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How I feel about the CFP playoff contenders.......
Posted on 11/24/25 at 6:16 am
Posted on 11/24/25 at 6:16 am
Tier 1: There is a gap between 1 and the pair of 2 and 3. I debated giving Ohio State their on tier, but decided against it the more I looked into their schedule. It leaves enough room for doubt.
1. Ohio State:
The good- Has dominated their schedule with a good offense and awesome defense statistically.
The bad- Schedule sucks and they've only played one offense that looks above average from a statistical standpoint.
Verdict: They're still kings until knocked off. Roster is filled with blue chips and depth. Will be a tough test, though not known if they are actually the behemoth some think.
2. A&M
The good- Of the SEC teams, have controlled games the best. Have a top ten win at Notre Dame.
The bad- Of the SEC CFP true hopefuls, they have played by far the weakest schedule. Did not look great in their last real football game.
Verdict: You can only play who you are scheduled to play. Several on A&M's schedule were supposed to be good teams ended up being frauds. They've been arguably the most consistent in all three phases of football over the whole season.
3. Georgia:
The good- Young team that seems to be playing its best football on offense and defense right now. Very tested in close games and coming from behind in crunch time.
The bad- The last two games were against two Olines that have underperformed all year. Could the appearance of a sudden pass rush out of the clear blue be a mirage? Have struggled to get off the field against good offenses. Continually start slow in almost every game.
Verdict: Team seems to be improving when it's needed most. A juggernaut? By no means, but this year you may not have to be.
Tier 2.
4. Indiana
The good- Undefeated. Controlled their games well. Top ten win.
The bad- The roster talent is weak. The schedule is weak.
Verdict: We just haven't seen a team with this kind of roster talent out of high school do well in the playoff. Even if they pull off an upset win like TCU vs. Michigan, reality comes fast and hard at some point.
5. Ole Miss
The good- Top ten win on the road. Offense is very explosive at times.
The bad- Defense is not what it was a year ago and can be exploited.
Verdict- Hard to win shootouts against good teams over and over again.
6. Oregon
The good- Show up and play well against teams they should beat.
The bad- Lose almost every top five type matchup they play.
Verdict- Hard to pick a team to win the title that has a poor resume of winning huge games.
7a. Oklahoma
The good- Defense is talented and can make you one dimensional. Takes some risks, but often gets the reward of game changing plays in their favor while doing so.
The bad- Offense is average at best and has to rely on the defense to put them in good spots to score.
Verdict: Haven't seen a team with this poor of an offense win a title in a long, long time.
7b. Alabama
The good- Defense is improving and looks like a strength. Offense is efficient. Best win of the top ten teams.
The bad- Can't run the football. Offense is pass first, but not very explosive. Coach doesn't seem to get them up to play weaker opponents. Worst loss by far of the top ten teams.
Verdict- It is hard to win the title if you can't run. Last team to win it all with a yards per carry average as bad as Bama's was FSU in 1999. A much more explosive passing offense than Bama has. Last team to average less rushing yards per game than Bama and win the title? None, at least as far back as 1936.
9. Notre Dame
The good- After an 0-2 start, have pretty much walloped everyone, including Arkansas. Yes, I know Arkansas's record. But Arkansas wasn't run out of town by anyone in the SEC until Texas did it last week and they still didn't do it as impressively as Notre Dame did. Two losses were to quality teams.
The bad- Weak schedule. Only win of real note was USC who now has two other losses.
Verdict- Have a lot of blue chip recruits on their roster and at least look the part after the rough start. I rank them here because the resume just doesn't look as good as the team's above them. Everyone dumped on them last year and they went to the championship game and gave Ohio State about as good of a game as anyone else did in the playoff.
10. Texas Tech
Good: One loss to a decent team I guess. Some highly ranked wins, though none in the top ten.
Bad: Weak conference and hard to really know how good its best wins are.
Verdict: I don't know. Indy at least beat Oregon, and I know Oregon has some talent. Tech paid for some portal kids with their oil money, but On3 and 247 still says their roster is middle of the pack. Would think they'll get exposed along the way.
Tier 3:
11. Vandy
The good: Done a great job taking care of weaker opponents and at sometimes have looked downright dominant against them.
The bad: It's kind of telling that their two losses have come against teams that have top 5 roster talent. Texas almost screwed up and lost the game, but Texas dominated them for three quarters and Texas hasn't been able to do that to almost anyone else they've played.
The verdict: Like Texas Tech and Indy, think they will run into a wall at some point. Probably not getting into the CFP anyway. What's their best win at this point? Mizzou?
