re: Lots of folks picking South Carolina this weekend

A&M and Carolina are shockingly similar in terms of what they can and can’t do. Hell Tennessee isn’t too much different either. Exciting year

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A&M and Carolina are shockingly similar in terms of what they can and can’t do. 

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That's my contention. Very similar teams, with very similar mindsets. Usually, you go with the home team in these cases.

But momentum is real, and aTm is feeling it right now. I fully expect there to be some rust on SC on Saturday. If aTm takes advantage and gets out to an early lead, SC is in trouble.

Conversely, if SC jumps out and plays like their hair is on fire like they did against LSU or Oklahoma, I don't think aTm has the offense to come back.

It should be an excellent game for neutral observers.

SC is better than their record and has a good defense.It's a dangerous game for the Aggies, especially coming off an emotional win.

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Negative he's been there as A&M DC a few times...

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Fair enough.

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A&M could’ve very easily been down 27-7 at the half and benefitted from Nussmeier becoming Max Johnson 2.0

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I mean A&M made mistakes throughout the game and so did LSU. Typically, in an evenly matched game, the team with less or less impactful mistakes wins.

If this is a clean game without significant TO's or ST plays that make it swing I like A&M's chances. I don't see a clear advantage for USC on any of the matchups, at best it is strength on strength.

A&M is the best running team USC will have played and we have a significant size advantage up front. USC likes to blitz the QB and get sacks and TO's. That's irrelevant with a Read Option. A&M loves to do lots of motion and traps with endless run combinations in terms of OL blocking techniques. Klein is as creative with running the ball as any OC around and he was a Read Option QB himself. Most of their rushing happens between the tackles with 8 and 5 gashing through creases and hitting the hole with explosiveness. Then you add in Reed. You have to stop the run or A&M will simply overpower you and A&M averages almost a 50lb per man advantage on the Line and they are athletic OL that like to hit people and get physical. That means it will take exceptional LB play combined with stunts that work in order to stop A&M. If they don't and A&M gets some 10-15 play drives in the first half physics dictates that the smaller and athletic team will tire and wear down. That's the big advantage on the offensive side. This has the added advantage of taking the crowd out of the game as well, nothing deflates a crowd more than sustained drives on the ground.

On the defensive side A&M has an elite DL and they are very difficult to run on even with really good running teams which USC is not. They also handle athletic QB's well and have freaks like Scourton and Stewart on the ends that run like LB's but are 280 and 290 lbs respectively. Williams and York are extremely disciplined and smart LB's (the last LSU pick by York was a coaches dream with how he saw the play and adjusted). So the way you have to beat A&M is with a precisely executed QB throwing the ball and getting protection. That's not really USC's game.

USC also is not great at sustaining drives and putting up a lot of points. They rely a lot on TO's and getting good field position from their D and they have a turnover problem themselves. Problem is that A&M is likely to go with Reed and pound the rock and Reed is very careful with the football. If A&M was going with Conner and dropping back that's a lot more concerning, that would feed right into USC's strengths on D and allow those super quick DE's to create havoc to go with blitzing.

USC can absolutely win this game but it is unlikely to do so in a clean game. They need A&M to play poorly, turn the ball over, and maybe have some mistakes in Special Teams. All of that can happen. If A&M gets the run game going though this could resemble the A&M/UF game though. A&M is a gritty team and has won on the road this year. They have also struggled and overcome multiple times. It's a big and physical team that likes to beat up the other team and they have a size advantage. Thus that's why I don't think USC can win unless it gets messy.

Just for the chaos, I hope South Carolina pulls it off. I love it when it’s a cut throat conference.

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If this is a clean game without significant TO's or ST plays that make it swing I like A&M's chances. I don't see a clear advantage for USC on any of the matchups, at best it is strength on strength.

