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Just playing devil's advocate
Posted on 11/22/16 at 12:13 pm
Posted on 11/22/16 at 12:13 pm
I know Bama is good. And they are obviously the #1 team. But I can't help but also notice the rest of the SEC looks pretty bad relative to the past few seasons.
*Auburn lost to Clemson
*LSU lost to Wisconsin
*Ole Miss lost to Florida State
*Arkansas- the same Hog team that beat up on the SEC East Champs nearly lost to Louisiana Tech... had to go to Overtime against TCU
*Tennessee also beat the SEC East Champ... yet it took overtime for them to beat App State and they struggled against Ohio.
*Mississippi State found a way to beat two bowl teams from the SEC- Texas A&M and South Carolina- yet they lost to South Alabama and BYU... and struggled with FCS Samford.
*Kentucky got to .500 in SEC play and is bowl eligible .... yet they lost by double-digits to Southern Miss
*Vanderbilt's four SEC losses have come by an average of just 6.5 points, and all have been by single digits. Yet they lost to Georgia Tech by 31.
Does all this put together mean that the SEC is just extremely down this year? And if the SEC is extremely down, does that mean Alabama is not as far out in front as the #1 team as it seems?
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The other issue is the Alabama offense. I can't help but shake the fact that Alabama and LSU were tied 0-0 in the 4th quarter. Take a look at the only Top 40 defenses (S&P+ Defense rankings) Alabama has faced this season:
#4 LSU
#15 USC
#27 Texas A&M
#35 Western Kentucky
If Western Kentucky is the 4th best defense your team has faced in a season, you may not have been tested enough. And let's face it, the USC team of September did not have a Top 15 defense. They started 1-3. At the end of September, they ranked #68 in Total Defense per Game. Now they moved up to #28 on the season... and are #15 in the S&P+ Defense rankings. So you can essentially throw that game out since Alabama did not catch them nearly at their best.
So based on how good the defenses were at the time of the game, Bama has only faced two solid defenses this season: LSU and Texas A&M.
Bama struggled mightily against LSU... amassing just 323 yards on 70 plays. Against Texas A&M, Bama had better success moving the ball, but nearly half of their offensive yards were in the first quarter. Once Texas A&M made adjustments, Bama did not move the ball as easily from the 2nd quarter on.
Bama's toughest defensive tests obviously lie ahead:
*Auburn's defense ranks #10 according to S&P+
*Florida's defense ranks #5 according to S&P+
As for possible playoff opponents:
*Michigan's defense ranks #1 according to S&P+
*Wisconsin's defense ranks #3 according to S&P+
*Clemson's defense ranks #6 according to S&P+
*Ohio State's defense ranks #7 according to S&P+
*Washingto's defense ranks #11 according to S&P+
Bama still likely has four games against teams with defenses of the same calibur as LSU's. But unlike LSU, most of these other teams have an offense to go along with their top tier defense.
Ohio State (#3), Michigan (#4), Auburn (#21), and Clemson (#23) all have offenses ranked in the Top 25 according to S&P+.
While Bama should be #1 until proven otherwise, I think there is a chance 2014 happens all over again and Bama goes down unexpectedly in the playoff. I think this team has some question marks on offense that hardly anyone is discussing.
*Auburn lost to Clemson
*LSU lost to Wisconsin
*Ole Miss lost to Florida State
*Arkansas- the same Hog team that beat up on the SEC East Champs nearly lost to Louisiana Tech... had to go to Overtime against TCU
*Tennessee also beat the SEC East Champ... yet it took overtime for them to beat App State and they struggled against Ohio.
*Mississippi State found a way to beat two bowl teams from the SEC- Texas A&M and South Carolina- yet they lost to South Alabama and BYU... and struggled with FCS Samford.
*Kentucky got to .500 in SEC play and is bowl eligible .... yet they lost by double-digits to Southern Miss
*Vanderbilt's four SEC losses have come by an average of just 6.5 points, and all have been by single digits. Yet they lost to Georgia Tech by 31.
Does all this put together mean that the SEC is just extremely down this year? And if the SEC is extremely down, does that mean Alabama is not as far out in front as the #1 team as it seems?
