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KenPom SEC Hoops Update (Quality Wins and Bad Losses so far)
Posted on 12/5/16 at 5:17 pm
Posted on 12/5/16 at 5:17 pm
This is a far better methodology than RPI until about mid-February. The two usually get pretty close together by the end of the season as the RPI normalizes.
The SEC has done a tremendous job of avoiding losses to sub 100 teams (Only 3 so far). Some good chances to get top 50 wins here in the next month and then obviously in late January with some very good Big XII opponents in the challenge.
4. Kentucky 7-1
Good Wins: Michigan State (38)
Bad Losses: None
Remaining Top 50 OOC Games: North Carolina (3), @ Louisville (7), vs. Kansas (5)
12. Florida 7-1
Good Wins: Seton Hall (46), Miami (FL) (29)
Bad Losses: None
Remaining Top 50 OOC Games: Duke (2), @ Florida State (31), @ Oklahoma (42)
32. Texas A&M 4-2
Good Wins: Virginia Tech (33)
Bad Losses: None
Remaining Top 50 OOC Games: vs. Arizona (27), @ West Virginia (9)
35. South Carolina 8-0
Good Wins: vs. Michigan (26), Syracuse (23)
Bad Losses: None
Remaining Top 50 OOC Games: @ Seton Hall (46), vs. Clemson (36)
49. Arkansas 6-1
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: None
Remaining Top 50 OOC Games: @ Oklahoma State (47)
62. Georgia 5-3
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: None
Remaining Top 50 OOC Games: None
70. Vanderbilt 4-4
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: vs. Bucknell (141)
Remaining Top 50 OOC Games: @ Dayton (39), vs. Iowa State (28)
78. Alabama 4-3
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: None
Remaining Top 50 OOC Games: @ Oregon (20), vs. Clemson (36)
91. LSU 5-2
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: None
Remaining Top 50 OOC Games: @ Texas Tech (37)
95. Tennessee 3-3
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: None
Remaining Top 50 OOC Games: @ North Carolina (3), vs. Gonzaga (14), vs. Kansas State (34)
100. Ole Miss 6-2
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: None
Remaining Top 50 OOC Games: @ Virginia Tech (33), vs. Baylor (11)
105. Auburn 6-1
Good Wins: Texas Tech (37)
Bad Losses: None
Remaining Top 50 OOC Games: Oklahoma (42), @ TCU (45)
119. Mississippi State 6-2
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: vs. Lehigh (109)
Remaining Top 50 OOC Games: None
157. Missouri 4-3
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: vs. North Carolina Central (209)
Remaining Top 50 OOC Games: vs. Arizona (27),
The SEC has done a tremendous job of avoiding losses to sub 100 teams (Only 3 so far). Some good chances to get top 50 wins here in the next month and then obviously in late January with some very good Big XII opponents in the challenge.
