re: Saban on his soapbox again...

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Total no. of overtime games (1974–2003) 365
Both teams had at least one possession 261 (72%)
Team won toss and won game 189 (52%)
Team lost toss and won game 160 (44%)
Team won toss and drove for winning score 102 (28%)
Games ending in a tie 15 (5%)

Overtime games in 2002 - 26
Both teams had at least one possession 15 (58%)
Team won toss and won game 16 (62%)
Team lost toss and won game 9 (35%)
Team won toss and drove for winning score 10 (38%)
Games ending in a tie 1 (3%)

Overtime games in 2003 - 23
Both teams had at least one possession 16 (70%)
Team won toss and won game 12 (52%)
Team lost toss and won game 11 (48%)
Team won toss and drove for winning score 6 (26%)
Games ending in a tie 0 (0 %)

The data appear to support the notion that the football team scoring first in sudden-death overtime is usually the one that had won the coin toss and received the ball.

Interestingly, the cumulative data hide the effect of a rule change that occurred in 1994, when kickoffs were moved back 5 yards to the 30-yard line. Since 1994, nearly one-third of overtime games have been won on the first possession by the team that received the ball first. In the first 20 seasons, under the old rule, slightly more than one-quarter of the games were won in this fashion. LINK

A recent analysis by economist Richard E. Hawkins of Pennsylvania State University in DuBois confirms that these differences are statistically significant.

"The analysis finds with 99.99 % certainty that the [coin] flip has made a difference in the outcome of the game over the last 10 years," he concludes. "But for the period prior to those 10 years, the coin flip cannot be shown to be important."

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In sum it appears the coin flip really wasnt a big deal in determining the winner until the NFL moved kickoffs back 5 yards to the 30.

But even still if less than 33% of games are won on the opening drive of OT(since 1994) how unfair is the coin flip rule? 67% of OT games have at least 2 possessions.

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The NFL guys hate their system for OT and hate the coins toss deciding the out come.

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Thats not really true, coaches and owners have meet every year to discuss rule changes and they've never changed the rule until 2010 and even then only for playoff games. NFL coaches appear to like the NFL rule.

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it would be interesting to see how many college OTs are decided by the coin toss as well.

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How exactly would you determine that a college overtime (given its format) is "decided by the coin toss"?

Seems impossible really.

ETA, I guess I see what you're saying though. Is there any correlation between winning the OT coin toss and winning the game in OT? I would bet there's none.

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to complain about not having NFL-style overtime

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So he really would've preferred that the punting game could have impacted OT. Interesting.

Is is significant that in college OT teams often defer starting on offense in OT, whereas, that doesn't happen in the NFL for obvious reasons?

"But if you kick off to them and they get it to the 30 and you can't stop them until they get in field-goal range, you ought to lose," Saban said.

If you get the ball at the 25 and can't get any points...you ought to lose as well.

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this site says that in CFB the winner of the flip wins 52% of the time.

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I wonder how that compares to the correlation of winning the coin toss at the start of the game and winning the game.

he's such a little sourpuss..had bama won he would have said how much greater college overtime is compared to the pros..fricking toolbag

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fact: The team that wins the coin toss at the beginning of the game wins 51% of the time.

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Is that enough to be regarded as statistically significant? It doesn't seem to me that it is, but i will defer to those who are more knowledgable on statistics.

That brings up a related question-
Is there any statistical correlation in the decision to defer receiving the kickoff until the second half?

Was anyone surprised that Saban didn't defer Saturday?

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If you get the ball at the 25 and can't get any points...you ought to lose as well.

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This

LSU made bama go BACKWARDS with a big sack

THEN their kicker was forced into a long fg

Saban is a whiny little bitch and I hope bama loses to every other team on their schedule.