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re: Line is now 10 1/2 pts.
Posted on 1/6/14 at 11:23 am to lowspark12
Posted on 1/6/14 at 11:23 am to lowspark12
Oh yeah, I have had local books in Bham, AU, and Mobile in the past. Line is ALWAYS skewed in bama's direction significantly. AU generally as well.
Helps when you want to go against bama though.
Helps when you want to go against bama though.
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Posted on 1/6/14 at 11:25 am to Louie T
The belief in "trap games" and vegas taking sides as a general practice is what I am referring to. I am intimately familiar with that theory.
Anyway, no offense and no need to argue about it. To each his own.
Anyway, no offense and no need to argue about it. To each his own.
Posted on 1/6/14 at 11:34 am to TailbackU
probably related to bama embarrassing the SEC against OU
Posted on 1/6/14 at 11:40 am to Tiger n Miami AU83
I've never said anything about trap games. My "taking a stance" has more to do with how much exposure a book is willing to take before they move the line. Books are a lot more willing to be exposed on certain sides for particular games.
I don't take offense to anything said on here, and I like to learn. I didn't word it how I wanted and I think there was a disconnect. Books won't take a "hard" stance and leave themselves getting blindsided, but they're definitely open to having more exposure on some than in others.
I don't take offense to anything said on here, and I like to learn. I didn't word it how I wanted and I think there was a disconnect. Books won't take a "hard" stance and leave themselves getting blindsided, but they're definitely open to having more exposure on some than in others.
This post was edited on 1/6/14 at 11:46 am
Posted on 1/6/14 at 11:46 am to Louie T
quote:
Books are a lot more willing to be exposed on certain sides for particular games.
You know just enough to be dangerous.
Vegas does not "expose" themselves. Every game, every sports bet, is handicapped in their favor.
They will not expose themselves anymore than the potential profit they stand to make on a game. At worse, they will be just above break even. Once they are close to exposure, the line moves.
Posted on 1/6/14 at 11:59 am to Jerry the Sailor
quote:Books have and will continue to have bad opening lines. Public and professional betters can and do land on the same side of bets, which will push it way off of the opening line. Oftentimes they can't move the line high enough in one direction to entice enough action to balance out their bets & moving the line a lot creates middle opportunities. That is exposure.
Vegas does not "expose" themselves. Every game, every sports bet, is handicapped in their favor.
They will not expose themselves anymore than the potential profit they stand to make on a game. At worse, they will be just above break even. Once they are close to exposure, the line moves.
This post was edited on 1/6/14 at 12:00 pm
Posted on 1/6/14 at 12:04 pm to Louie T
Unintentional exposure due to a bad opening line is not the same thing as Vegas "taking a stance on a game" and intentionally opening themselves up to exposure.
Vegas doesn't gamble.
Quit changing your argument to suit your needs.
Vegas doesn't gamble.
Quit changing your argument to suit your needs.
Posted on 1/6/14 at 12:09 pm to Jerry the Sailor
You said books are never exposed. I refuted the point.
Every single line move is predicted by an exact dollar figure? No... every single game is treated differently and handled as an independent event. Line moves aren't predicated by a precise dollar figure. Linemakers think about and discuss how much money they want on a side before they're interested in or are forced to move the line. How much money they're willing to take at a specific number is that sportbook's opinion on the game.
Every single line move is predicted by an exact dollar figure? No... every single game is treated differently and handled as an independent event. Line moves aren't predicated by a precise dollar figure. Linemakers think about and discuss how much money they want on a side before they're interested in or are forced to move the line. How much money they're willing to take at a specific number is that sportbook's opinion on the game.
Posted on 1/6/14 at 12:12 pm to Louie T
Keep fighting the good fight, semantics warrior.
Posted on 1/6/14 at 12:15 pm to Jerry the Sailor
You're the one fighting me on my choice to use the words stance and exposure. I've listened to guys like Kornegay and Scucci talk; they, without a doubt, willingly choose to have more risk in certain spots for bigger potential payouts.
