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re: Let’s Talk about “Private Equity”
Posted on 8/6/26 at 12:47 pm to Demosthenian
Posted on 8/6/26 at 12:47 pm to Demosthenian
quote:
This falls into the latter category of heedlessly over-levering and walking away when things go south.
Which checks out with my statement, as this deal’s parts were arranged ~15 years ago
The real reason we are not seeing more busted exits is that firms can't find exits. The whole industry has seized up and are just using continuation vehicles to extend and pretend.
A lot of folks have wised up to the racket.
Posted on 8/6/26 at 12:54 pm to OKinTX21
Appreciate the intelligent response.
3. Not sure how your assertion that a PE firm owns less than a founder is supporting anything against my positions. If you’re threading the needle that GP dollars invested = PE firm exposure and LP dollars invested =/= PE exposure, I fully disagree with that non-sensical partitioning. Almost every carry-structured deal has a de minimis of GP dollars invested, that’s the point! And PE firms remain legally and reputationally tied to their fiduciary stewardship of LP capital, so I don’t buy there’s an actual or effective difference in incentives as a result of which capital dollars are invested.
4. Simply incorrect here. There are examples across the tens of thousands of deals from history that supports any permutation, but as a theme, objective, and common practice, yes founders are sought to be involved and remain so, critically, through the next phase of ownership.
End-note: Not sure your reference of “LP” here. Do you mean “new institutional investor”, as was my reference? If so, yes they have adequate means to gain familiarity before committing to ownership and/or IPO participation, certainly no less than the PE sponsor had in its go-round from initial purchase
3. Not sure how your assertion that a PE firm owns less than a founder is supporting anything against my positions. If you’re threading the needle that GP dollars invested = PE firm exposure and LP dollars invested =/= PE exposure, I fully disagree with that non-sensical partitioning. Almost every carry-structured deal has a de minimis of GP dollars invested, that’s the point! And PE firms remain legally and reputationally tied to their fiduciary stewardship of LP capital, so I don’t buy there’s an actual or effective difference in incentives as a result of which capital dollars are invested.
4. Simply incorrect here. There are examples across the tens of thousands of deals from history that supports any permutation, but as a theme, objective, and common practice, yes founders are sought to be involved and remain so, critically, through the next phase of ownership.
End-note: Not sure your reference of “LP” here. Do you mean “new institutional investor”, as was my reference? If so, yes they have adequate means to gain familiarity before committing to ownership and/or IPO participation, certainly no less than the PE sponsor had in its go-round from initial purchase
Posted on 8/6/26 at 12:57 pm to Windy City
quote:firms aren’t seeing compelling offers from an exit event that would crystallize their returns profile more favorably than simply holding long-term as a dividend-oriented yield investment.
that firms can't find exits. The whole industry has seized up and are just using continuation vehicles to extend and pretend.
Which is a win-win for all stakeholders, most so for LPs and employees. In reality it’s only the PE partners that get to realize a less lucrative outcome, esp. if they have European waterfall-structured carry arrangements in their funds
Posted on 8/6/26 at 1:01 pm to Demosthenian
Why are we having a debate about PE when LSU isn't even involved with PE?
Posted on 8/6/26 at 1:19 pm to Demosthenian
quote:
firms aren’t seeing compelling offers from an exit event that would crystallize their returns profile more favorably than simply holding long-term as a dividend-oriented yield investment.
Which is a win-win for all stakeholders, most so for LPs and employees. In reality it’s only the PE partners that get to realize a less lucrative outcome, esp. if they have European waterfall-structured carry arrangements in their funds
The conceit of this is you saying it is ok to offer a highly illiquid and high fee investment strategy and the LPs only get dividend oriented investment yields that they could replicate elsewhere very easily in public markets without the fees and liquidity constraints. ,
That is only a win for the GP and not what LPs signed up for.
Posted on 8/6/26 at 1:19 pm to Windy City
Really not following any of that rambling.
quote:Ignore this post-IPO fact-pattern at your own loss: Twitter post on post-IPO performance from recent market and tech leaders
Public markets just swallowed the SpaceX rug-pull IPO
Posted on 8/6/26 at 1:24 pm to Demosthenian
I didn’t expect all this sissy liberal talk from a Georgia fan. Must be from ATL.
Posted on 8/6/26 at 1:27 pm to SidewalkTiger
quote:Well, if you’ve not been able to follow, everyone hates “PE” and thinks it’s terrible. This threads is correcting the record.
Why are we having a debate about PE when LSU isn't even involved with PE?
Also, my OP highlights how LSU leadership, Gov. Landry, and boosters sound like drunk mules fighting over turnips to proclaim what this hypothetical deal “is” and “is not”.
