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Model Predictions - SEC Games week of 12/12 (BAMA/ARK, A&M/OM, LSU/UF, UGA/MIZ, MSU/AUB)
Posted on 12/7/20 at 10:07 am
Posted on 12/7/20 at 10:07 am
ARKANSAS vs #1 ALABAMA (-31) (O/U 68.5)
VEGAS PREDICTION
Alabama - 50
Arkansas - 19
MODEL PREDICTION
ALABAMA - 53*
ARKANSAS - 17
Alabama Total Yards (YPP): 540 (7.20 on 75 plays)
Alabama Pass Yards (YPA): 300 (9.37 on 32 plays)
Alabama Rush Yards (YPA): 240 (5.58 on 43 plays)
Arkansas Total Yards (YPP): 356 (5.39 on 66 plays)
Arkansas Pass Yards (YPA): 221 (7.36 on 30 plays)
Arkansas Rush Yards (YPA): 123 (3.41 on 36 plays)
#5 TEXAS A&M (-15) vs OLE MISS (O/U 73)
VEGAS PREDICTION
Texas A&M- 44
Ole Miss - 29
MODEL PREDICTION
TEXAS A&M - 43
OLE MISS- 32
Texas A&M Total Yards (YPP): 545 yards (7.68 YPA on 71 plays)
Texas A&M Pass Yards (YPA): 198 yards (7.54 YPA on 25 plays)
Texas A&M Rush Yards (YPA): 347 yards (7.93 YPA on 46 plays)
Ole Miss Total Yards (YPP): 474 yards (6.68 YPA on 71 plays)
Ole Miss Pass Yards (YPA): 336 yards (10.18 YPA on 33 plays)
Ole Miss Rush Yards (YPA): 138 yards (3.64 YPA on 38 plays)
#6 FLORIDA (-24) vs LSU (O/U 68)
VEGAS PREDICTION
Florida - 46
LSU - 22
MODEL PREDICTION
FLORIDA - 58
LSU - 22**
Florida Total Yards (YPP): 673 yards (9.76 YPA on 69 plays)
Florida Pass Yards (YPA): 555 yards (13.21 YPA on 42 plays)
Florida Rush Yards (YPA): 118 yards (4.38 YPA on 27 plays)
LSU Total Yards (YPP): 350 yards (5.00 YPA on 70 plays)
LSU Pass Yards (YPA): 264 yards (6.60 YPA on 40 plays)
LSU Rush Yards (YPA): 86 yards (2.86 YPA on 30 plays)
MISSOURI vs #8 GEORGIA (-13) (O/U 54)
VEGAS PREDICTION
Georgia - 34
Missouri - 21
MODEL PREDICTION
GEORGIA - 37***
MISSOURI - 18
Georgia Total Yards (YPP): 428 yards (6.69 YPA on 69 plays)
Georgia Pass Yards (YPA): 253 yards (9.37 YPA on 27 plays)
Georgia Rush Yards (YPA): 175 yards (4.74 YPA on 37 plays)
Missouri Total Yards (YPP): 365 yards (5.07 YPA on 70 plays)
Missouri Pass Yards (YPA): 299 yards (7.13 YPA on 42 plays)
Missouri Rush Yards (YPA): 66 yards (2.19 YPA on 30 plays)
MISSISSIPPI STATE vs AUBURN (-8) (O/U 48.0)
VEGAS PREDICTION
Auburn - 28
Mississippi St- 20
MODEL PREDICTION
MISSISSIPPI ST - 27
AUBURN - 24
Miss St Total Yards (YPP): 343 yards (4.83 YPA on 71 plays)
Miss St Pass Yards (YPA): 323 yards (5.66 YPA on 57 plays)
Miss St Rush Yards (YPA): 20 yards (1.45 YPA on 14 plays)
Auburn Total Yards (YPP): 352 yards (5.03 YPA on 70 plays)
Auburn Pass Yards (YPA): 221 yards (6.89 YPA on 32 plays)
Auburn Rush Yards (YPA): 131 yards (3.46 YPA on 38 plays)
* Only used Alabama offensive stats post-Waddle injury
** Only used LSU offensive stats post-Brennan injury
*** Only used UGA offensive stats from JT Daniels starts
VEGAS PREDICTION
Alabama - 50
Arkansas - 19
MODEL PREDICTION
ALABAMA - 53*
ARKANSAS - 17
Alabama Total Yards (YPP): 540 (7.20 on 75 plays)
