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NCAA Tournament Projection- 5/19
Posted on 5/19/26 at 9:53 am
Posted on 5/19/26 at 9:53 am
Heading into the Tournament, here’s how I see it as of this morning:
1. UCLA hosting 32. UCSB
2. Georgia Tech hosting 31. Liberty
3. Texas hosting 30. UCF
4. Georgia hosting 29. Miami
5. N. Carolina hosting 28. Oklahoma
6. Alabama hosting 27. Jacksonville St.
7. Auburn hosting 26. Oklahoma St.
8. Florida St. hosting 25. Arkansas
9. Florida hosting 24. Virginia
10. Texas A&M 23. Cincinnati
11. Miss St. hosting 22. Coastal Carolina
12. Southern Miss hosting 21. Tennessee
13. Nebraska hosting 20. Kansas
14. Oregon hosting 19. Ole Miss
15. W. Virginia hosting 18. Wake Forest
16. Oregon St. hosting 17. USC
*I’ve got Kentucky as a 3-seed but solidly in the field. I’d slot them into the Morgantown, WV regional.
I think GA Tech gets the overall #1 seed if they win the ACC Tournament or if UCLA loses the Big 10 Tournamant.
I think the SEC teams are mostly locked in place. Seeding could be up or down a few slots but for the most part the National Seeds are locked, the hosts are locked, and the 2-seeds are locked…. With 2 exceptions:
I think Florida or Texas A&M could move up to claim the final National Seed spot if they make a deep run in the SEC Tourney and/or if FSU underperforms in the ACC Tourney.
I think Kentucky could still claim a 2-seed with two or more wins in Hoover.
The four SEC National seeds are IMO all locks but their order could very much change based upon Hoover results.
1. UCLA hosting 32. UCSB
2. Georgia Tech hosting 31. Liberty
3. Texas hosting 30. UCF
4. Georgia hosting 29. Miami
5. N. Carolina hosting 28. Oklahoma
6. Alabama hosting 27. Jacksonville St.
7. Auburn hosting 26. Oklahoma St.
8. Florida St. hosting 25. Arkansas
9. Florida hosting 24. Virginia
10. Texas A&M 23. Cincinnati
11. Miss St. hosting 22. Coastal Carolina
12. Southern Miss hosting 21. Tennessee
13. Nebraska hosting 20. Kansas
14. Oregon hosting 19. Ole Miss
15. W. Virginia hosting 18. Wake Forest
16. Oregon St. hosting 17. USC
*I’ve got Kentucky as a 3-seed but solidly in the field. I’d slot them into the Morgantown, WV regional.
I think GA Tech gets the overall #1 seed if they win the ACC Tournament or if UCLA loses the Big 10 Tournamant.
I think the SEC teams are mostly locked in place. Seeding could be up or down a few slots but for the most part the National Seeds are locked, the hosts are locked, and the 2-seeds are locked…. With 2 exceptions:
I think Florida or Texas A&M could move up to claim the final National Seed spot if they make a deep run in the SEC Tourney and/or if FSU underperforms in the ACC Tourney.
I think Kentucky could still claim a 2-seed with two or more wins in Hoover.
The four SEC National seeds are IMO all locks but their order could very much change based upon Hoover results.
This post was edited on 5/19/26 at 9:56 am
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Posted on 5/19/26 at 10:01 am to AUTiger789
quote:
8. Florida St.
9. Florida
That is fine by me. I think this team needs a good kick in the nuts to play well, so maybe this is just what the doctor ordered. FSU can bring their little pep band and all their other ghey bullshite.
I am just worried about getting out of our regional. We play down to our competition too often.
Posted on 5/19/26 at 10:06 am to bigDgator
Florida deserves to be ahead but I just think the committee is going to try their hardest to avoid 5 SEC National Seeds.
This post was edited on 5/19/26 at 10:08 am
Posted on 5/19/26 at 10:48 am to AUTiger789
The #8 National Seed spot is up for grabs and these are the potential candidates:
RPI:
#7 Florida State
#9 Florida
#10 Texas A&M
#13 Southern Miss
DSR:
#7 Texas A&M
#8 Florida St.
#10 Florida
#20 Southern Miss
KPI:
#6 Florida
#9 Florida St.
#10 Texas A&M
#14 Southern Miss
SOS
#2 Florida
#5 Florida State
#18 Texas A&M
#28 Southern Miss
Quad 1 Wins:
15- Florid
10- Texas A&M
7- Florida St
7- Southern Miss
Quad 1+2 Wins:
23- Southern Miss
21- Florida
19- Texas A&M
16- Florida State
Head-to-Head
*Florida 3-0 over Florida St (3 individual mid-week games)
*Texas A&M 2-1 over Florida in Gainesville
IMO other than USM all three of the other teams have a legit argument for that #8 spot.
RPI:
#7 Florida State
#9 Florida
#10 Texas A&M
#13 Southern Miss
DSR:
#7 Texas A&M
#8 Florida St.
#10 Florida
#20 Southern Miss
KPI:
#6 Florida
#9 Florida St.
#10 Texas A&M
#14 Southern Miss
SOS
#2 Florida
#5 Florida State
#18 Texas A&M
#28 Southern Miss
Quad 1 Wins:
15- Florid
10- Texas A&M
7- Florida St
7- Southern Miss
Quad 1+2 Wins:
23- Southern Miss
21- Florida
19- Texas A&M
16- Florida State
Head-to-Head
*Florida 3-0 over Florida St (3 individual mid-week games)
*Texas A&M 2-1 over Florida in Gainesville
IMO other than USM all three of the other teams have a legit argument for that #8 spot.
Posted on 5/19/26 at 10:57 am to AUTiger789
Think Georgia is ahead of us
Pretty much every projection has Texas as current 5 seed
Pretty much every projection has Texas as current 5 seed
Posted on 5/19/26 at 11:13 am to AUTiger789
Looks like A&M still needs to prove it for a top 8 National seed. A&M could benefit from a quality win vs a top 8 host like Auburn in the SEC Tournament, or an otherwise deep run. Otherwise, have to see how the chips fall.
How teams use their pitching this week will be interesting….
How teams use their pitching this week will be interesting….
Posted on 5/19/26 at 11:35 am to AUTiger789
committee will have to spin to explain FSU ahead of UF or A&M. FSU did a good job of gaming the RPI, they have no top tier wins.
Posted on 5/20/26 at 12:17 pm to All Gas No Brakes
quote:
Think Georgia is ahead of us
It’s very possible. The lack of a head-to-head series to decide it makes it 50/50 IMO. I feel like the committee will try to reward Georgia for their 23-7 SEC record (relative to their #14 RPI), but I also wouldn’t be surprised for them to show a subtle message that a #242 Non-Conference SOS isn’t something that should be swept under the rug.
Putting Texas at #3 and Georgia at #4 would help them accomplish both those things.
Posted on 5/20/26 at 12:27 pm to AUTiger789
texas ahead of georgia is a travesty. I know it's only 1 spot but GA has been the better team this season.
Posted on 5/20/26 at 12:43 pm to AUTiger789
We have been in a free fall. A 2 spot would be generous right now
Posted on 5/20/26 at 2:29 pm to AUTiger789
Been seeing A&M projected a lot at 8 from publications but I think they need one win
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