re: LSU's floor is still 6-4.....and they have a soft start to get kids reps

I think your problem is that you are confusing what’s likely for what’s possible.

They are starting an unproven QB, OL, DL, and LBs.

Also, there are injuries and there will be COVID cases. What happens when Stingley gets Covid?

I just think it’s ridiculous to rule out anything during a season as strange as this with a team as inexperienced as them.

Going 5-5 would mean losing a game as a multiple touchdown favorite and losing all 4 games against ranked teams. I absolutely have tempered expectations with chase and Shelvin gone but 7-3 is probably the most reasonable guess at this point. We also have not started the season yet and don’t know if any other teams will have opt outs close to the games and how that will affect things

quote:

---

I think your problem is that you are confusing what’s likely for what’s possible.

They are starting an unproven QB, OL, DL, and LBs.

Also, there are injuries and there will be COVID cases. What happens when Stingley gets Covid?

I just think it’s ridiculous to rule out anything during a season as strange as this with a team as inexperienced as them.

---

I'm working between the 10-90% range here. Yea, there is probably a less than 10% chance that on top of all of this everything else goes wrong too and they fall off the deep end and go 4-6. There is also probably a 10% chance it all clicks or they find ways to win weird games and they go 9-1.

I think the odds are pretty likely they go 6-4 or 7-3. Having 4 games on the schedule that are basically gimme wins really makes it a lot easier - as they'd have to lose every game there any reasonable possibility they lose to go 4-6.

quote:

---

The floor is 0-10.

---

You play Vanderbilt, so

quote:

---

You play Vanderbilt, so

---

The Commies put up 36 points on us last year.

I'm not taking anything for granted.

quote:

---

The floor is 0-10.

---

If we play, I think the floor (doomsday scenario) is 3-7. I don't see that happening, but 6-4 is a more realistic floor.

quote:

---

Having 4 games on the schedule that are basically gimme wins really makes it a lot easier

---

And as you posted earlier, the first 3 games are the biggest advantage. Get by State and you have 3 games of breaking everyone in. At Florida is tough in week 4 though. We also don't have to face UF, Auburn, Bama or A&M back to back.

quote:

---

So it sounds like you and I agree, but have different definitions of “floor”.

To me “Floor“ is anywhere higher than 1%

---

Then yes, I'd agree that there is more than a 1% chance they lose 5-6 games. Just not a whole lot more than 1%

quote:

---

For example, there was a less than 1% chance in February that the Braves rotation would be:

---

quote:

---

Ready to watch some Fried

---

And Ender!

quote:

---

So what is UGA’s floor? They could lose to Alabama, Florida, Auburn, Tennessee, South Carolina, Missouri and/or Kentucky if your floor is a >1% of a loss happening. Hell I’d even give State greater than 1% so I guess 2-8 is the floor for UGA right?

---

>1% chance of losing all games is what that means. Not per game.

Chance of losing:

Alabama (60%)
Florida (40%)
Auburn (35%)
Tennessee (30%)
Kentucky (25%)

Multiply those together and it equals 1%

Losing 6 games is a less than 1% chance in my opinion.