4. Kentucky 7-1
Good Wins: Michigan State (38)
Bad Losses: None
Remaining Top 50 OOC Games: North Carolina (3), @ Louisville (7), vs. Kansas (5)
12. Florida 7-1
Good Wins: Seton Hall (46), Miami (FL) (29)
Bad Losses: None
Remaining Top 50 OOC Games: Duke (2), @ Florida State (31), @ Oklahoma (42)
32. Texas A&M 4-2
Good Wins: Virginia Tech (33)
Bad Losses: None
Remaining Top 50 OOC Games: vs. Arizona (27), @ West Virginia (9)
35. South Carolina 8-0
Good Wins: vs. Michigan (26), Syracuse (23)
Bad Losses: None
Remaining Top 50 OOC Games: @ Seton Hall (46), vs. Clemson (36)
49. Arkansas 6-1
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: None
Remaining Top 50 OOC Games: @ Oklahoma State (47)
62. Georgia 5-3
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: None
Remaining Top 50 OOC Games: None
70. Vanderbilt 4-4
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: vs. Bucknell (141)
Remaining Top 50 OOC Games: @ Dayton (39), vs. Iowa State (28)
78. Alabama 4-3
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: None
Remaining Top 50 OOC Games: @ Oregon (20), vs. Clemson (36)
91. LSU 5-2
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: None
Remaining Top 50 OOC Games: @ Texas Tech (37)
95. Tennessee 3-3
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: None
Remaining Top 50 OOC Games: @ North Carolina (3), vs. Gonzaga (14), vs. Kansas State (34)
100. Ole Miss 6-2
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: None
Remaining Top 50 OOC Games: @ Virginia Tech (33), vs. Baylor (11)
105. Auburn 6-1
Good Wins: Texas Tech (37)
Bad Losses: None
Remaining Top 50 OOC Games: Oklahoma (42), @ TCU (45)
119. Mississippi State 6-2
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: vs. Lehigh (109)
Remaining Top 50 OOC Games: None
157. Missouri 4-3
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: vs. North Carolina Central (209)
Remaining Top 50 OOC Games: vs. Arizona (27),
5
Posted on 12/5/16 at 5:22 pm to volfan30
Vandy, Miss St, Mizzou.....y'all ALREADY got a bad loss? 
Posted on 12/5/16 at 5:27 pm to volfan30
I'm new to being a fan of a basketball school. I just don't get RPI or KenPom early in the season. It just seems to rely so much on stupid metrics that won't come into play for months, or on expectations.
For example:
49. Arkansas 6-1
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: None
Remaining Top 50 OOC Games: @ Oklahoma State (47)
62. Georgia 5-3
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: None
Remaining Top 50 OOC Games: None
70. Vanderbilt 4-4
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: vs. Bucknell (141)
Remaining Top 50 OOC Games: @ Dayton (39), vs. Iowa State (28)
78. Alabama 4-3
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: None
Remaining Top 50 OOC Games: @ Oregon (20), vs. Clemson (36)
91. LSU 5-2
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: None
Remaining Top 50 OOC Games: @ Texas Tech (37)
95. Tennessee 3-3
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: None
Remaining Top 50 OOC Games: @ North Carolina (3), vs. Gonzaga (14), vs. Kansas State (34)
100. Ole Miss 6-2
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: None
Remaining Top 50 OOC Games: @ Virginia Tech (33), vs. Baylor (11)
105. Auburn 6-1
Good Wins: Texas Tech (37)
Bad Losses: None
Remaining Top 50 OOC Games: Oklahoma (42), @ TCU (45)
Honestly, what am I supposed to take away from this?
I'm not convinced AU is better than those teams, but I'm certainly not convinced that 4-3 Alabama with no good wins is 27 spots ahead of us.
Nor am I convinced that our win over Texas Tech is a good win.
Someone explain this shite to me.
For example:
49. Arkansas 6-1
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: None
Remaining Top 50 OOC Games: @ Oklahoma State (47)
62. Georgia 5-3
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: None
Remaining Top 50 OOC Games: None
70. Vanderbilt 4-4
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: vs. Bucknell (141)
Remaining Top 50 OOC Games: @ Dayton (39), vs. Iowa State (28)
78. Alabama 4-3
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: None
Remaining Top 50 OOC Games: @ Oregon (20), vs. Clemson (36)
91. LSU 5-2
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: None
Remaining Top 50 OOC Games: @ Texas Tech (37)
95. Tennessee 3-3
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: None
Remaining Top 50 OOC Games: @ North Carolina (3), vs. Gonzaga (14), vs. Kansas State (34)
100. Ole Miss 6-2
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: None
Remaining Top 50 OOC Games: @ Virginia Tech (33), vs. Baylor (11)
105. Auburn 6-1
Good Wins: Texas Tech (37)
Bad Losses: None
Remaining Top 50 OOC Games: Oklahoma (42), @ TCU (45)
Honestly, what am I supposed to take away from this?