A&M is the best running team USC will have played and we have a significant size advantage up front. USC likes to blitz the QB and get sacks and TO's. That's irrelevant with a Read Option. A&M loves to do lots of motion and traps with endless run combinations in terms of OL blocking techniques. Klein is as creative with running the ball as any OC around and he was a Read Option QB himself. Most of their rushing happens between the tackles with 8 and 5 gashing through creases and hitting the hole with explosiveness. Then you add in Reed. You have to stop the run or A&M will simply overpower you and A&M averages almost a 50lb per man advantage on the Line and they are athletic OL that like to hit people and get physical. That means it will take exceptional LB play combined with stunts that work in order to stop A&M. If they don't and A&M gets some 10-15 play drives in the first half physics dictates that the smaller and athletic team will tire and wear down. That's the big advantage on the offensive side. This has the added advantage of taking the crowd out of the game as well, nothing deflates a crowd more than sustained drives on the ground.

On the defensive side A&M has an elite DL and they are very difficult to run on even with really good running teams which USC is not. They also handle athletic QB's well and have freaks like Scourton and Stewart on the ends that run like LB's but are 280 and 290 lbs respectively. Williams and York are extremely disciplined and smart LB's (the last LSU pick by York was a coaches dream with how he saw the play and adjusted). So the way you have to beat A&M is with a precisely executed QB throwing the ball and getting protection. That's not really USC's game.

USC also is not great at sustaining drives and putting up a lot of points. They rely a lot on TO's and getting good field position from their D and they have a turnover problem themselves. Problem is that A&M is likely to go with Reed and pound the rock and Reed is very careful with the football. If A&M was going with Conner and dropping back that's a lot more concerning, that would feed right into USC's strengths on D and allow those super quick DE's to create havoc to go with blitzing.

USC can absolutely win this game but it is unlikely to do so in a clean game. They need A&M to play poorly, turn the ball over, and maybe have some mistakes in Special Teams. All of that can happen. If A&M gets the run game going though this could resemble the A&M/UF game though. A&M is a gritty team and has won on the road this year. They have also struggled and overcome multiple times. It's a big and physical team that likes to beat up the other team and they have a size advantage. Thus that's why I don't think USC can win unless it gets messy.

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I think A&M wins... but I think it's BECAUSE of significant turnovers.

SC had 4 turnovers (-2) against Bama where they lost by 2.
2 against ole miss (-1).
3 against LSU (-1)

While they had none against OU, that's not the norm for them. It's expected that they have turnover issues. It's also expected that they make special teams plays. While Beamer isn't as good a coach as his dad, his teams do have a bit of "beamer ball" to them when it comes to special teams. That is a part of college football and SC does it well.

A&M in the major conference matchups they won has won the turnover battle or been even.

+3 vs UF
+3 vs Arkansas
+2 vs LSU.
+1 vs MSU
even vs Mizzou.

They were -2 vs Notre Dame in their loss.

If it's a "clean game" where neither turns the ball over, I shift more toward thinking the game is a toss up rather than favoring A&M because part of my favoring A&M is based on SC losing the turnover battle.

SC's defense > A&M's offense.
A&M's defense > SC's offense.
SC's special teams > A&M's special teams.

I do think A&M's defense has a bigger edge than SC's does. But it's a close call if you are telling me that A&M and SC turn the ball over at the same rate in that game. A&M consistently winning the turnover battle is a big part of them winning games.

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Certainly some good points. However A&M's offense most closely resembles Ole Miss of the teams you have played and there is a reason we have won 4 or 5 SEC games by double digits. We will be the most physical team you have played so far. We do have a problem giving up some big plays but this team likes to beat teams up. I was honestly surprised at the size difference on the lines when I saw them. A&M goes 290, 300, 310, 280 on the DL to average 295 and all of those guys can move. The USC OL averages 312. South Carolina goes 254, 288, 303, 248 to average 273. Lots of speed and athleticism but not power. The A&M OL averages 324. That means USC is going to have to stack the hell out of the box to have a chance of stopping the A&M run game and Reed is very capable of doing play action, hitting screens, or throwing a slant in what will be a lot of 1v1s with no help.

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