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SOGology - NCAA Tournament Projections as of 1-13-25 : 11 teams in, 2 first 5 out
Posted on 1/13/25 at 11:01 am
Posted on 1/13/25 at 11:01 am
- Top 2 seeds
- 4 of the top 7 seeds
- 6 of the top 12 seeds
- 8 of the top 17 seeds
However, the teams that were previously barely in lost both their games last week (Arkansas/Vanderbilt/Texas) and dropped out, going down to 11 teams in. Arkansas and Vanderbilt still within 5 spots of being in.
LSU and South Carolina are the only teams well out of the picture.
- 4 of the top 7 seeds
- 6 of the top 12 seeds
- 8 of the top 17 seeds
However, the teams that were previously barely in lost both their games last week (Arkansas/Vanderbilt/Texas) and dropped out, going down to 11 teams in. Arkansas and Vanderbilt still within 5 spots of being in.
LSU and South Carolina are the only teams well out of the picture.
This post was edited on 1/13/25 at 11:04 am
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Posted on 1/13/25 at 11:06 am to SummerOfGeorge
Glad to see ya post this.
Might be confirmation bias on my part, but it aligns with what I've seen. Examples from UGA are the loss @ Ole Miss and the close win vs. St. John's. I'm not bitching about STJ being one spot over UGA, only saying that your weighting does a good job of being indicative of on court results.
Didn't State and Ole Miss beat Memphis pretty easily? Memphis has a hell of a resumé tho, but MSU and OM will get more chances in conference play than Memphis will to improve their SOG ranking.
Might be confirmation bias on my part, but it aligns with what I've seen. Examples from UGA are the loss @ Ole Miss and the close win vs. St. John's. I'm not bitching about STJ being one spot over UGA, only saying that your weighting does a good job of being indicative of on court results.
Didn't State and Ole Miss beat Memphis pretty easily? Memphis has a hell of a resumé tho, but MSU and OM will get more chances in conference play than Memphis will to improve their SOG ranking.
This post was edited on 1/13/25 at 11:09 am
Posted on 1/13/25 at 11:08 am to SummerOfGeorge
Pretty crazy - Alabama played 3 of the 4 #13 seeds in this projection - McNeese State, Arkansas State and Kent State.
Posted on 1/13/25 at 11:08 am to Murph4HOF
We’ve actually dropped as we were a 6 seed a few weeks ago.
Our résumé has gotten better but we’ve definitely gone down in some of the performance based metrics. The games around Christmas were closer than they should’ve been
I saw Torvik has us at 94% chance to be an at-large bid. Seems really high at this point
Our résumé has gotten better but we’ve definitely gone down in some of the performance based metrics. The games around Christmas were closer than they should’ve been
I saw Torvik has us at 94% chance to be an at-large bid. Seems really high at this point
This post was edited on 1/13/25 at 11:10 am
Posted on 1/13/25 at 11:09 am to SummerOfGeorge
Missouri? Are you out of your mind?! Last year Mizzou went winless in the SEC games.
This post was edited on 1/13/25 at 11:10 am
Posted on 1/13/25 at 11:12 am to SummerOfGeorge
Houston is a weird one. They beat the absolute crap out of all their Q2-Q4 opponents in such a way that they are #3 in KenPom and #1 in Torvik, but have no Q1 wins (0-3).
Not a team you want to see in the R32 as a 4 seed
Not a team you want to see in the R32 as a 4 seed
Posted on 1/13/25 at 11:12 am to diddlydawg7
quote:
I saw Torvik has us at 94% chance to be an at-large bid. Seems really high at this point
Yea I saw those on twitter yesterday and they all seemed pretty high (I think Texas like was 74%?).
However, you guys are in great shape outside of just losing a ton of games over the last 15. You've got 2 really good wins locked (SJU, Kentucky), a bunch of solid wins (@ Tech, ND, GCU, Oklahoma) and no bad losses. And because of this league, your chances for bad losses are minimal - vs Carolina, vs LSU are really it.
If you guys get to 8-10 in league you are good to go I'd think.
This post was edited on 1/13/25 at 11:13 am
Posted on 1/13/25 at 11:13 am to TideCPA
quote:
Houston is a weird one. They beat the absolute crap out of all their Q2-Q4 opponents in such a way that they are #3 in KenPom and #1 in Torvik, but have no Q1 wins (0-3).
Not a team you want to see in the R32 as a 4 seed
Nobody plays a season out in a way to dominate KenPom/Torvik like Houston
Posted on 1/13/25 at 11:15 am to SummerOfGeorge
Us old timers look in shock at seeing Auburn and Alabama 1 and 2.
Posted on 1/13/25 at 11:16 am to Crimsonians
quote:
Us old timers look in shock at seeing Auburn and Alabama 1 and 2.
I think old and young are still a little taken back by it
This post was edited on 1/13/25 at 11:17 am
Posted on 1/13/25 at 11:19 am to SummerOfGeorge
I still think Kentucky is going to have to outperform to sneak into a top 4 seed.
Posted on 1/13/25 at 11:21 am to SummerOfGeorge
How did you come up with your formula? Is it based on observation of previous years' seedings?
Posted on 1/13/25 at 11:22 am to Bham Bammer
quote:
How did you come up with your formula? Is it based on observation of previous years' seedings?
Somewhat, though every year seems to be a bit different in the give and take between the 3 big factors : overall record quality, big wins/bad losses, how good you are (KenPom).
This post was edited on 1/13/25 at 11:23 am
Posted on 1/13/25 at 11:23 am to diddlydawg7
quote:I wouldn't look at us as dropping as much as it is other teams improving.
We’ve actually dropped as we were a 6 seed a few weeks ago.
Ole Miss is a good team but I expected the UGA game at the Pavilion to be closer than it was.
Posted on 1/13/25 at 11:23 am to kywildcatfanone
quote:
I still think Kentucky is going to have to outperform to sneak into a top 4 seed.
Their resume in terms of quality wins & losses seems really good, so it has to be the defensive metrics dropping them, right?
Posted on 1/13/25 at 11:29 am to SummerOfGeorge
Got it. Excited to see how this week goes.
Posted on 1/13/25 at 11:33 am to Murph4HOF
quote:
I wouldn't look at us as dropping as much as it is other teams improving.
No, we definitely dropped in all performance based metrics. It’s pretty accessible info
Posted on 1/13/25 at 11:35 am to diddlydawg7
quote:
No, we definitely dropped in all performance based metrics. It’s pretty accessible info
Torvik
#26 post-Notre Dame
#27 post-Grand Canyon
#28 post-Buffalo
#28 post-Charleston Southern
#33 post-SC St
#35 post-Ole Miss
#31 post-Kentucky
#30 post-Oklahoma
Dropped about 7 spots after the ugly SCSU game and the Ole Miss loss, but worked your way back up 5 spots the last 2.
This post was edited on 1/13/25 at 11:36 am
Posted on 1/13/25 at 11:42 am to Murph4HOF
quote:
Didn't State and Ole Miss beat Memphis pretty easily? Memphis has a hell of a resumé tho, but MSU and OM will get more chances in conference play than Memphis will to improve their SOG ranking.
Sorry Murph just saw this.
State beat Memphis pretty easily. Memphis beat Ole Miss by 17. They definitely squeezed out as much as they could in the non-conference - beat Missouri, San Fran, UConn, Michigan St, Clemson, Ole Miss (lost to Auburn, Ark St, MSU). But they needed to because the American is pretty bad this season.
Posted on 1/13/25 at 12:16 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:Lol I watched that game and all I remember was it wasn't close.
Memphis beat Ole Miss by 17.
Thanks man.
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