I'm not convinced AU is better than those teams, but I'm certainly not convinced that 4-3 Alabama with no good wins is 27 spots ahead of us.
Nor am I convinced that our win over Texas Tech is a good win.
Someone explain this shite to me.
Posted on 12/5/16 at 5:33 pm to Pettifogger
KenPom is predictive (whereas the RPI is not) thus it is much less prone to fluctuations. By February though KenPom is straight data with no predictions or other weights.
For example the top 10 in KenPom is
Villanova
Duke
UNC
Kentucky
Kansas
Virginia
Louisville
Wisconsin
West Virginia
St. Mary's
RPI Top 10
Baylor
Creighton
Florida
Villanova
St. Mary's
TCU
Gonzaga
Minnesota
MTSU
Xavier
Obviously the KenPom Top 10 is much more like the polls and much closer to what the RPI Top 10 will likely be by the end of the season.
KenPom is basically a running 1-351 power ranking that is updated with data from every game and adjusted dynamically.
For example the top 10 in KenPom is
Villanova
Duke
UNC
Kentucky
Kansas
Virginia
Louisville
Wisconsin
West Virginia
St. Mary's
RPI Top 10
Baylor
Creighton
Florida
Villanova
St. Mary's
TCU
Gonzaga
Minnesota
MTSU
Xavier
Obviously the KenPom Top 10 is much more like the polls and much closer to what the RPI Top 10 will likely be by the end of the season.
KenPom is basically a running 1-351 power ranking that is updated with data from every game and adjusted dynamically.
Posted on 12/5/16 at 5:36 pm to volfan30
quote:
KenPom is predictive (whereas the RPI is not) thus it is much less prone to fluctuations.
So, how does this make it better early on in the season? This sounds like it is much more subject to predetermined bias on teams than on actual on court production.
Posted on 12/5/16 at 5:39 pm to volfan30
So KenPom is still heavily reliant on preseason expectations, is that right? Meanwhile, in our example, AU went from like 200 to 20 something in RPI because it's focused on where we stand today (at least how RPI gauges it).
I'm not arguing for RPI over KenPom, as it makes no more intuitive sense than KenPom does.
But in KenPom, Auburn with a decent record after playing a mediocre but not terrible OOC schedule is ranked sub 100 while UGA is 60ish because KenPom thinks UGA is a better team and that will eventually show up as the season progresses, is that correct?
I'm not arguing for RPI over KenPom, as it makes no more intuitive sense than KenPom does.
But in KenPom, Auburn with a decent record after playing a mediocre but not terrible OOC schedule is ranked sub 100 while UGA is 60ish because KenPom thinks UGA is a better team and that will eventually show up as the season progresses, is that correct?
Posted on 12/5/16 at 5:46 pm to GoCrazyAuburn
I would encourage you to read this.
LINK
As I said it is dynamic and if AU continues to surpass the formula's expectations they will continue to rise. The portion of the formula that is predictive decreases each day until it has no impact by February.
LINK
As I said it is dynamic and if AU continues to surpass the formula's expectations they will continue to rise. The portion of the formula that is predictive decreases each day until it has no impact by February.
Posted on 12/5/16 at 5:51 pm to Pettifogger
Yeah I don't necessarily get it either, I use whatever method puts my team in the best light or trolls someone else, as any sensible ranter would. It is nice to know that we have two wins that are better than everyone else's wins though.
Posted on 12/5/16 at 5:51 pm to Pettifogger
quote:
So KenPom is still heavily reliant on preseason expectations, is that right? Meanwhile, in our example, AU went from like 200 to 20 something in RPI because it's focused on where we stand today (at least how RPI gauges it).
I'm not arguing for RPI over KenPom, as it makes no more intuitive sense than KenPom does.
But in KenPom, Auburn with a decent record after playing a mediocre but not terrible OOC schedule is ranked sub 100 while UGA is 60ish because KenPom thinks UGA is a better team and that will eventually show up as the season progresses, is that correct?
