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Let's humor the "alabama still has a chance" people for a second
Posted on 11/28/22 at 7:21 am
Posted on 11/28/22 at 7:21 am
People still think the committee is no different than the coaches poll, where you move up or down based on what's happened around you in the rankings. They say "well if bama if 5th or 6th, and a bunch of chaos happens, they could move up to 4!" That's wrong, but just for fun let's play that out. Let's assume the absolute maximum amount of chaos possible and ALL FOUR teams at the top lose this weekened.
For starters, you'd have champions of the SEC (LSU), Big 12 (KSU), Pac (Utah), and Big 10 (Purdue) all with AT LEAST 3 losses, so all of those teams are not even in the discussion. UNC has mega losses as well so if they win they're irrelevant. If Clemson wins they'd be the only P5 champion with less than 3 losses. Since we're going with absolute maximum amount of chaos even possible we'll assume UNC wins. Here is how the revised teams would shake out:
12-1 UGA; division winner
12-1 Michigan; division winner
12-1 TCU; division winner
11-1 OSU; --
11-2 USC; division winner
10-2 Bama; --
10-2 UT; -- (beat alabama HTH)
So...even with utter chaos the likes of which CFB has never seen that would make 2007 look like a cool spring picnic, you still have at leats 5 teams with easy cases to have better resumes. Plus another team with the exact same resume (same record, didn't win division) that beat alabama head to head.
So then if the narrative shifts to, "well, that's actually TOO MUCH chaos. Pretend 1-3 all hold serve we really just need USC to lose so we can slip into 4". The situation above still stands in that you'd have a USC with more wins, equal losses, that played in it's CCG. They would have better wins than alabama, and both of the losses would be a "quality loss".
Sooooo to sum up, there is literally no path whatsoever for alabama to make the playoffs. None at all. Hopefully this has been a good learning experience for some of you!
For starters, you'd have champions of the SEC (LSU), Big 12 (KSU), Pac (Utah), and Big 10 (Purdue) all with AT LEAST 3 losses, so all of those teams are not even in the discussion. UNC has mega losses as well so if they win they're irrelevant. If Clemson wins they'd be the only P5 champion with less than 3 losses. Since we're going with absolute maximum amount of chaos even possible we'll assume UNC wins. Here is how the revised teams would shake out:
12-1 UGA; division winner
12-1 Michigan; division winner
12-1 TCU; division winner
11-1 OSU; --
11-2 USC; division winner
10-2 Bama; --
10-2 UT; -- (beat alabama HTH)
So...even with utter chaos the likes of which CFB has never seen that would make 2007 look like a cool spring picnic, you still have at leats 5 teams with easy cases to have better resumes. Plus another team with the exact same resume (same record, didn't win division) that beat alabama head to head.
So then if the narrative shifts to, "well, that's actually TOO MUCH chaos. Pretend 1-3 all hold serve we really just need USC to lose so we can slip into 4". The situation above still stands in that you'd have a USC with more wins, equal losses, that played in it's CCG. They would have better wins than alabama, and both of the losses would be a "quality loss".
Sooooo to sum up, there is literally no path whatsoever for alabama to make the playoffs. None at all. Hopefully this has been a good learning experience for some of you!
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Posted on 11/28/22 at 7:22 am to WG_Dawg
what would be the case if all teams lost this weekend. Do they all make it in with a loss. I find it hard to believe TCU is in even if they lose
Posted on 11/28/22 at 7:25 am to mrbroker
quote:
what would be the case if all teams lost this weekend. Do they all make it in with a loss
Every prediction I ever make on the topic is based on precedent of what the committee has done in the past, and it goes without saying that this would certainly be a new one. A playoff with no P5 champions? It's crazy. But even with total chaos, I just don't see any logical, rational way to look at alabmaa's resume and say "yep, they desreve it". If we're going by the ever so subjective eye test and "best team" then yeah, there aren't 4 other teams I'd prefer to play less than alabama. But they go by objective resumes, and there's is failing. Even with a TCU for example, how do you put in a 2-loss bama with zero good quality wins that didnbt' really win anything of substance all year over a team that went 12-0 and played for hteir CCG and ended wiht 1 loss? You just can't do it, I don't think.
Posted on 11/28/22 at 7:29 am to WG_Dawg
quote:
10-2 Bama; --
10-2 UT; -- (beat alabama HTH)
I'm still confused how Bama is above UT in any of the rankings. SC just knocked off Clemson, so the UT loss there isn't as horrible looking. Tenn beat Bama h2h, and Bama's other loss (LSU) not only lost to Tenn as well, but just got smoked by aTm.
Posted on 11/28/22 at 7:31 am to WG_Dawg
If you wanna put another SEC team in the CFP, some boys in Columbia are willing.
They've got a pretty good track record against "playoff teams."
