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SEC Basketball Tiers
Posted on 1/29/20 at 12:26 pm
Posted on 1/29/20 at 12:26 pm
In my opinion, there are 3 tiers:
TIER 1: Teams that are still in contention for the NCAA Tournament:
LSU, Kentucky, Auburn, Arkansas, Miss St., Florida, Alabama & Tennessee
TIER 2: Teams that have no at-large bid shot but are not as bad as Vanderbilt:
S. Carolina, Texas A&M, Georgia, Missouri, Ole Miss
TIER 3: Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt
Obviously there are going to be upsets, but if Tier 1 teams win all remaining games against opponents below them.... Tier 2 teams all beat Vanderbilt.... and Vandy loses every game....... Also, assume teams win all home games and lose all road games to opponents within their same tier, this is how the final standings would look:
1. LSU: 14-4
2. Kentucky, Auburn, Alabama, Mississippi State, & Florida: 13-5
7. Arkansas: 12-6
8. Tennessee: 10-8
9. S. Carolina: 7-11
10. Texas A&M: 6-12
11. Georgia, Missouri, Ole Miss: 4-14
14. Vanderbilt: 0-18
It might be a bit of a stretch to consider Tennessee in that top group, but we'll go with it for now. In the above scenario, seven SEC teams easily make the NCAA Tournament... likely all in the 4-10 seed range. Tennessee would be a long-shot bubble team that would likely need to get to the SEC Tournament Title Game to have a shot.
I have no idea how a 5-way tie at second place would shake out for SEC Tournament seeding, but it would be interesting to know.
Regardless, it obviously won't go to plan this way, but I wouldn't be too surprised to see the final standings look something like the above.
TIER 1: Teams that are still in contention for the NCAA Tournament:
LSU, Kentucky, Auburn, Arkansas, Miss St., Florida, Alabama & Tennessee
TIER 2: Teams that have no at-large bid shot but are not as bad as Vanderbilt:
S. Carolina, Texas A&M, Georgia, Missouri, Ole Miss
TIER 3: Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt
Obviously there are going to be upsets, but if Tier 1 teams win all remaining games against opponents below them.... Tier 2 teams all beat Vanderbilt.... and Vandy loses every game....... Also, assume teams win all home games and lose all road games to opponents within their same tier, this is how the final standings would look:
1. LSU: 14-4
2. Kentucky, Auburn, Alabama, Mississippi State, & Florida: 13-5
7. Arkansas: 12-6
8. Tennessee: 10-8
9. S. Carolina: 7-11
10. Texas A&M: 6-12
11. Georgia, Missouri, Ole Miss: 4-14
14. Vanderbilt: 0-18
It might be a bit of a stretch to consider Tennessee in that top group, but we'll go with it for now. In the above scenario, seven SEC teams easily make the NCAA Tournament... likely all in the 4-10 seed range. Tennessee would be a long-shot bubble team that would likely need to get to the SEC Tournament Title Game to have a shot.
I have no idea how a 5-way tie at second place would shake out for SEC Tournament seeding, but it would be interesting to know.
Regardless, it obviously won't go to plan this way, but I wouldn't be too surprised to see the final standings look something like the above.
This post was edited on 1/29/20 at 12:28 pm
16
Posted on 1/29/20 at 12:29 pm to BHMKyle
5 teams at 13-5 would be hilarious
Posted on 1/29/20 at 12:30 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
1. LSU: 14-4
2. Kentucky, Auburn, Alabama, Mississippi State, & Florida: 13-5
7. Arkansas: 12-6
8. Tennessee: 10-8
9. S. Carolina: 7-11
10. Texas A&M: 6-12
11. Georgia, Missouri, Ole Miss: 4-14
14. Vanderbilt: 0-18
That is more or less how KenPom has it, except with the logjam at 11-7 with Auburn sneaking out of it by 1 game
1. LSU (14-4)
2. Kentucky (13-5)
3. Auburn (12-6)
4. Alabama (11-7)
4. Arkansas (11-7)
4. Florida (11-7)
4. Mississippi St (11-7)
8. Tennessee (9-9)
9. South Carolina (8-10)
10. Missouri (7-11)
10. Texas A&M (7-11)
12. Georgia (6-12)
13. Ole Miss (5-13)
14. Vanderbilt (2-16)
This post was edited on 1/29/20 at 12:31 pm
Posted on 1/29/20 at 12:30 pm to BHMKyle
After last night do you think the Vols are teetering on dropping to Tier 2?
And Ole Miss sharing space in Tier 3?
And Ole Miss sharing space in Tier 3?
