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Posted on 10/23/24 at 12:59 pm to Murph4HOF
fixed
if A&M beats LSU, loses to UT
UGA wins out
UT wins out
LSU loses to A&M and wins out
UGA and UT would be 11-1 and not in SEC CG
could happen easily
if LSU, UT, UGA win out...UT would be sitting at # 3 and not in ship, hell even if LSU loses to Bama UT still sitting out outside even if winning out
so long as LSU splits next two games...pretty much guaranteed a spot in the SEC CG and if 2 out of UT, UGA, A&M win out....we will have atleast 1 with only 1 loss sitting on the outside
if A&M beats LSU, loses to UT
UGA wins out
UT wins out
LSU loses to A&M and wins out
UGA and UT would be 11-1 and not in SEC CG
could happen easily
if LSU, UT, UGA win out...UT would be sitting at # 3 and not in ship, hell even if LSU loses to Bama UT still sitting out outside even if winning out
so long as LSU splits next two games...pretty much guaranteed a spot in the SEC CG and if 2 out of UT, UGA, A&M win out....we will have atleast 1 with only 1 loss sitting on the outside
This post was edited on 10/23/24 at 1:02 pm
Posted on 10/23/24 at 1:01 pm to dstone12
If the loser of the SEC championship has two loses entering the game and leaves with a third, they most likely won’t have to worry about playing in a first round playoff game.
Posted on 10/23/24 at 1:04 pm to captdalton
quote:
If the loser of the SEC championship has two loses entering the game and leaves with a third, they most likely won’t have to worry about playing in a first round playoff game.
Possibly.
Which gives an advantage to a two loss third place sec finisher.
Avoiding the sec champ game could be a positive.
Posted on 10/23/24 at 1:06 pm to captdalton
quote:
If the loser of the SEC championship has two loses entering the game and leaves with a third, they most likely won’t have to worry about playing in a first round playoff game.
yep
especially LSU or A&M...they could easily be bumped out
the craziest scenario would
1) LSU losing to A&M and winning out
2) A&M losing only to Texas
3) UGA and Texas winning out
this would leave the following
quote:
1. LSU (7 - 1) Above Georgia, Texas, and Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4688).
2. Texas A&M (7 - 1) With Georgia and Texas, below LSU based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4375). Above Georgia and Texas based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4375).
3. Georgia (7 - 1) With Texas and Texas A&M, below LSU based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4219). With Texas, below Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4219). Above Texas based on head-to-head record (1-0).
4. Texas (7 - 1) With Georgia and Texas A&M, below LSU based on conference opponent win percentage (0.3906). With Georgia, below Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.3906). Below Georgia based on head-to-head record (0-1).
5. Tennessee (6 - 2)
6. Alabama (5 - 3) With Ole Miss, above Missouri based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (2-0). Above Ole Miss based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (3-1).
7. Ole Miss (5 - 3) With Alabama, above Missouri based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (2-0). Below Alabama based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (2-2).
8. Missouri (5 - 3) Below Alabama and Ole Miss based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (1-1).
9. S Carolina (4 - 4)
10. Arkansas (3 - 5) Above Vandy based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (2-3).
11. Vandy (3 - 5) Below Arkansas based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (1-4).
12. Florida (2 - 6) Above Kentucky based on head-to-head record (1-0).
13. Kentucky (2 - 6) Below Florida based on head-to-head record (0-1).
14. Oklahoma (1 - 7)
15. Miss St (0 - 8) Above Auburn based on conference opponent win percentage (0.6563).
16. Auburn (0 - 8) Below Miss St based on conference opponent win percentage (0.5156).
lets say LSU in the scenario gets revenge on A&M an beats them....the aggies would fall down below Tenner in the rankings and no way 5 SEC teams are getting in.
that would be the all time glory scenario for Texas fans...beat aggie to end the season and then get to watch them fall out the playoffs by getting beat by their other rival while sitting at home with a bye
the scenarios are literally fricking crazy
Posted on 10/23/24 at 1:08 pm to dstone12
quote:
1. Someone important will get injured in this process and may affect a semi or final.
Only if you're Florida State
Posted on 10/23/24 at 1:11 pm to dstone12
So who would play in he SEC championship if the following happens?
