bids. The final number just basically comes down to distribution of losses in conference play.

Just due to all the quality OOC wins, there are 15 SEC teams that will definitely get a bid if they finish 9-9 in conference play. The vast majority of those get in at 8-10.

For the SEC to only get 8-9 bids would mean 7 or 8 teams all finish worse than 8-10 and that's pretty unlikely.

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The issue with basketball there are so many popcorn state conferences and each gets an auto bid. So their reg season winner likely locks on then some random team wins conference playoffs and gets auto bid. That takes away bubble teams.

And its really hard for so many good SEC teams to win due to depth. So that usually takes care of itself and you have teams 9-12 in the bubble range. Then these surprise popcorn conferences gobble up the spots that teams 9-12 might take. Or committee wants balance and gives extra slot to other conferences. They like Cinderella teams too.

For OU, making it in just extends the Moser agony. He has no system. Just players dribbling and shooting late in clock. Better to bite the coaching bullet now than extend another year if he makes it.

Even if we win our next 3 games to get to 3-3 in conf (we won’t) then we start playing the good teams.

Nice work Georgie!