Alabama Pass Yards (YPA): 300 (9.37 on 32 plays)
Alabama Rush Yards (YPA): 240 (5.58 on 43 plays)
Arkansas Total Yards (YPP): 356 (5.39 on 66 plays)
Arkansas Pass Yards (YPA): 221 (7.36 on 30 plays)
Arkansas Rush Yards (YPA): 123 (3.41 on 36 plays)
#5 TEXAS A&M (-15) vs OLE MISS (O/U 73)
VEGAS PREDICTION
Texas A&M- 44
Ole Miss - 29
MODEL PREDICTION
TEXAS A&M - 43
OLE MISS- 32
Texas A&M Total Yards (YPP): 545 yards (7.68 YPA on 71 plays)
Texas A&M Pass Yards (YPA): 198 yards (7.54 YPA on 25 plays)
Texas A&M Rush Yards (YPA): 347 yards (7.93 YPA on 46 plays)
Ole Miss Total Yards (YPP): 474 yards (6.68 YPA on 71 plays)
Ole Miss Pass Yards (YPA): 336 yards (10.18 YPA on 33 plays)
Ole Miss Rush Yards (YPA): 138 yards (3.64 YPA on 38 plays)
#6 FLORIDA (-24) vs LSU (O/U 68)
VEGAS PREDICTION
Florida - 46
LSU - 22
MODEL PREDICTION
FLORIDA - 58
LSU - 22**
Florida Total Yards (YPP): 673 yards (9.76 YPA on 69 plays)
Florida Pass Yards (YPA): 555 yards (13.21 YPA on 42 plays)
Florida Rush Yards (YPA): 118 yards (4.38 YPA on 27 plays)
LSU Total Yards (YPP): 350 yards (5.00 YPA on 70 plays)
LSU Pass Yards (YPA): 264 yards (6.60 YPA on 40 plays)
LSU Rush Yards (YPA): 86 yards (2.86 YPA on 30 plays)
MISSOURI vs #8 GEORGIA (-13) (O/U 54)
VEGAS PREDICTION
Georgia - 34
Missouri - 21
MODEL PREDICTION
GEORGIA - 37***
MISSOURI - 18
Georgia Total Yards (YPP): 428 yards (6.69 YPA on 69 plays)
Georgia Pass Yards (YPA): 253 yards (9.37 YPA on 27 plays)
Georgia Rush Yards (YPA): 175 yards (4.74 YPA on 37 plays)
Missouri Total Yards (YPP): 365 yards (5.07 YPA on 70 plays)
Missouri Pass Yards (YPA): 299 yards (7.13 YPA on 42 plays)
Missouri Rush Yards (YPA): 66 yards (2.19 YPA on 30 plays)
MISSISSIPPI STATE vs AUBURN (-8) (O/U 48.0)
VEGAS PREDICTION
Auburn - 28
Mississippi St- 20
MODEL PREDICTION
MISSISSIPPI ST - 27
AUBURN - 24
Miss St Total Yards (YPP): 343 yards (4.83 YPA on 71 plays)
Miss St Pass Yards (YPA): 323 yards (5.66 YPA on 57 plays)
Miss St Rush Yards (YPA): 20 yards (1.45 YPA on 14 plays)
Auburn Total Yards (YPP): 352 yards (5.03 YPA on 70 plays)
Auburn Pass Yards (YPA): 221 yards (6.89 YPA on 32 plays)
Auburn Rush Yards (YPA): 131 yards (3.46 YPA on 38 plays)
* Only used Alabama offensive stats post-Waddle injury
** Only used LSU offensive stats post-Brennan injury
*** Only used UGA offensive stats from JT Daniels starts
This post was edited on 12/7/20 at 10:26 am
10
Posted on 12/7/20 at 10:08 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Florida Total Yards (YPP): 673 yards (9.76 YPA on 69 plays)
Florida Pass Yards (YPA): 555 yards (13.21 YPA on 42 plays)
Florida Rush Yards (YPA): 118 yards (4.38 YPA on 27 plays)
Holy cow
Posted on 12/7/20 at 10:09 am to boXerrumble
quote:
Holy cow
The difference in Florida scoring 45 and 60 is how much Dan wants to keep throwing. I think he's gonna keep throwing.
