re: Is it reasonable to expect Tennessee football to turn around?

Ole baw was not pictured because he was on the freshmen team. Or so I suspect.

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Well my line of demarcation is 1967

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They were the 2nd best team in the SEC in the 1990s, won 2 SEC Titles and 1 National Title.

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They were without a doubt the 2nd best team in the SEC in the '90s... however, THAT was the anomaly.... almost as much as where they stand now is on the other end.

Here is where they rank in the SEC according to the AP by decade (national ranking in parentheses):

1950s
1. Ole Miss (#5)
2. Tennessee (#9)
3. Auburn (#13)

1960s
1. Alabama (#1)
2. Ole Miss (#7)
3. LSU (#8)
4. Tennessee (#15)

1970s
1. Alabama (#2)
2. Auburn (#13)
3. Tennessee (#15)

1980s
1. Auburn (#8)
2. Georgia (#9)
3. Alabama (#11)
4. LSU (#18)
5. Florida (#22)
6. Tennessee (#25)

1990s
1. Florida (#2)
2. Tennessee (#4)
3. Alabama (#7)

2000s
1. Florida (#5)
2. LSU (#6)
3. Georgia (#7)
4. Auburn (#13)
5. Alabama (#16)
6. Tennessee (#20)

2010s
1. Alabama (#1)
2. LSU (#9)
3. S. Carolina (#13)
4. Auburn (#16)
5. Georgia (#19)
6. Missouri (#21)
7. Texas A&M (#22)
8. Arkansas (#23)
9. Florida (#26)
10. Mississippi State (#29)
11. Ole Miss (#30)
12. Tennessee (#47)

So going back to the 1950s, Tennessee's standing (according to the AP) in each decade was #2, #4, #3, #6, #2, #6, and #12.

The four most recent decades they were #6, #2, #6, and #12..... at least in the current generation, the 1990s were just as much of an anomaly on the high end as their current standing this decade is on the low end.

My point is Tennessee football shouldn't be as bad as its been the last 10 years... however, expecting them to ever be a "Top 10" and maybe even a "Top 15" program is no longer rational. Where they are currently (#22 finish two years in a row) might constitute the new high bar for Vol football.

With the resources we have, we're 1 great hire away from 90s type run, and then some.

Sabans, Meyers and Spurriers don't come around every day tho.

Got to this thread late (ten pages as of now).

But even though I can't be bothered to read through this thread now, you guys need my opinion badly.

Anyway, yes it can turn around. Look for most of the past few decades Tennessee wasn't putting out a lot of highly recruited talent, not compared to the other states in the SEC.

But population growth, and I guess the reverse Great Migration, that has changed. Maybe it isn't Georgia or even Louisiana, but it is a big state and they are producing 4 and 5 stars in the Murfreesboro's and Nashville's instead of just from Memphis now (and some other schools are actually better situated to recruit Memphis than UT is).

Fulmer's formula was to recruit what he could get, then get a ton of guys from Atlanta, NC, the occasional superstar from SC (Haynesworth) or California. They had to recruit nationally then. And it isn't much remarked, but I think Richt being at Georgia keeping more of the big timers from that state that Fulmer used to poach had more to do with Tennessee's decline than anything else.

Anyway, they still recruit nationally with some success (though not like the other big time national recruiting schools).

But there are enough players coming out of Tennessee now that they can live with getting less guys out of Atlanta or not being the same pull Stanford is to a five star OL from Colorado is and make something very good.

How good? Depends on whether they up the national recruiting game, or Tennessee keeps the talent increase going.

Or Georgia hires another Donnan.

My take anyway.