---------
The other issue is the Alabama offense. I can't help but shake the fact that Alabama and LSU were tied 0-0 in the 4th quarter. Take a look at the only Top 40 defenses (S&P+ Defense rankings) Alabama has faced this season:
#4 LSU
#15 USC
#27 Texas A&M
#35 Western Kentucky
If Western Kentucky is the 4th best defense your team has faced in a season, you may not have been tested enough. And let's face it, the USC team of September did not have a Top 15 defense. They started 1-3. At the end of September, they ranked #68 in Total Defense per Game. Now they moved up to #28 on the season... and are #15 in the S&P+ Defense rankings. So you can essentially throw that game out since Alabama did not catch them nearly at their best.
So based on how good the defenses were at the time of the game, Bama has only faced two solid defenses this season: LSU and Texas A&M.
Bama struggled mightily against LSU... amassing just 323 yards on 70 plays. Against Texas A&M, Bama had better success moving the ball, but nearly half of their offensive yards were in the first quarter. Once Texas A&M made adjustments, Bama did not move the ball as easily from the 2nd quarter on.
Bama's toughest defensive tests obviously lie ahead:
*Auburn's defense ranks #10 according to S&P+
*Florida's defense ranks #5 according to S&P+
As for possible playoff opponents:
*Michigan's defense ranks #1 according to S&P+
*Wisconsin's defense ranks #3 according to S&P+
*Clemson's defense ranks #6 according to S&P+
*Ohio State's defense ranks #7 according to S&P+
*Washingto's defense ranks #11 according to S&P+
Bama still likely has four games against teams with defenses of the same calibur as LSU's. But unlike LSU, most of these other teams have an offense to go along with their top tier defense.
Ohio State (#3), Michigan (#4), Auburn (#21), and Clemson (#23) all have offenses ranked in the Top 25 according to S&P+.
While Bama should be #1 until proven otherwise, I think there is a chance 2014 happens all over again and Bama goes down unexpectedly in the playoff. I think this team has some question marks on offense that hardly anyone is discussing.
12
Posted on 11/22/16 at 12:15 pm to BHMKyle
Too long. Did not read
Posted on 11/22/16 at 12:16 pm to BHMKyle
You're as good at this as you are in forecasting elections.
When is Cruz going to start naming his cabinet?
When is Cruz going to start naming his cabinet?
Posted on 11/22/16 at 12:16 pm to BHMKyle
I don't think any logical bama fan thinks the playoffs are a given. Hell, we've lost to Ohio State just 2 years ago.
But don't try and be a debbie downer. Bama is good. So are the other teams but they're all beatable and have their weaknesses as well.
But don't try and be a debbie downer. Bama is good. So are the other teams but they're all beatable and have their weaknesses as well.
Posted on 11/22/16 at 12:18 pm to BHMKyle
Alabama could certainly lose in the playoffs anyone saying they couldn't is wrong. 2014 was only so unexpected because OSU was on their third string QB - which may have actually hurt in the long run due to lack of film, but i digress.
Having said that, the current defense is much stronger than the 2014 defense. Offense is younger though, but many different weapons available. I certainly wouldn't pick against Bama, but also wouldn't be surprised if another team wins it all this year.
Having said that, the current defense is much stronger than the 2014 defense. Offense is younger though, but many different weapons available. I certainly wouldn't pick against Bama, but also wouldn't be surprised if another team wins it all this year.
Posted on 11/22/16 at 12:19 pm to BHMKyle
I feel like you could you could do this for every conference, every year.
Posted on 11/22/16 at 12:19 pm to BHMKyle
Our offense is definitely suspect and will face challenges ahead.
However, if you want to use S&P+ to talk about the offensives we are about to play against, then you have to also admit that S&P+ has Alabama's offense ranked as a Top 10 unit. So, if we buy it in one case, we have to buy it in Alabama's case too.
The flip side that our defense is legitimately as good as it has ever been, and there are no teams left on the schedule any better suited to exploit us than Ole Miss at full strength. Not even close, honestly, other than Clemson if they put it together.
