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SOG Post-Bowl Rankings : Strength Record (Resume) and Ovr Efficiency ("how good are you")
Posted on 1/3/23 at 3:00 pm
Posted on 1/3/23 at 3:00 pm
Strength of Record is how good your wins were, how bad your losses were, etc. An overall number to grade your season based on your results (not numbers that say how good you are, numbers that say how good your results are). In general, this is what I would use to put together a Top 25 poll or final 4 or whatever. I think it's reasonable to have some tweaks in there if 2 teams are basically even and one beat another head to head if you choose (say Alabama/Tennessee, FSU/LSU or Texas/Texas Tech).
Also, keep in mind this is post-bowl games (but obviously pre-CFP NCG).
This is just an example of how the formula works in general (you can download each game result from the awesome collegefootballdata.com website).
And the SOGA+ that I've run all year (again, post-bowl games).
SOGa+ would have Georgia as at -10.0 for the title game (currently sitting at UGA -13.5).
Cheers to a great 2023 to everybody over here
Also, keep in mind this is post-bowl games (but obviously pre-CFP NCG).
This is just an example of how the formula works in general (you can download each game result from the awesome collegefootballdata.com website).
And the SOGA+ that I've run all year (again, post-bowl games).
SOGa+ would have Georgia as at -10.0 for the title game (currently sitting at UGA -13.5).
Cheers to a great 2023 to everybody over here
This post was edited on 1/3/23 at 3:08 pm
7
Posted on 1/3/23 at 3:07 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Kentucky beats the piss out of Louisville every year and you rank them that high?
Posted on 1/3/23 at 3:08 pm to Lynxrufus2012
quote:
Kentucky beats the piss out of Louisville every year and you rank them that high?
Vanderbilt beat the piss out of Kentucky and they are below you. So......shoulder shrug.
Posted on 1/3/23 at 3:12 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Bama bias is real.
Posted on 1/3/23 at 3:54 pm to Mulkey Man
quote:
Bama bias is real.
For the first time in history math favors Bama
Posted on 1/3/23 at 3:55 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
For the first time in history math favors Bama
Don't see it.
Ohio State lost to higher rated teams on your chart, and has the better wins.
Posted on 1/3/23 at 4:08 pm to Mulkey Man
quote:
Ohio State lost to higher rated teams on your chart, and has the better wins.
- Ohio State has a loss at home by 22 (to #3)
- Alabama had 2 losses, both on the road, by 3 and 1 (to #5 and #11)
- Ohio States best win was Penn State (#6) - the best win of the 2
- Alabama played 6 of their 7 toughest opponents away from home (and went 5-2) (@ #5 Tennessee, @ #8 Texas, (N) #9 Kansas State, @ #11 LSU, , @ #13 Ole Miss, @ #32 Arkansas)
- Ohio State played 3 of their 7 toughest opponents away from home ((N) #1 Georgia, @ #6 Penn State, @ #24 Maryland)
- Alabama's average opponent was better than Ohio State's average opponent
So, all of that leads to Alabama being very slightly above Ohio State in the numbers. Either way, it's close enough between Alabama/Tennessee/Ohio State/Penn State that you could do any combination of the 4 of them and it be entirely reasonable.
The tiers seem pretty good to me - ranking any of the teams in the tier in any order is reasonable.
1. Georgia (10+)
2. TCU (9+)
3. Michigan (8+)
4. Alabama, Ohio State, Tennessee, Penn State (7+)
8. Tulane, Washington, Kansas State (6+)
11. Clemson, LSU, Oregon, FSU, Troy, USC, Oregon State, Miss St (5+)
19. Utah, Notre Dame, Texas (4+)
Personally I'd probably keep Ohio State at #4 because of the way they played in a loss as the #4 team.
This post was edited on 1/3/23 at 4:13 pm
Posted on 1/3/23 at 4:17 pm to SummerOfGeorge
LSU ahead of A&M. List is shite.
I'm ready for the returning production thread and you already know why.
I'm ready for the returning production thread and you already know why.
Posted on 1/3/23 at 4:18 pm to TigerLunatik
quote:
I'm ready for the returning production thread and you already know why.
I don't even know how people can do those at this point. You basically have to figure out how to treat production at other locations and how it transfers to a different level, different scheme, etc.
I'm sure somebody has a method that has produced some decent results out there.
Posted on 1/3/23 at 4:18 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Georgia didn’t play anybody pawwl..oh wait ..beat 4 of top 15 end of season. Dang they are so lucky.
Posted on 1/3/23 at 4:19 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Swap Vols and Bama to be taken seriously
Posted on 1/3/23 at 4:21 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
I don't even know how people can do those at this point.
Maybe it can be separated into the amount of starts and snaps a player has played vs giving the actual yardage, TDs, etc. Even then it would probably need to be edited for FBS vs FCS level. Sounds like a giant headache to be honest.
Posted on 1/3/23 at 4:22 pm to Smokeyone
quote:
Swap Vols and Bama to be taken seriously
I'd probably do that on a final poll.
However, it's entirely reasonable to look at it and say that Alabama lost to a Top 5 and Top 15 team on the road on the last play of the game and Tennessee lost to a Top 5 and Top 30 team on the road in games in which they were blown out and say.........yea that makes up for the last second field goal loss on the road.
JMHO
Posted on 1/3/23 at 4:23 pm to TigerLunatik
quote:
Maybe it can be separated into the amount of starts and snaps a player has played vs giving the actual yardage, TDs, etc. Even then it would probably need to be edited for FBS vs FCS level. Sounds like a giant headache to be honest.
Yea, I think it has to be opponent adjusted in some way. At the very least G5/P5/FCS.
I do think that experienced snaps at the same level a kid is transferring too, especially at positions like OL or DB, matter quite a bit in terms of how well they'll translate.
Posted on 1/3/23 at 4:25 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Anyway, apologies for the hijack. Always appreciate the work.
Posted on 1/3/23 at 4:25 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Link to rest please
Posted on 1/3/23 at 4:26 pm to TigerLunatik
quote:
Anyway, apologies for the hijack. Always appreciate the work.
No apologies ever needed Mr. Lunatik
Posted on 1/3/23 at 4:29 pm to Jrv2damac
quote:
Link to rest please
KANSAS
- SOGa+ : #59 overall, #34 offense, #102 defense, #123 special teams
- Resume Rank : #56 (#6 BXII)
Big XII Resume Rank
#2 TCU
#10 Kansas State
#21 Texas
#22 Texas Tech
#54 Oklahoma State
#56 Kansas
#58 Oklahoma
#62 Baylor
#69 West Virginia
#84 Iowa State
This post was edited on 1/3/23 at 4:30 pm
Posted on 1/3/23 at 4:32 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Ty
Posted on 1/3/23 at 4:34 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Interesting. Numbers tell everything.
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