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Tennessee is in the 3rd tier of the Big 6 since 1970

1st - Alabama
2nd - Florida/LSU
3rd - Georgia/Tennessee/Auburn

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I disagree. I think it should look like this:

1st- Alabama
2nd- Florida/LSU/Auburn/Georgia
3rd- Tennessee

Since 1970, here is how the Big 6 ranks in various categories:

SEC Championships
1. Alabama- 17
2. Florida- 8
3. Auburn- 7
3. LSU- 7
5. Georgia- 6
6. Tennessee- 5

Tennessee has the fewest SEC Titles of any of the Big 6 members.

National Titles:
1. Alabama- 8
2. Florida- 3
3. LSU- 2
4. Auburn- 1
4. Georgia- 1
4. Tennessee- 1

AP Poll Standing
1. Alabama (#3)
2. Florida (#11)
3. Auburn (#13)
4. Georgia (#14)
5. LSU (#15)
6. Tennessee (#16)

SEC Winning Percentage
1. Alabama- .740
2. Florida- .678
3. Georgia- .655
4. Tennessee .596
5. Auburn- .593
6. LSU- .587

Here's how I see it:
*Alabama is on a different level, obviously.
*Florida is a clear #2... maybe in need of their own tier... but probably not quite enough for that. Regardless, a clear #2
*I don't think LSU belongs on a separate tier, ahead of Auburn or Georgia... especially Auburn.

Auburn and LSU have the same number of SEC Titles since 1970, and LSU has just one more than Georgia.
LSU has the worst SEC record of the Big 6 since 1970
Auburn and Georgia both have faired better in the AP Poll than LSU since 1970.

The only thing going for LSU over Auburn and Georgia is their extra National Titles (2 instead of 1). But considering their is little to no separation for LSU in those other categories, I don't think that extra title warrants them being in an entire extra tier ahead of Auburn or Georgia, especially Auburn.

I mean while it obviously still counts as a title, its also hard to forget that LSU is the only 2-loss champ during the entire 47-year period. I think Auburn has a decent argument that they are actually better than LSU since 1970. I'd give the edge to LSU, but ever so slightly.

So this is how I'd rank them:

Tier 1- Alabama
Tier 2a- Florida
Tier 2b- LSU/Auburn/Georgia
Tier 3- Tennessee

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With the resources we have, we're 1 great hire away from 90s type run, and then some.

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The Butch Jones factor is what is holding UT back. I guess with such bad luck in recent history to many UT fans are content with Butch as long as he can get 8 wins and a bowl game.

If you go back just 3 years to the beginning of integration the numbers change.

From 1967- 50 years
Win %.678
SEC Titles= 7

Also, if UGA had played Bama every year for the past 50 years, I'd be willing to bet those numbers would look much different. Same with Florida

1 Oklahoma 0.74130 605 203 25 833
2 Tennessee 0.71138 580 227 28 835
3 Ohio State 0.74555 575 189 22 786
4 Texas 0.69701 573 244 18 835
5t Nebraska 0.68833 565 252 14 831
5t Penn State 0.71805 565 217 16 798
7 Michigan 0.71914 562 214 18 794
8 Alabama 0.70257 561 230 26 817
9 Notre Dame 0.70632 559 226 22 807
10 Georgia 0.66272

This is most wins from 1933(Beginning of SEC) to 2007(before our worst decade ever. As you can see, we've been much more than slightly above average. I think you could consider this a powerhouse. All that will playing another powerhouse every single year(Bama)

Tennessee had some stretches where they were not national players, I'm not sure a random Top 15 year means a whole lot.

Alabama went 10-2 and finished #8 in 2005. That was surrounded by 4-9, 6-6, 6-7 and 7-6. So, we had 1 good year and everything else around it was trash. We had an entire decade of miserable/mediocre seasons and a random good year (1999, 2002, 2005). So, technically, we didn't have a whole stretch without being in the Top 15. However, we had incredibly low lows outside of those years.

These things are all fluid. Butch has to be fired in the next few years, and if Tennessee hires a really good football coach they can be a Top 15 program. If they don't, they won't be. But the idea that they "cant" but like that is silly, IMHO.