re: How many ints will Fla. have?

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How many ints will Fla. have?

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2, 1 pick-6.

Burrow throws for 4 TDs, Tigers run in another, LSU over UF 35 - 31.

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I say 4, two return for pick 6's.
This will be the first real defense Burrows has seen.

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I don't know if they'll get 4, but they are far and away the best pass defense he will have seen.

Texas is pretty good at ballhawking as well, but their average of INT & PBU to attempt isn't in the same area as Florida (Florida picks off or breaks up 20.57%, or 1 out of every 5 passes. Texas breaks up 14.87%, or about 1 in 7).

Interestingly enough, the team with the best past eff defense is Missouri. They've got the same ratio as Florida in INT+PBU to Attempt, and they've run 4 back for TDs.

LSU has done a good job of breaking up passes (18.82%) but are lower in pass eff defense than several schools who don't break up as many passes (like Alabama). LSU gives up an extra half yard per attempt, but also played Texas. So there's a bit of give there as well.

Looking at LSU's game logs, they held Georgia Southern and Utah State to really good averages, but Vandy and Texas to about the mid point (Texas had more yards per att vs Rice and Okie State, fewer against La Tech and West Virginia, for reference).

Based on their numbers alone (not reviewing tape), it appears the following:

Florida tightens up in the red zone (lowest red zone conversion percentage by a country mile) and is opportunistic while keeping WRs in front of their guys.

LSU DBs appear more on the "commit or burnt" style. They either pick you off, break up the pass, or give up a good bit of yards. I would GUESS (without thinking back on the games) that LSU probably plays a lot of straight up man coverage, while Florida does a lot of mixed coverages and zone/man variations.

That's just a guess though.

Florida will either need to be creative on offense to get their WRs open, or focus on running the ball where Vandy had limited success. If I were Florida, I'd stick to a short passing game and not try to beat LSU's corners deep.

LSU should probably stick with what has worked so far, but if Florida shows the ability to counter then Burrow should likely focus on changing tempo. Florida's too strong to just run the ball right at them, but LSU has a lot of speed (especially at WR), so attacking the perimeter will likely be the way to go.

One or two.

The productive Tiger offense provides opponents with an unending fountain of opportunities to flaunt their latest turnover swag; Burrow has thrown 3 picks so far a little bit less than one per game.

With all the chances they'll get, a talented DB-corps like what the Gators have _should_ be able to a find at least pick as they grab 2 pair per game.

These numbers tell me if this game where played an infinite number of times in parallel Burrow will throw:
1 ~ 40%,
2 ~ 32%,
0 ~ 13%,
3 ~ 5%,

multiple pick outcomes becoming rapidly improbable after 3, in my really, really crude stat model (I just pulled it from arse).

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This will be the first real offense Florida has seen.

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FIFY

A well-worded and quality post. Nice.

I will add that Burrow has an array of Jedi mind tricks that young padawan Nix (and the rest of the qbs that UF has seen this year) has yet to master.

His pre and post snap reads are deadly, and he can go thru progressions like a boss, looking off dbs and clearing out lanes...as long as our OL holds its own. I hope to see less of the check w me stuff we saw vs. Utah State and go tempo, trusting Burrow's ability to recognize ds and audible at the line.

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as long as our OL holds its own.

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That may end up being the REAL match-up this weekend. Florida is 3rd in sacks and 5th in sacks per game. They are very good at dialing up pressure. It is something that I hope we (Alabama) get better at soon. LSU is a "not bad" 52nd in sacks allowed per game, but because cfbstats.com doesn't list QB hurries, I don't know if that is because of Burrow scrambling to avoid some sacks and the OL doing a bad job, or the OL doing an adequate job. I imagine somewhere between those two.

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How many ints will Fla. have?

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I say 4, two return for pick 6's.

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I agree, i think Trask gets rattled pretty early after his first pick 6. Look for him to throw a pick a quarter.

How unbecoming of an inbred gump, dickriding a gator.

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I would GUESS (without thinking back on the games) that LSU probably plays a lot of straight up man coverage

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The problem has come this year on trying to implement more zone coverage. When LSU plays man, they get more PBUs, opponents are getting more completions against the zone.

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LSU should probably stick with what has worked so far

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This is the problem. LSU's man coverage works against less talented teams, but comes up short against equal or more talented teams. Luckily, LSU only has a couple of teams on their schedule with equal or better talent.

If you can't beat them with personnel, you have to out-scheme them. If LSU resorts to man coverage because that's what they're best at, it won't work against Alabama - and perhaps even Florida.

Burrows has seen.....english much gump?