What it “is”, will be a financial mortgage on the LSU athletics department, and maybe the school and thus state budgets overall, simply to fund prior stupid fiscal dealings around irresponsible contracts, buyouts, and more irresponsible contracts.
What it “is not”, is any kind of “donation” that will leave the university unscathed
What it “is”, will be just as bad as the boogeyman nightmares of “PE” everyone is invoking breathlessly
Despite, as you correctly identify, it not actually coming from any actual “PE” source
Posted on 8/6/26 at 1:30 pm to Demosthenian
quote:
Ah, never actually.
Same for LSU
Posted on 8/6/26 at 1:33 pm to Windy City
quote:?
not what LPs signed up for.
Any LPs that previously had “signed up” have the option to sell their stake at the event date of transfer of the invested company at issue from the legacy PE fund to the continuation vehicle. They would voluntarily *elect* to continue with the investment (i.e. roll their equity stake into the new SPV) logically only if they accepted the net returns outlook from the CV oppt’y.
Don’t you know how these deals work? Or at you furiously researching in real-time just to foment an argument?
Posted on 8/6/26 at 1:38 pm to dbowe82
quote:Clearly a retard. Is that the response you were hoping for?
I didn’t expect all this sissy liberal talk from a Georgia fan. Must be from ATL.
But stands to reason someone illiterate in financial topics like, you, basic LSU poster, would think capitalism, investing, financial matters, etc. would think this is all “liberal” and not classic economic conservatism.
Love to know what you think about all the “liberal” “pussies” in every zip code in America living in larger houses than you
Posted on 8/6/26 at 1:41 pm to geauxbrown
quote:Well we can’t be in agreement on this, should we be arguing about it? You can’t disown your own profile!
Same for LSU
Posted on 8/6/26 at 1:45 pm to Demosthenian
quote:
I used to like LSU.
Cool story nerd
Posted on 8/6/26 at 1:47 pm to Demosthenian
3. I wouldn’t tell that to the founder who found out 30% of their net worth was wiped because the debt on the opco they sold 48 months ago was trading below par because the GP levered up their business right before an unprecedented rate hike campaign coupled with declining top line, contract roll offs, and poor management transition. While a 0 for any holding within any given buyout fund would suck, and make fundraising that much harder for the PE firm next go around, the impact is much less severe relatively speaking, especially if said GP is apart of a multi-strat investment product conglomerate like most big PE is nowadays. While I’ll concede that true alignment is a fairy tale, I would also argue that one side of this coin is steeped in logic (the GP) and the other side can be highly emotional (the exiting founder).
4. I’d love to know which funds you speak of because more often than not I see the founders phased out within 12 months. It’d be great if they stayed on, but you frankly don’t see that as much as you’d like to as an LP.
Using LP as a blanketed term for any sophisticated investor of a certain check size and mandate that can be assumed a participant in private markets. Not referring to retail, but pensions, endowments, large single family offices, foundations, etc, etc.
4. I’d love to know which funds you speak of because more often than not I see the founders phased out within 12 months. It’d be great if they stayed on, but you frankly don’t see that as much as you’d like to as an LP.
Using LP as a blanketed term for any sophisticated investor of a certain check size and mandate that can be assumed a participant in private markets. Not referring to retail, but pensions, endowments, large single family offices, foundations, etc, etc.
This post was edited on 8/6/26 at 1:53 pm
Posted on 8/6/26 at 1:49 pm to OKinTX21
Sorry for the run ons. Going stream of consciousness.
Posted on 8/6/26 at 1:59 pm to Demosthenian
quote:
Don’t you know how these deals work? Or at you furiously researching in real-time just to foment an argument?
Yes, although we stopped being active in these allocations 5 years ago for the reasons cited. I co-invested on many of the actual deals both in corp dev and family office roles for a longer period but moved on from that not too long after the GFC. .
The reality is that PE returns have struggled to keep pace with public market alternatives for a period of multiple decades at this point, performance reporting has always been shady in the industry, and the pivot to "operational value" is so far just a theoretical concept rather than any basis for reality.
That is why this conversation is a bit amusing. There is an ever rising tide of academic research, institutional investor commentary, and spot on observations from people ranging from Warren Buffett to Cliff Asness that the industry is is overcapitalized, built funds that were too large to deploy effectively, overpaid for assets, and now is basically a big teeming box of zombie companies that no one wants to take off their hands.
You clearly have an emotional, intellectual, and likely professional and financial interest in talking up the model\, but all your doing is saying what it could be in a perfect world and not what it is in reality.