UGA wins out and finishes 7-1.
TAM beats LSU but loses to Texas and finishes 7-1.
Texas wins out and finishes 7-1.
LSU loses to TAM and finishes 7-1.
Or what if?
UGA wins out and finishes 7-1.
LSU beats TAM but loses to Alabama and finishes 7-1.
TAM beats Texas and finishes 7-1.
There are also several scenarios where there could be only one team with 1 SEC loss, but up to 5 tied with 2 losses.
UGA wins out and finishes 7-1.
TAM beats LSU but loses to Texas and finishes 7-1.
Texas wins out and finishes 7-1.
LSU loses to TAM and finishes 7-1.
Or what if?
UGA wins out and finishes 7-1.
LSU beats TAM but loses to Alabama and finishes 7-1.
TAM beats Texas and finishes 7-1.
There are also several scenarios where there could be only one team with 1 SEC loss, but up to 5 tied with 2 losses.
Posted on 10/23/24 at 1:12 pm to captdalton
Posted on 10/23/24 at 1:14 pm to lsu777
I could live with that. An extra week to get healthy
Posted on 10/23/24 at 1:23 pm to lsu777
quote:Thanks for working that to find a scenario where there would be a log jam. I'm not trying to play internet contrarian for the sake of finding someone to argue with.
lsu777
I think all 4 teams you have sitting at 7-1 in conference play have the potential to drop a 2nd SEC game. A&M has Texas and LSU and road games at CoSC and Auburn, which are not gimmes.
Texas plays rivalry games @ A&M and @ Arkansas. Vandy isn't a automatic win especially after an emotional loss the week before, Florida is going to ruin someone's season, and Kentucky's D is real.
Georgia has to go to Oxford, the WLOCP, and play Tennessee.
You could argue LSU has the easiest path to a 7-1 SEC record with the games that remain, and that still entails 5 SEC games: @ A&M, @ Florida, Alabama, Vandy. The fact that Oklahoma is probably the easiest game left on their schedule speaks to the bloodbath the SEC is this year. If they survive that with only 1 SEC loss, lose in the SECCG, they still have the Southern Cal loss so I doubt they'll be the #5 Seed with 3 losses.
We have no idea how the CFP committee is going to look at CCG losses or if they penalize teams for tanking to avoid playing in their CCG.
There is still a lot of football left to be played, but if that scenario you posted comes to fruition, I'll be upgrading to the SECRant Platinum Membership for the shitshow this board will be between Dec. 1 and Dec. 31st.
I've said this a few times: State, Auburn, Florida, and Carolina are going ruin someone's season. Florida may have already had their moment by beating UK, but they are talented enough to overcome any coaching shortcomings.
Posted on 10/23/24 at 1:28 pm to Murph4HOF
quote:
Thanks for working that to find a scenario where there would be a log jam. I'm not trying to play internet contrarian for the sake of finding someone to argue with.
I think all 4 teams you have sitting at 7-1 in conference play have the potential to drop a 2nd SEC game. A&M has Texas and LSU and road games at CoSC and Auburn, which are not gimmes.
Texas plays rivalry games @ A&M and @ Arkansas. Vandy isn't a automatic win especially after an emotional loss the week before, Florida is going to ruin someone's season, and Kentucky's D is real.
Georgia has to go to Oxford, the WLOCP, and play Tennessee.
You could argue LSU has the easiest path to a 7-1 SEC record with the games that remain, and that still entails 5 SEC games: @ A&M, @ Florida, Alabama, Vandy. The fact that Oklahoma is probably the easiest game left on their schedule speaks to the bloodbath the SEC is this year. If they survive that with only 1 SEC loss, lose in the SECCG, they still have the Southern Cal loss so I doubt they'll be the #5 Seed with 3 losses.
We have no idea how the CFP committee is going to look at CCG losses or if they penalize teams for tanking to avoid playing in their CCG.