Posted on 1/29/20 at 12:31 pm to BHMKyle
LSU is 15-4
Posted on 1/29/20 at 12:31 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
TIER 1
quote:
LSU
If you had said this 3 years ago I would have suggested a public hanging.
Posted on 1/29/20 at 12:32 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
14. Vanderbilt (2-16)
Who does KenPom have Vandy beating? I have a hard time seeing them win a game this year.
It would be interesting to take KenPom, but then add back in a win for the two teams he has losing to Vandy.
Posted on 1/29/20 at 12:33 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
Who does KenPom have Vandy beating? I have a hard time seeing them win a game this year.
It would be interesting to take KenPom, but then add back in a win for the two teams he has losing to Vandy.
Nobody straight up - the best odds are
(1) vs Missouri (40%)
(2) vs Georgia (39%)
(3) vs South Carolina (38%)
If I had to give a Vandy guess I'd go with 1-15. I think they get one of those 3 games.
Posted on 1/29/20 at 12:34 pm to NFLSU
quote:
LSU is 15-4
Bro
Posted on 1/29/20 at 12:34 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
Auburn
quote:Certainly possible, but pretty optimistic. Auburn could be betting dogs in their next 4 games. Even if they aren't, it wouldn't surprise me if they lost all 4 or went 1-3. UK, LSU, Arky and Bama. Luckily only one is on the road. AU also has a return trip to Rupp on the schedule.
13-5
This post was edited on 1/29/20 at 12:35 pm
Posted on 1/29/20 at 12:34 pm to agswin
quote:
After last night do you think the Vols are teetering on dropping to Tier 2?
Yeah, I think they are right on that line between the two tiers.
quote:
And Ole Miss sharing space in Tier 3?
No. Ole Miss is not terrible. Their record is bad, but they really aren't a bad team.
They somehow beat Penn State and played within single digits of Butler. They took Auburn to 2OT. They only lost to Arkansas and LSU by 4 points each.... and of course they beat Georgia (which doesn't prove much).
They are way ahead of Vandy right now.
Posted on 1/29/20 at 12:35 pm to PearlJam
quote:
Auburn could be betting dogs in their next 4 games
0% chance you are the betting dogs at home against Alabama
If you are, I'm betting my house on you
Posted on 1/29/20 at 12:36 pm to BHMKyle
After last night I only have basketball tears and likely won't be watching the Dawgs again this year.
Posted on 1/29/20 at 12:36 pm to agswin
VOLS have 2 vs Kentucky, Auburn, and Arkansas left, plus State and Bama.
0 chance we win more than 2 games the rest of the season
0 chance we win more than 2 games the rest of the season
Posted on 1/29/20 at 12:37 pm to sand mountainDvalues
quote:
VOLS have 2 vs Kentucky, Auburn, and Arkansas left, plus State and Bama.
I watched the last 10 minutes of that game last night. Holy mother of pearl that was bad.
Posted on 1/29/20 at 12:37 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:If we lose to UK at home, LSU at home and at Arky, then we definitely will be betting dogs to a team that has already blown us out.
0% chance you are the betting dogs at home against Alabama
Posted on 1/29/20 at 12:38 pm to TigerLunatik
Must be where he keeps his wallet.
nb4: KentuckyFanSaysWhat
Posted on 1/29/20 at 12:40 pm to PearlJam
quote:
If we lose to UK at home, LSU at home and at Arky, then we definitely will be betting dogs to a team that has already blown us out.
Posted on 1/29/20 at 12:41 pm to agswin
If you take Tennessee out of Tier 1 and move them to Tier 2, then they fall from a projected 10-8 in SEC play down to just 5-13.... which seems way too low.
Tennessee's schedule is brutal. Their final 11 games are these:
at Miss St.
at Alabama
Kentucky
Arkansas
at S. Carolina
Vanderbilt
at Auburn
at Arkansas
Florida
at Kentucky
Auburn
I honestly don't see them getting to 10-8 against that schedule though I think they'll be better than 5-13.... probably somewhere in between which is why they don't really fit in a tier.
Tennessee's schedule is brutal. Their final 11 games are these:
at Miss St.
at Alabama
Kentucky
Arkansas
at S. Carolina
Vanderbilt
at Auburn
at Arkansas
Florida
at Kentucky
Auburn
I honestly don't see them getting to 10-8 against that schedule though I think they'll be better than 5-13.... probably somewhere in between which is why they don't really fit in a tier.
Posted on 1/29/20 at 12:42 pm to BHMKyle
Is Georgia really that bad?
Tennessee can't score. I will be shocked if we make the big dance.
Tennessee can't score. I will be shocked if we make the big dance.
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