This post was edited on 1/6/14 at 12:17 pm
Posted on 1/6/14 at 12:21 pm to Jerry the Sailor
Fyi, the moneyline just moved 30 points in AUs favor at ceasars books. Just happened.
Eta: meaning it AU moneyline backers just lost 30 points.Cesars trying to balance their book and get some more Fsu action.
Eta: meaning it AU moneyline backers just lost 30 points.Cesars trying to balance their book and get some more Fsu action.
This post was edited on 1/6/14 at 12:26 pm
Posted on 1/6/14 at 12:23 pm to Tiger n Miami AU83
Aub at +10.5 (-105) now on one of my online books
Hoping the vig falls a few more cents
Hoping the vig falls a few more cents
This post was edited on 1/6/14 at 12:24 pm
Posted on 1/6/14 at 12:30 pm to Louie T
quote:
Aub at +10.5 (-105) now on one of my online books
WTF could of possibly happened in the last few days to cause the line to move so much in the last 24 hrs.
I don't think Ohio State/Clemson would have that big of an impact.
Posted on 1/6/14 at 12:30 pm to Louie T
I'm pissed again. I put a bit more on AU at plus 310 earlier but not enough. Was going to go bigger on it now but lost 30 points.
About to go ahead and take AU plus 10.5. Almost all my bets are on the moneyline and people Luke me have been waiting to take AU as the line has climbed. It is about to drop.
About to go ahead and take AU plus 10.5. Almost all my bets are on the moneyline and people Luke me have been waiting to take AU as the line has climbed. It is about to drop.
Posted on 1/6/14 at 12:33 pm to Socratics
quote:
WTF could of possibly happened in the last few days to cause the line to move so much in the last 24 hrs.
Big money coming in late.
Posted on 1/6/14 at 12:59 pm to Tiger n Miami AU83
quote:Need to get yourself a couple online books. +340
I put a bit more on AU at plus 310 earlier but not enough. Was going to go bigger on it now but lost 30 points.
Posted on 1/6/14 at 1:05 pm to Louie T
60% of pub money on auburn. Sharps nailed FSU this mmorning
Posted on 1/6/14 at 1:17 pm to Louie T
I have had over about a dozen online books over the years. When I bet sports full time basically as a job I used a bunch for arbitrage reasons.
I don't fool with it anymore. I won 25k or so the yr I did it full time, but it was not worth it at all. I was putting in 40 hrs of work a week in sportsbetting over the yr and that isn't enough money for that ond of time commitment.
Now I just bet on a buddies line on occasion and when I am in vegas during football season. I'm hammering this game for three reasons. It is Auburn is by far the main one. Second is I like the value getting 3:1. Third is I am up gambling at the tables this trip and my last two and I got most of this trip comped as far as the room goes by PH. So, I'm willing to give some, but not all of it back or cash in big.
I don't fool with it anymore. I won 25k or so the yr I did it full time, but it was not worth it at all. I was putting in 40 hrs of work a week in sportsbetting over the yr and that isn't enough money for that ond of time commitment.
Now I just bet on a buddies line on occasion and when I am in vegas during football season. I'm hammering this game for three reasons. It is Auburn is by far the main one. Second is I like the value getting 3:1. Third is I am up gambling at the tables this trip and my last two and I got most of this trip comped as far as the room goes by PH. So, I'm willing to give some, but not all of it back or cash in big.
Posted on 1/6/14 at 1:18 pm to TheOcean
Whatever makes u feel better man.
Posted on 1/6/14 at 1:19 pm to Tiger n Miami AU83
You still have zero credibility. You haven't even commented on my rebuttal.
Also, go ahead and explain how the line jumped two points in FSU's favor with 60% of the pub on Auburn.
Also, go ahead and explain how the line jumped two points in FSU's favor with 60% of the pub on Auburn.
This post was edited on 1/6/14 at 1:20 pm
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