They've got a pretty good track record against "playoff teams."
Posted on 11/28/22 at 7:31 am to WG_Dawg
If Bama is 5th Tuesday, I think they have a small chance. I think a 2 loss Bama has a chance to get in if USC loses. Tcu is in, unless they get blown out. If Bama is sixth, which I think they will be, then I think they're done. Jmo.
This post was edited on 11/28/22 at 7:32 am
Posted on 11/28/22 at 7:33 am to RoyalAir
Ok now I know sc survives in Death Valley with a 1 point win now they are the second coming just like tools gold lsu after a 1 point win over bama when are we gonna learn to stop over reacting
Posted on 11/28/22 at 7:34 am to WG_Dawg
I’ve noticed you try to talk sense into some of these people man. It’s literally like arguing with a brick wall man. People just don’t get it. You’re fighting a losing battle sir. I don’t even know why you try but I commend you on trying. People won’t listen though man, it won’t happen.
Posted on 11/28/22 at 7:35 am to WG_Dawg
Someone is scared.
Posted on 11/28/22 at 7:35 am to Easye921
At 5th, they would have a shot.
Guess we know Tuesday.
Guess we know Tuesday.
Posted on 11/28/22 at 7:35 am to Hook Em Horns
If we can reach just one single child I mean poster, and 10/11 months from now he applies that knowledge into a conversation with his buddies when playoff time comes up again, then it'll all have been worth it.
Posted on 11/28/22 at 7:35 am to WG_Dawg
You guys ignore facts and use your own truth then melt when your truth in the end is proven to be false.
The committee respected the SEC so much they ranked two-loss LSU over USC and two-loss Alabama over Clemson.
They have already given precedent for ranking two-loss over one-loss.
The committee respected the SEC so much they ranked two-loss LSU over USC and two-loss Alabama over Clemson.
They have already given precedent for ranking two-loss over one-loss.
Posted on 11/28/22 at 7:36 am to WG_Dawg
I don't think we get in either. But the thought of us even being in the conversation scares the shite out of some of you.
Posted on 11/28/22 at 7:37 am to YStar
quote:
ou guys ignore facts and use your own truth
oh now this is hilarious. Perhaps you've missed the thread I started with LITERALLY only facts and committee decisions? Sounds like you're the one using emotions and feelings instaed of facts.
quote:
They have already given precedent for ranking two-loss over one-loss.
In the playoffs? Well please, by all means share with us when that happened.
Posted on 11/28/22 at 7:37 am to PJinAtl
quote:
I'm still confused how Bama is above UT in any of the rankings.
Well because you ignore what the committee actually is doing and saying and listen to idiots like OP.
OP was one who was swearing before last Tuesday that Alabama wouldn't move up and they would be behind tenn and Clemson.
Posted on 11/28/22 at 7:38 am to TideTurf
quote:
the thought of us even being in the conversation scares the shite out of some of you.
it definitely does some people, as evidenced by the fact I've had to start this thread. It doesn't mvoe the needle for me because I know, for a complete and total fact, that it isn't happening. It's no different than me thinking about the possibility of penn state or someone making it. Why be scared of something that can't happen?
Posted on 11/28/22 at 7:41 am to YStar
quote:
OP was one who was swearing before last Tuesday that Alabama wouldn't move up and they would be behind tenn and Clemson.
Can you link this for us?
You obviously have me confused with someone, because this thread is pretty much all I've said on the topic: LINK
which is based on nothing more than, again...facts and actual decision making by the committee.
Posted on 11/28/22 at 7:41 am to WG_Dawg
quote:
Perhaps you've missed the thread I started with LITERALLY only facts and committee decisions?
That is your opinionated drivel from the fear Alabama could back-in.
The facts are what I have stated; the committee has already ranked two-loss SEC teams over one-loss teams from other conferences because they respect the strength of the conference.
They have already given precedence.
The irony is you would melt crying if they ranked Georgia under Michigan and TCU talking about how much harder it is playing in the SEC but than throw that out the door when it isn't beneficial (obviously due to fear).
quote:
In the playoffs? Well please, by all means share with us when that happened.
This is a new committee. They have said that many times they have their own way of seeing things so you just see how they have voted.
See a trend here? You keep ignoring what they do and say for what you believe which isn't the reality.
Posted on 11/28/22 at 7:44 am to YStar
quote:
The irony is you would melt crying if they ranked Georgia under Michigan and TCU talking about how much harder it is playing in the SEC but than throw that out the door when it isn't beneficial (obviously due to fear).
And this is why he's trying to "calm" the masses. Lmfaoo
Posted on 11/28/22 at 7:46 am to WG_Dawg
I’m confused on why anyone thinks Bama will be 5th and Ohio state is 6th? That would be the dumbest jump.
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