There is still a lot of football left to be played, but if that scenario you posted comes to fruition, I'll be upgrading to the SECRant Platinum Membership for the shitshow this board will be between Dec. 1 and Dec. 31st.
I've said this a few times: State, Auburn, Florida, and Carolina are going ruin someone's season. Florida may have already had their moment by beating UK, but they are talented enough to overcome any coaching shortcomings.
no agree 100%...just showing that there are very very real possibilities that something like that could happen and it is prolly 25% chance or better in happening
Posted on 10/23/24 at 1:28 pm to captdalton
quote:bullshite.
If the loser of the SEC championship has two loses entering the game and leaves with a third, they most likely won’t have to worry about playing in a first round playoff game.
I think LSU would be the most likely team for that case. Their losses would be Week 1 vs. Southern Cal, the SECCG, and let's just say @A&M. Their resume is still solid enough for a top 11 ranking.
For the CFP, the flies in the ointment are all in the state of Indiana between the way ND gets preferential treatment and IU having an amazing season.
This post was edited on 10/23/24 at 1:31 pm
Posted on 10/23/24 at 1:34 pm to lsu777
quote:
UGA wins out
UT wins out
That isn't possible. We play UT on November 16th.
Posted on 10/23/24 at 1:37 pm to David Fellows
quote:He was talking about UTx/tu/Texas
That isn't possible. We play UT on November 16th.
Posted on 10/23/24 at 1:37 pm to paperwasp
quote:
Unless there is tremendous fortune involved, I just don't see how the same team that started the season will still be standing at the end. Which means teams with depth and coaching staffs with the best plans in place to utilize it correctly should have an advantage.
Interestingly, Kalen DeBoer led 3 NAIA national championship teams at Sioux Falls that each played 4 postseason games. I wonder if those experiences are going to help at all, or if simply avoiding significant injuries and overall conditioning will be more of a deciding factor for most programs?
Why are we talking Alabama and playoffs/SECCG? They're cooked.
This post was edited on 10/23/24 at 1:42 pm
Posted on 10/23/24 at 1:40 pm to David Fellows
quote:
That isn't possible. We play UT on November 16th.
meant texas
Posted on 10/23/24 at 1:48 pm to Murph4HOF
quote:
bullshite.
I think LSU would be the most likely team for that case. Their losses would be Week 1 vs. Southern Cal, the SECCG, and let's just say @A&M. Their resume is still solid enough for a top 11 ranking.
In the past 5 years, not one single SEC team with three losses was ranked inside the top twelve of the week 15 (post championship game) CFP rankings.
They are going to include the conference champs from each P4 conference and the highest ranked G5 team. That leaves 7 at large slots. They can say they are going to select the best seven teams, but they will definitely be looking at it by conference. I think the max number of SEC teams will be 4, conference champ and 3 at large. I can not see them giving the SEC over 50% of the at large slots. The other conferences would scream bloody murder.
There is a pretty good chance there will be 4 SEC teams with 2 or fewer losses. A three loss SEC team, despite playing in the conference championship, likely gets left at home. That is easier for the committee to explain than leaving a 2 loss SEC team that was tied with them but for a tie-breaker at home.
Posted on 10/23/24 at 1:52 pm to lsu777
quote:
best case for LSU would be the 5 seed, host Boise
There was a B1G scheduling thread the other day where we were talking about Boise, and I mentioned that back in Week 2 they played Oregon, and Ashton Jeanty had 192 yards on 25 carries (7.7 YPC).
Oregon won on a walk-off FG after trailing for a good portion of the night.
Obviously everything in this thread is hypothetical, but just for the sake of discussion, not sure I would want to play Boise State right now, and IMO (as of today) there's also a decent chance Jeanty wins the Heisman.
Posted on 10/23/24 at 1:57 pm to dstone12
The problem with the calculator is for it to be completely accurate when it comes to tie breaker, the user has to correctly predict the winner of every remaining SEC game. It is fun and it shows at least which teams are in the discussion.
Posted on 10/23/24 at 2:06 pm to Hogfan13
quote:
Why are we talking Alabama and playoffs/SECCG? They're cooked.
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