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Latest Playoff Projections...how do you see this shaking out?

Posted on 12/7/24 at 9:16 pm
Posted by Chicken
Jackassistan
Member since Aug 2003
24332 posts
Posted on 12/7/24 at 9:16 pm
As everyone should know, the top four conference winners get the four bye spots:

1 Oregon
2. Georgia
3. Boise State
4. Arizona State

So, the 5 seed, the 6 seed and the 7 seed would go to Texas, Notre Dame or the Oregon/Penn State loser in some order. How would you rank them?

- The 5 seed gets the "easiest" first round opponent and has a chance to play the "weakest" conference champion (4 seed) in the quarterfinals.

- The 6 seed will probably get to the 11 seed (Bama? Clemson?), and the winner of that game also gets an "easy" quarterfinal game against the 3 seed.

- The 7 seed will have a decent first round opponent and the winner of that has to play UGA in the Sugar Bowl.

- The 8 and 9 seeds (likely Ohio State at 8 and Tennessee at 9) will be two strong teams, who will need to face Oregon in the Rose Bowl.

How do you see this shaking out?

My guess at seedings:
1 Oregon
2. Georgia
3. Boise State
4. Arizona State
5. Texas
6. Notre Dame
7. Penn State
8. Ohio State
9. Tennessee
10. Indiana
11. Clemson
12. SMU

Which would give us:
8. Ohio State vs 9. Tennessee
Winner plays 1. Oregon

7. Penn State vs 10. Indiana
Winner plays 2. Georgia

6. Notre Dame vs 11. Clemson
Winner plays 3. Boise State

5. Texas vs 12. SMU
Winner plays 4. Arizona State

If Bama sneaks in, I think it will be
11. Alabama
12. Clemson

*****************

Last Week's Rankings:
1. Oregon 13-0 (beat Penn State)
2. Texas 11-2 (lost to Georgia)
3. Penn State 11-2 (lost to Oregon)
4. Notre Dame 11-1
5. Georgia 11-2 (beat Texas)
6. Ohio St. 10-2
7. Tennessee 10-2
8. SMU 11-2 (lost to Clemson)
9. Indiana 11-1
10. Boise St. 12-1 (beat UNLV)
11. Alabama 9-3
12. Miami 10-2
13. Ole Miss 9-3
14. South Carolina 9-3
15. Arizona St. 10-2 (beat Iowa St.)
16. Iowa St. 10-2 (lost to Arizona St.)
17. Clemson 10-3 (beat SMU)

This post was edited on 12/7/24 at 11:43 pm
Posted by TripleBarrelBluff1
Sin City
Member since Aug 2024
2430 posts
Posted on 12/7/24 at 9:20 pm to
quote:

If SMU wins


I think you can go ahead and forget about this scenario.
Posted by Chicken
Jackassistan
Member since Aug 2003
24332 posts
Posted on 12/7/24 at 9:21 pm to
quote:

I think you can go ahead and forget about this scenario
still a lot of time left...
Posted by TripleBarrelBluff1
Sin City
Member since Aug 2024
2430 posts
Posted on 12/7/24 at 9:25 pm to
quote:

still a lot of time left...


They could play for 3 more days and SMU isn't winning.
Posted by Bama Bird
Member since Dec 2011
Member since Mar 2013
21754 posts
Posted on 12/7/24 at 9:25 pm to
Oregon win (if this doesn't finish in a blowout):
1. Oregon
2. Georgia
3. Boise State
4. Arizona State
5. Notre Dame
6. Penn State
7. Texas
8. Ohio State

Penn State win
1. Penn State
2. Georgia
3. Boise State
4. Arizona State
5. Oregon
6. Notre Dame
7. Texas
8. Ohio State

If B1G finishes with an Oregon blowout (still possible), PSU could fall below Ohio State and Texas
Posted by DawginSC
Member since Aug 2022
7341 posts
Posted on 12/7/24 at 9:25 pm to
Assuming OU over PSU and Clemson over SMU.

1 Oregon
vs
8 - Texas vs 9 - Tennessee

2 UGA
vs
7 - PSU vs 10 Indiana

3 Boise State
vs
6 - OSU vs 11 Clemson

4 ASU
vs
5 - Notre Dame vs 12 Alabama

I think they are looking to avoid UGA playing Texas or Oregon playing PSU in round 2. In reality Texas should be ahead of PSU, but they'll be able to manage things for TV.

I think Clemson is above Bama to have a potential Bama/OSU game in the final 4.
Posted by BigNastyTiger417
Member since Nov 2021
4220 posts
Posted on 12/7/24 at 9:27 pm to
Clemson & Arizona St. should be in.

SMU & Bama should be out.
Posted by scrooster
Resident Ethicist
Member since Jul 2012
40977 posts
Posted on 12/7/24 at 9:27 pm to
I'm in NJ tonight hammered at the Beach Comber in Seaside Heights watching Shorty Long.

Even these NJ people think this current system sucks.

There's no justifying how any of this is gonna play out.

Anyways, well done UGA! frick the sheep humping sister banging taterhead. frick the B1G ... I don't like pulling for either of these B1G reps.