And I say all of this realizing that we just have to agree to disagree,
Posted on 8/6/26 at 2:08 pm to OKinTX21
Yeah I think this is veering off course:
3. “I wouldn’t tell that to the founder”. What do you mean by “that”? I can’t find a claim I make that you’re asserting against. Is “that” supposed to mean “ethical alignment” or “economic alignment” perhaps? I can agree with you that economic exposure between GP and Founder wouldn’t be equivalent in all outcomes, but the counterfactual wasn’t anything I was asserting, nor does it inherently make “PE” “bad”, as the original source (ESPN article) repeatedly quoted from ignorant LSU reps
4. Between OK and TX, you must have some awareness to oil & gas. Show me a single investment where the PE firm bought out the founder and the founder was phased out.
End-note: I think you just missed what I was discussing. I’m talking about the subsequent owner. Whether that’s a corporation, the public markets, or a financial conglomerate. Invoking LP here in this context is incorrect and confuses understanding your point
3. “I wouldn’t tell that to the founder”. What do you mean by “that”? I can’t find a claim I make that you’re asserting against. Is “that” supposed to mean “ethical alignment” or “economic alignment” perhaps? I can agree with you that economic exposure between GP and Founder wouldn’t be equivalent in all outcomes, but the counterfactual wasn’t anything I was asserting, nor does it inherently make “PE” “bad”, as the original source (ESPN article) repeatedly quoted from ignorant LSU reps
4. Between OK and TX, you must have some awareness to oil & gas. Show me a single investment where the PE firm bought out the founder and the founder was phased out.
End-note: I think you just missed what I was discussing. I’m talking about the subsequent owner. Whether that’s a corporation, the public markets, or a financial conglomerate. Invoking LP here in this context is incorrect and confuses understanding your point
Posted on 8/6/26 at 2:23 pm to Windy City
quote:So you’ve been out of the loop for nearly 20 years, maybe you don’t know how these structures work.
moved on from that not too long after the GFC.
Yes based on that we should agree to “disagree”. Or maybe just accede to ending this discussion
quote:Conceding for discussion’s sake any or all of this is true, nothing that PE is offering is inherently “bad”, “dishonest”, or even “usury”. If nothing else it’s a way to allocate capital to large slices of the economy that do not list ownership in a public liquid market, and a way to diversify away from a specific market (i.e. public equities) that have a completely different volatility profile and capital flow dynamics. Those 2 reasons alone can be well worth the carry burden to gain exposure to otherwise macro economy drivers via corporate equity ownership.
The reality is that PE
quote:Falsifiable: everything is owned by someone at some point, and every sale has a divesting party and acquiring party. I walked through this.
no one wants to take off their hands.
quote:Not sure what this means. Relative to the public markets? Public company listing and admin costs are high, cap markets are volatile, and public owners are transitory and uninvolved. Many reasons companies and owners would voluntarily demand private equity capital, so it’s not at all factual there is an oversupply of capital to meet that demand.
the industry is is overcapitalized
Posted on 8/6/26 at 2:32 pm to Demosthenian
3. No, I’m following you. My first reply was to your reply to someone else with the “pros” of PE. One of those pros you listed was alignment via saying sellers roll alongside with PE. This implies a partnership of some sort. While that’s a nice thought, I’m arguing that is not reality in most instances. And I used the example that happens (quite often lately) where a founder gets burned by the GP botching the execution plan. Within that point, I also showed that, in addition to hardly being an equal partnership, it is also unequal with respect to economic incentives. First, in virtually every case the GP, being an appendage of a PE firm, is a gargantuan institution, whereas the seller is usually just some operator that is now rich, but hardly can compare to the size of a PE firm. Therefore, you saying that a co-invest structure supports alignment is nonsense and more just a way to make everyone feel “fuzzy and warm.” Moreover, if you read LPAs, there are ways the GP commit can be made synthetically.
4. Name one? I don’t know, I don’t work in energy. But I can find a myriad of consumer, tech, and healthcare where my point very much stands.
No, I understood you. Again, call them LPs, bag holders, the primary market, the acquirers, whatever. Call them North American mules for all I care. The point wasn't the terminology I used while typing on the toilet. Someone that is going to come on here trying to flex should be able to grasp what I’m writing.
4. Name one? I don’t know, I don’t work in energy. But I can find a myriad of consumer, tech, and healthcare where my point very much stands.
No, I understood you. Again, call them LPs, bag holders, the primary market, the acquirers, whatever. Call them North American mules for all I care. The point wasn't the terminology I used while typing on the toilet. Someone that is going to come on here trying to flex should be able to grasp what I’m writing.
Posted on 8/6/26 at 2:54 pm to OKinTX21
quote:
This implies
quote:
I don’t know
So you have no fricking clue and you’re fabricating positions to argue against.
quote:
the terminology I used while typing on the toilet
quote:God grow up, this defensiveness is so insecure. Stick to shitting from your arse, and not also your mouth.
Someone that is going to come on here trying to flex should be able to grasp what I’m writing.
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