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re: My Predictions - National Seeds + Regional Hosts
Posted on 5/26/25 at 7:39 am to FredbullTN
Posted on 5/26/25 at 7:39 am to FredbullTN
quote:
The problem with this is it works the same way when you compare LSU to Arkansas. Arkansas is 1 game better against common opponents but LSU won the series and when you factor that in they are both (14-11)
When you take it even further and compare LSU and Vandy common opponents then LSU is actually 2 games better than Vandy and they both finished with the same SEC record.
On another note, you keep bringing up A&M but you never mention the fact they have the same amount of series victories against host teams as Auburn and they actually have more than Vandy, Georgia, and LSU. For reference, Tennessee (a host team) doesn’t have 1 single series victory against a host team.
RPI is a flawed metric but right now it works for Auburn for the argument you are trying to make. If you don’t think It’s a flawed metric then go look at Coastal and Oregon States best series victories and compare them to any of these top 6 in the SEC. It rewards losses to good teams and punishes victories over bad ones.
The problem is, all of these guys are hung up on comparing solely against LSU for some reason when multiple people have told them they need to be looking elsewhere for a fight. They want to be able to look at all of it in a vacuum and that’s just not the case.
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Posted on 5/26/25 at 8:37 am to BigBro
I’m interested in seeing how they seed Oregon, Oregon State, and UCLA.
Oregon State is the one I’m most interested in. While their Q1 record looks good, when you dive deeper they only played 9 RPI top 25 games this year and went 3-6 in those games. They also lost to #26 Oklahoma. The rest of their Q1 games are against Cal Ploy, Xavier, Nebraska, and Hawaii.
Oregon State is the one I’m most interested in. While their Q1 record looks good, when you dive deeper they only played 9 RPI top 25 games this year and went 3-6 in those games. They also lost to #26 Oklahoma. The rest of their Q1 games are against Cal Ploy, Xavier, Nebraska, and Hawaii.
Posted on 5/26/25 at 9:10 am to Hawgeye
quote:
Oregon State is the one I’m most interested in. While their Q1 record looks good, when you dive deeper they only played 9 RPI top 25 games this year and went 3-6 in those games. They also lost to #26 Oklahoma. The rest of their Q1 games are against Cal Ploy, Xavier, Nebraska, and Hawaii.
If anyone deserves a break, its these guys.. they didn’t deserve what they got with the PAC 12 breakup.. I’m sure they had to just throw a schedule together.
Just my opinion..
My final guess.
1. Vanderbilt
16. USM
2. Texas
15. UCLA
3. Georgia
14. FSU
4. Arkansas
13. Oregon
5. UNC
12. Ole Miss
6. Oregon State
11. Tennessee
7. LSU
10. Clemson
8. Auburn
9. Coastal Carolina
Posted on 5/26/25 at 9:35 am to BigBro
quote:
If anyone deserves a break, its these guys.. they didn’t deserve what they got with the PAC 12 breakup.. I’m sure they had to just throw a schedule together.
Just my opinion..
My final guess.
1. Vanderbilt
16. USM
2. Texas
15. UCLA
3. Georgia
14. FSU
4. Arkansas
13. Oregon
5. UNC
12. Ole Miss
6. Oregon State
11. Tennessee
7. LSU
10. Clemson
8. Auburn
9. Coastal Carolina
That's how it should look but the committee always has a few "wtf" picks. Vandy should be #1 for sure. No one is playing better than they are right now and their rpi speaks for itself.
This post was edited on 5/26/25 at 9:36 am
Posted on 5/26/25 at 10:34 am to HorninHouston
Posted on 5/26/25 at 10:59 am to BigBro
Stupid. No lsu
Posted on 5/26/25 at 11:41 am to BigBro
quote:
8. Auburn 9. Coastal Carolina
Got the matchup right lol.
Of course with UF in that regional I expect to face the Gators in the supers.
Posted on 5/26/25 at 12:46 pm to LSUtigerNVegas
quote:
Sure buddy! I’m bookmarking this post and will come back to it later today. Baseball is a completely different sport. You’ll find out soon enough. Those 19 SEC wins vs y’all’s 17 will play a BIG factor. As well as us having a better overall record. We also check all the committees boxes as far as stadium capacity, average attendance, and just plain eyeballs on our games. That’s the category y’all can’t even begin to compete with us in. After all, the NCAA likes making money.