This is essentially correct. Margin of victory and even in game leverage are also included in KenPom, where as they're not in RPI.
Tennessee's 2014 Sweet 16 team blew out a lot of good opponents and every game they lost seemed to be close. KenPom attributes that to poor luck since there's only a 35 game sample size and thus a 13 loss Tennessee team that had to play in a play in game as an 11 seed was ranked #10 overall on KenPom. Tennessee ended up 1 point away from the Elite 8, so it verified the ranking somewhat, but that is just one example of the factors that come in to play.
Conversely, if your team wins in a lot of close games and loses in blowout fashion somewhat often KenPom will deem you lucky and you will likely be ranked much lower than maybe your record would indicate.
Posted on 12/5/16 at 5:56 pm to volfan30
Thanks, yeah I just saw where Auburn was ranked high in the luck category. It's interesting, as we have slouched to some close wins and our one loss (against a solid team) was a blowout.
But, Purdue put up absurd numbers in that game that they won't replicate and probably should help us with the luck rating (lowering ours), but I know that's too homeristic for a system to factor.
But, Purdue put up absurd numbers in that game that they won't replicate and probably should help us with the luck rating (lowering ours), but I know that's too homeristic for a system to factor.
Posted on 12/5/16 at 6:06 pm to Pettifogger
Here is the full AU team page fwiw.
"Beating" that projected margin of victory is how you move up the rankings fwiw. Usually those projections are within a point or so of the Vegas line so if you cover in a win or loss you will probably move up in KenPom, how much depends on the margin.
The projected scores, percentages, record projection etc. change every day based on every result obviously.
This post was edited on 12/5/16 at 6:10 pm
Posted on 12/5/16 at 6:14 pm to volfan30
So if we beat BC by more than 5, we should move up?
Posted on 12/5/16 at 6:17 pm to Weagle25
Yes.
This post was edited on 12/5/16 at 6:19 pm
Posted on 12/5/16 at 6:19 pm to volfan30
quote:
Conversely, if your team wins in a lot of close games and loses in blowout fashion somewhat often KenPom will deem you lucky and you will likely be ranked much lower than maybe your record would indicate.
What a silly factor in rankings.
Posted on 12/5/16 at 6:30 pm to volfan30
Barnes was left with shite after Conzone bailing and the Mike Huckabee hire. I think he'll right the ship there eventually
Posted on 12/5/16 at 6:36 pm to TT9
I am coming around on him, though I still think he needs to find a way to land a stud or two. This gigantic freshman class is much better than I anticipated. No one on the roster who is totally outclassed at this level like you saw with Martin's lower tier guys and Tyndall's lone freshman class.
No sure fire NBA guys either though which I think he needs.
I would be shocked if they aren't in the tournament by next season (2017-18) with what I've seen from the freshmen and sophomores, but they need to land some elite guys to take the real next step.
No sure fire NBA guys either though which I think he needs.
I would be shocked if they aren't in the tournament by next season (2017-18) with what I've seen from the freshmen and sophomores, but they need to land some elite guys to take the real next step.
Posted on 12/5/16 at 6:42 pm to volfan30
quote:agree with all of this.
I would be shocked if they aren't in the tournament by next season (2017-18) with what I've seen from the freshmen and sophomores, but they need to land some elite guys to take the real next step.
Posted on 12/5/16 at 7:09 pm to volfan30
Top 50
Posted on 12/5/16 at 7:13 pm to Pettifogger
quote:
Honestly, what am I supposed to take away from this? I'm not convinced AU is better than those teams, but I'm certainly not convinced that 4-3 Alabama with no good wins is 27 spots ahead of us.
I don't understand it either. Auburn is 21 in RPI, for what it is worth. makes more sense than KenPom right now.
Posted on 12/5/16 at 8:31 pm to volfan30
Vandy has a bad loss, is 4-4, and they are 70 while AU has a good win, is 6-1 and is 105? His formula is crap.
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