- Auburn's offense is 100% reliant on running up the middle with a power back. And, they are banged up and will probably start Jeremy Johnson at QB, and their very good and very important FB is hurt and probably not playing.
- Florida is self explanatory.
- Ohio State is an average passing team and has a suspect offensive line.
- Michigan is a pro-style offense without a great QB and with average to above average running backs and a suspect offensive line.
- Clemson still has the potential to be what they were last year, but they've had offensive line problems and Watson has been a turnover machine.
- Washington couldn't block USC passing or running, so I very seriously doubt their abilities to block Alabama.
- Penn State and Wisconsin won't break 100 yards.
So - the playoff has a chance to have a very old school, low scoring feel to it. Clemson, just like last year, is still the worst matchup for us IF they play their best game. They have the most balanced offense and the best passing game to go along with a pretty solid defense.
However, if you want to use S&P+ to talk about the offensives we are about to play against, then you have to also admit that S&P+ has Alabama's offense ranked as a Top 10 unit. So, if we buy it in one case, we have to buy it in Alabama's case too.
The flip side that our defense is legitimately as good as it has ever been, and there are no teams left on the schedule any better suited to exploit us than Ole Miss at full strength. Not even close, honestly, other than Clemson if they put it together.
- Auburn's offense is 100% reliant on running up the middle with a power back. And, they are banged up and will probably start Jeremy Johnson at QB, and their very good and very important FB is hurt and probably not playing.
- Florida is self explanatory.
- Ohio State is an average passing team and has a suspect offensive line.
- Michigan is a pro-style offense without a great QB and with average to above average running backs and a suspect offensive line.
- Clemson still has the potential to be what they were last year, but they've had offensive line problems and Watson has been a turnover machine.
- Washington couldn't block USC passing or running, so I very seriously doubt their abilities to block Alabama.
- Penn State and Wisconsin won't break 100 yards.
So - the playoff has a chance to have a very old school, low scoring feel to it. Clemson, just like last year, is still the worst matchup for us IF they play their best game. They have the most balanced offense and the best passing game to go along with a pretty solid defense.
This post was edited on 11/22/16 at 12:24 pm
Posted on 11/22/16 at 12:20 pm to BHMKyle
valid points. great read. we will see
Posted on 11/22/16 at 12:20 pm to Triple Daves
try playing football ...
Posted on 11/22/16 at 12:23 pm to BHMKyle
Is there a chance? Definitely.
If Ohio State, Clemson, OU, and possibly some other schools played their best game, then they could certainly beat Bama.
Do I think Alabama is better than those teams? Yes, but that doesn't always equal a win.
If Ohio State, Clemson, OU, and possibly some other schools played their best game, then they could certainly beat Bama.
Do I think Alabama is better than those teams? Yes, but that doesn't always equal a win.
Posted on 11/22/16 at 12:25 pm to BHMKyle
Oh look. Another BHMKyle thread about Alabama. 
Posted on 11/22/16 at 12:25 pm to BHMKyle
Bama is good. The rest of the sec is mediocre or bad. Although some how, some way, even when we think the sec is down it still performs well in bowls.
Posted on 11/22/16 at 12:29 pm to jer2913
One of my favorites:
"You will seek me and find me, when you seek me with all your heart."
"You will seek me and find me, when you seek me with all your heart."
Posted on 11/22/16 at 12:32 pm to Kraven Moorehed
quote:
I feel like you could you could do this for every conference, every year.
Possibly. But you normally *CAN'T* do this for the SEC in most years. You certainly can this year.
The BIG 10's bottom feeders are pretty bad... but the teams at the top have been very impressive against OOC competition. Using current rankings...
Ohio State won at #7 Oklahoma by 21 points.
Michigan beat #9 Colorado by 17 points.
Wisconsin beat #25 LSU by by 2 points.
Nebraska beat Wyoming (Receiving Votes) by 35 points.
The only OOC loss by the 5 ranked BIG 10 teams right now was Penn State's loss to Pittsburgh. The same Pitt team that just beat Clemson.
The BIG 10 has been by far the most impressive league so far this season in terms of wins against quality OOC opponents... mostly by large margins.