Soooooo. We coming back to this or no?
Posted on 5/26/25 at 12:52 pm to im4LSU
quote:
Again with your lack of reading comprehension. You said it’s the most heavily weighed metric. I said “it’s not”, meaning it’s not the most heavily weighted and then I explained how it’s valued differently across the country. Jesus, you are dense.
If the outcome doesn’t make it clear how much they weight the RPI to you, then I’m afraid explaining it to you is beyond my ability.
Truth be told RPI is basically the bedrock, the place they start from, then they build upon that bedrock, first considering stuff like SOR, raw wins and then travel limitations to get to the end result.
Posted on 5/26/25 at 4:37 pm to im4LSU
quote:
Is exactly what I said last week to these guys, for the exact reasons you pointed out. They just can’t get past “RPI”. And for good reason. It’s a strong metric that supports their case. It’s just not the only thing that goes into this like they want to believe.
You tried to tell us, but we just wouldn’t listen. Shame on us for not heeding the advice of the all knowing im4LSU. We’re just a bunch of Auburn fans new to the sport. What do we know?
Posted on 5/26/25 at 4:38 pm to Bigbens42
quote:
Soooooo. We coming back to this or no?
They were all for the bookmarking and revisiting 24 hours ago. Now they do not like the bookmarking and revisiting. Something must have happened.
Posted on 5/26/25 at 4:40 pm to Bigbens42
quote:
Truth be told RPI is basically the bedrock, the place they start from, then they build upon that bedrock, first considering stuff like SOR, raw wins and then travel limitations to get to the end result.
Exactly this.
And the human polls are garbage as we knew they would be.
Posted on 5/26/25 at 8:29 pm to Bigbens42
(The silence from resident dumbass im4lsu is deafening)
Posted on 5/26/25 at 8:46 pm to Bigbens42
He is off somewhere misquoting himself.
Posted on 5/26/25 at 8:47 pm to MrAUTigers
quote:
He is off somewhere misquoting himself.
“See, you’re a dumbass, but for reasons completely beyond my understanding or experience”
This post was edited on 5/26/25 at 8:47 pm
Posted on 5/26/25 at 9:02 pm to BigBro
quote:
16th in the ELO was the dealbreaker for me..
But I’m not an expert, so maybe I’m wrong..
You were. I told you they do not consider “power rankings” like ELO.
Here’s my advice; drop ELO, replace it with KPI (I know it’s niche but the committee handles it with more gravitas) and assign a lot more weight to RPI.
You’re a damned good poster that clearly puts a lot of effort into being so. As such you’re very much an asset. Far better and far more rigorous than the usual drivel we get here. You had some parameters wrong. Nothing wrong with that. I appreciate you.
Posted on 5/26/25 at 9:12 pm to Bigbens42
I still don't understand why anybody would put stock in an "indicator" on IF two teams play, this team will win? Use metrics/analytics on the actual outcome of games.
There are games I could cherry pick that ELO would pick a winner 100 out of 100 times.........and ELO would have been dead wrong.
There are games I could cherry pick that ELO would pick a winner 100 out of 100 times.........and ELO would have been dead wrong.
Posted on 5/26/25 at 9:14 pm to MrAUTigers
quote:
I still don't understand why anybody would put stock in an "indicator" on IF two teams play, this team will win? Use metrics/analytics on the actual outcome of games. There are games I could cherry pick that ELO would pick a winner 100 out of 100 times.........and ELO would have been dead wrong.
The “KenPom” trap is seductive and easy to fall into
This post was edited on 5/26/25 at 9:15 pm
Posted on 5/28/25 at 7:15 am to AUTiger789
We both got a national seed. If one of us were getting left out it was going to be y’all.
Posted on 5/28/25 at 8:08 am to LSUtigerNVegas
quote:
We both got a national seed. If one of us were getting left out it was going to be y’all.
I mean...Auburn got a top 4 seed...how can you really post that with a straight face...like literally, they were not close to being left out and were ahead of LSU in the eyes of the selectors.
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