Posted on 12/7/20 at 10:15 am to SummerOfGeorge
This is an awesome breakdown and really helpful for betting.
Thank you!
Thank you!
Posted on 12/7/20 at 10:15 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Texas A&M Rush Yards (YPA): 347 yards (7.93 YPA on 46 plays)
I could see a split like this.
200 Spiller
100 Achane
50 Smith
This post was edited on 12/7/20 at 10:16 am
Posted on 12/7/20 at 10:16 am to Solo Cam
quote:
really helpful for betting
Woah woah woah....I do not recommend
Posted on 12/7/20 at 10:16 am to Solo Cam
His models have been pretty spot on this year. I think only the Georgia one was way off the mark. But who could have predicted the team finding itself in the second half of that contest? They've been on a roll ever since.
This post was edited on 12/7/20 at 10:17 am
Posted on 12/7/20 at 10:16 am to Farmer1906
quote:
I could see a split like this.
200 Spiller
100 Achane
50 Smith
Throw in Mond for 40 or 50?
Posted on 12/7/20 at 10:17 am to SummerOfGeorge
Have you gone back and graded yourself? Against the spread?
Posted on 12/7/20 at 10:19 am to Farmer1906
quote:
Have you gone back and graded yourself? Against the spread?
No - I don't really use it or look at in a gambling sense, so I haven't done that. I generally am more curious how close the YPP/YPA numbers came out. I just kind of started doing it and tinkering to see if my initial off the cuff thoughts on how a game would go were reasonable or not.
I might take a look at that later today just because I guess I'm curious now.
This post was edited on 12/7/20 at 10:21 am
Posted on 12/7/20 at 10:20 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
MISSOURI vs #12 GEORGIA (-13) (O/U 54)
Not even the biggest game in como Saturday
Posted on 12/7/20 at 10:21 am to SummerOfGeorge
Good call. Take those from Spiller and Smith. We probably won't need to give Anias many handoffs with Achane's emergence.
Unless we decide to run I again. We forced Auburn to stay in nickel by moving Spiller to fullback and Smith to tailback.
Unless we decide to run I again. We forced Auburn to stay in nickel by moving Spiller to fullback and Smith to tailback.
Posted on 12/7/20 at 10:23 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
12 GEORGIA
We are #8
Love these breakdowns btw
This post was edited on 12/7/20 at 10:24 am
Posted on 12/7/20 at 10:24 am to SummerOfGeorge
I know Gus’ buyout is enormous, but if they lose to Mississippi State, is him losing his job a possibility?
Posted on 12/7/20 at 10:25 am to diddlydawg7
quote:
We are #8
I thought #12 seemed low, must have crossed up.
Georgia's offensive one is the most volatile one this week. I basically only had 2 weeks to work with with Daniels, and the 2 weeks were so drastically different that an average of the two almost seems irrelevant. One week Daniels throws a bunch and Georgia can't run, the next week Daniels only throws a few times because Georgia runs at will.
Posted on 12/7/20 at 10:25 am to RebelTheBear
quote:
I know Gus’ buyout is enormous, but if they lose to Mississippi State, is him losing his job a possibility?
I gotta think it could be the cherry on top...
Posted on 12/7/20 at 10:25 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
MISSISSIPPI ST - 27 AUBURN - 24
That would make for some decidedly lonely Waffle House trips this off season.
Posted on 12/7/20 at 10:26 am to SummerOfGeorge
Which has been more accurate during the season, Vegas or the Model?
Posted on 12/7/20 at 10:27 am to Tidefan44
quote:
Which has been more accurate during the season, Vegas or the Model?
Model has been pretty good on Alabama games - the others I just kind of randomly pick and choose what to look at.
I'll go take a look and do a tally.
Posted on 12/7/20 at 10:28 am to SummerOfGeorge
Thanks
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