The bartenders are fricking gorgeous.
Posted by Chicken
Jackassistan
Member since Aug 2003
24332 posts
Posted on 12/7/24 at 9:28 pm to
Why would Ohio State over Penn State and Texas (both with close losses) move up to 6th seed despite not playing?
Posted by Nevantin
Member since Sep 2024
43 posts
Posted on 12/7/24 at 9:28 pm to
It appears SMU will lose, so we don’t know if Bama is in or out.
I’m guessing Texas will be the six seed and play either Bama or SMU.
This post was edited on 12/7/24 at 9:29 pm
Posted by DawginSC
Member since Aug 2022
7341 posts
Posted on 12/7/24 at 9:32 pm to
quote:

Why would Ohio State over Penn State and Texas (both with close losses) move up to 6th seed despite not playing?


They aren't moving up. Texas and PSU are moving down.

The teams that didn't play are maintaining their ranking in respect to each other.


Though you could flip Texas and OSU and it comes out about the same:

1 Oregon
vs
8 - OSU vs 9 - Tennessee

2 UGA
vs
7 - PSU vs 10 Indiana

3 Boise State
vs
6 - Texas vs 11 Clemson

4 ASU
vs
5 - Notre Dame vs 12 Alabama
This post was edited on 12/7/24 at 9:35 pm
Posted by Nevantin
Member since Sep 2024
43 posts
Posted on 12/7/24 at 9:32 pm to
I doubt they line up the SEC and Big 10 teams up in the same bracket. Texas and Ohio State will shift around d to ensure they wouldn’t play Georgia or Oregon until the title game.
Posted by Chicken
Jackassistan
Member since Aug 2003
24332 posts
Posted on 12/7/24 at 9:34 pm to
quote:

They aren't moving up. Texas and PSU are moving down. The teams that didn't play are maintaining their ranking in respect to each other.

you can drop Texas and Penn State and still keep them above Ohio State. Makes no sense to improve Ohio State seeding if they didn't play, and those other teams had close games
Posted by PsychTiger
Member since Jul 2004
104213 posts
Posted on 12/7/24 at 9:35 pm to
quote:

The bartenders are fricking gorgeous.


There are rules …
Posted by DawginSC
Member since Aug 2022
7341 posts
Posted on 12/7/24 at 9:40 pm to
quote:

you can drop Texas and Penn State and still keep them above Ohio State. Makes no sense to improve Ohio State seeding if they didn't play, and those other teams had close games


They're going to massage the rankings to get a bracket good for TV. They don't want UGA or the Big 10 champion to have a rematch of their championship game in round 1.

To be honest I don't think they want OSU vs Oregon in round two either... or UGA vs Tennessee. That's why I think they do end up dropping Texas to 8 and PSU at 7 while OSU moves to 6th.
Posted by llfshoals
Member since Nov 2010
19230 posts
Posted on 12/7/24 at 9:43 pm to
I like it. Choices make a lot of sense on the matchups.

Committee would be salivating over

ND - Bama
Clemson - Ohio State
Posted by JPLSU1981
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2005
26895 posts
Posted on 12/7/24 at 9:44 pm to
quote:

Clemson & Arizona St. should be in.



Ummm. They are in, automatically. Assuming Clemson score holds.

The only question that remains is SMU or Bama for the final spot. History tells me Bama but I honestly don’t know. Committee may leave SMU over Bama ??
This post was edited on 12/7/24 at 9:50 pm
Posted by Chicken
Jackassistan
Member since Aug 2003
24332 posts
Posted on 12/7/24 at 9:56 pm to
quote:

They're going to massage the rankings to get a bracket good for TV.
they can't massage too much...Texas losing a heart breaker in OT to UGA and then dropping below Ohio State who didn't have to play makes no sense. I can see Penn State below Ohio State but even that doesn't seem fair.

5 and 6 seeds appear to have noticeable advantage over 7, so it would look really bad to not rank 5, 6, and 7 purely on who is best.
Posted by RealDawg
Dawgville
Member since Nov 2012
10709 posts
Posted on 12/7/24 at 9:58 pm to
Oregon
UGA
Boise
ASU

ND
Texas
OSU
Penn State

Tenner
Indiana
Alabama
Clemson

ND/Clemson - AsU
Texas/Bama - Boise
OSU/Indiana - Georgia
Penn St/Tenner - Oregon
This post was edited on 12/7/24 at 10:05 pm
Posted by Chicken
Jackassistan
Member since Aug 2003
24332 posts
Posted on 12/7/24 at 9:59 pm to
quote:

1 Oregon
vs
8 - Texas vs 9 - Tennessee

2 UGA
vs
7 - PSU vs 10 Indiana

3 Boise State
vs
6 - OSU vs 11 Clemson

4 ASU
vs
5 - Notre Dame vs 12 Alabama


I will counter with:

1 Oregon
vs
8 - Ohio State vs 9 - Tennessee

2 UGA
vs
7 - PSU vs 10 Indiana

3 Boise State
vs
6 - Notre Dame vs 11 Alabama

4 ASU
vs
5 - Texas vs 12 Clemson

1 Oregon
2. Georgia
3. Boise State
4. Arizona State
5. Texas
6. Notre Dame
7. Penn State
8. Ohio State
9. Tennessee
10. Indiana
11. Alabama
12. Clemson
This post was edited on 12/7/24 at 10:08 pm
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