Posted on 11/22/16 at 12:33 pm to BHMKyle
So going by S&B+ rankings, Michigan has faced offenses that rank:
Hawaii (90)
UCF (117)
Colorado (31)
Penn State (37)
Wisconsin (61)
Rutgers (127)
Illinois (119)
Michigan State (72)
Iowa (71)
Indiana (60)
Meanwhile, after the Iron Bowl, Alabama will have played 8 offenses that rank in the top 40.
Hawaii (90)
UCF (117)
Colorado (31)
Penn State (37)
Wisconsin (61)
Rutgers (127)
Illinois (119)
Michigan State (72)
Iowa (71)
Indiana (60)
Meanwhile, after the Iron Bowl, Alabama will have played 8 offenses that rank in the top 40.
Posted on 11/22/16 at 12:35 pm to BHMKyle
The only teams in America who rank in the Top 10 in both offense and defense per S&P
Alabama : #2 defense, #9 offense
Clemson : #6 defense, #10 offense
Others in playoff contention :
Michigan : #1 defense, #25 offense
Ohio State : #7 defense, #14 offense
Washington : #11 defense, #6 offense
Wisconsin : #3 defense, #61 offense
Penn State : #13 defense, #37 offense
Oklahoma : #68 defense, #1 offense
Oklahoma St : #74 defense, #11 offense
Alabama : #2 defense, #9 offense
Clemson : #6 defense, #10 offense
Others in playoff contention :
Michigan : #1 defense, #25 offense
Ohio State : #7 defense, #14 offense
Washington : #11 defense, #6 offense
Wisconsin : #3 defense, #61 offense
Penn State : #13 defense, #37 offense
Oklahoma : #68 defense, #1 offense
Oklahoma St : #74 defense, #11 offense
This post was edited on 11/22/16 at 12:37 pm
Posted on 11/22/16 at 12:35 pm to Gary Busey
quote:
So going by S&B+ rankings, Michigan has faced offenses that rank:
Hawaii (90)
UCF (117)
Colorado (31)
Penn State (37)
Wisconsin (61)
Rutgers (127)
Illinois (119)
Michigan State (72)
Iowa (71)
Indiana (60)
Meanwhile, after the Iron Bowl, Alabama will have played 8 offenses that rank in the top 40.
This doesn't fit his narrative though. Prepare to be bombarded with meaningless drivel with the outcome being Alabama is overrated.
It's his thing for whatever reason.
Posted on 11/22/16 at 12:36 pm to Gary Busey
quote:
Meanwhile, after the Iron Bowl, Alabama will have played 8 offenses that rank in the top 40.
Yea - our defense is really fvckin good. It will not be run on and it will take an NFL arm with NFL WRs to throw on it. The only team that has that is Clemson, and they will give us problems if they play their best because at his best Watson is indefensible.
Posted on 11/22/16 at 12:39 pm to TideSaint
quote:
This doesn't fit his narrative though. Prepare to be bombarded with meaningless drivel with the outcome being Alabama is overrated.
No. Michigan is overrated. They are a solid, Top 10 type of team when healthy. But this Michigan in the playoff wouldn't be all that different than the other team from Michigan's performance in the playoff last season.... especially now with a hurt QB.
Sorry I didn't go along how you wanted me to. I call it like it is... which is why you seem to have a problem with my posts.
Posted on 11/22/16 at 12:40 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
Wisconsin beat #25 LSU by by 2 points.
You just said LSU wasn't any good above, so how they can be a good win for Wisconsin?
quote:
Nebraska beat Wyoming (Receiving Votes) by 35 points.
Actually, Wyoming received 1 vote, not multiples
Alabama beat Southern Cal (#12) by 46 pts
Tennessee beat Virginia Tech (receiving votes)
Georgia beat North Carolina (receiving votes)
I don't think the SEC is very good this year but I also don't think the B1G has shown much out of conference either. The B1G has 1 more elite team than the SEC does. That's basically the difference. Penn State and Wisconsin are roughly equal to LSU/Florida/Auburn (as evident by Wisconsin's stand still game with LSU earlier this year). Nebraska stinks.
This post was edited on 11/22/16 at 12:41 pm
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