12. Miami
The good: Talented roster. Good top ten win.
The bad: Up and down. Team gets very up and down play from QB and can't seem to overcome his bad games. Two mediocre losses.
Verdict: Could probably beat almost everyone above them. Could probably lose to ten or more below them.
Two that will be in that should not be:
The Group of Five team: Likely Tulane
The ACC champ: Virgina, SMU or Pitt
Also:
Anyone not named Texas Tech from the Big 12: Utah, BYU
If these teams don't get knocked out immediately and likely before the start of the third quarter in the first round, it's because they played a team that was overrated and lacked the talent to truly expose them: Texas Tech, Indiana, etc. Or a team that's flawed on one side of the football and has shown a propensity to play down to their opponent's level and cough up a game like this: Alabama, Ole Miss (2024 version, but same coach).
1. Ohio State:
The good- Has dominated their schedule with a good offense and awesome defense statistically.
The bad- Schedule sucks and they've only played one offense that looks above average from a statistical standpoint.
Verdict: They're still kings until knocked off. Roster is filled with blue chips and depth. Will be a tough test, though not known if they are actually the behemoth some think.
2. A&M
The good- Of the SEC teams, have controlled games the best. Have a top ten win at Notre Dame.
The bad- Of the SEC CFP true hopefuls, they have played by far the weakest schedule. Did not look great in their last real football game.
Verdict: You can only play who you are scheduled to play. Several on A&M's schedule were supposed to be good teams ended up being frauds. They've been arguably the most consistent in all three phases of football over the whole season.
3. Georgia:
The good- Young team that seems to be playing its best football on offense and defense right now. Very tested in close games and coming from behind in crunch time.
The bad- The last two games were against two Olines that have underperformed all year. Could the appearance of a sudden pass rush out of the clear blue be a mirage? Have struggled to get off the field against good offenses. Continually start slow in almost every game.
Verdict: Team seems to be improving when it's needed most. A juggernaut? By no means, but this year you may not have to be.
Tier 2.
4. Indiana
The good- Undefeated. Controlled their games well. Top ten win.
The bad- The roster talent is weak. The schedule is weak.
Verdict: We just haven't seen a team with this kind of roster talent out of high school do well in the playoff. Even if they pull off an upset win like TCU vs. Michigan, reality comes fast and hard at some point.
5. Ole Miss
The good- Top ten win on the road. Offense is very explosive at times.
The bad- Defense is not what it was a year ago and can be exploited.
Verdict- Hard to win shootouts against good teams over and over again.
6. Oregon
The good- Show up and play well against teams they should beat.
The bad- Lose almost every top five type matchup they play.
Verdict- Hard to pick a team to win the title that has a poor resume of winning huge games.
7a. Oklahoma
The good- Defense is talented and can make you one dimensional. Takes some risks, but often gets the reward of game changing plays in their favor while doing so.
The bad- Offense is average at best and has to rely on the defense to put them in good spots to score.
Verdict: Haven't seen a team with this poor of an offense win a title in a long, long time.
7b. Alabama
The good- Defense is improving and looks like a strength. Offense is efficient. Best win of the top ten teams.
The bad- Can't run the football. Offense is pass first, but not very explosive. Coach doesn't seem to get them up to play weaker opponents. Worst loss by far of the top ten teams.
Verdict- It is hard to win the title if you can't run. Last team to win it all with a yards per carry average as bad as Bama's was FSU in 1999. A much more explosive passing offense than Bama has. Last team to average less rushing yards per game than Bama and win the title? None, at least as far back as 1936.
9. Notre Dame
The good- After an 0-2 start, have pretty much walloped everyone, including Arkansas. Yes, I know Arkansas's record. But Arkansas wasn't run out of town by anyone in the SEC until Texas did it last week and they still didn't do it as impressively as Notre Dame did. Two losses were to quality teams.
The bad- Weak schedule. Only win of real note was USC who now has two other losses.
Verdict- Have a lot of blue chip recruits on their roster and at least look the part after the rough start. I rank them here because the resume just doesn't look as good as the team's above them. Everyone dumped on them last year and they went to the championship game and gave Ohio State about as good of a game as anyone else did in the playoff.
10. Texas Tech
Good: One loss to a decent team I guess. Some highly ranked wins, though none in the top ten.
Bad: Weak conference and hard to really know how good its best wins are.
Verdict: I don't know. Indy at least beat Oregon, and I know Oregon has some talent. Tech paid for some portal kids with their oil money, but On3 and 247 still says their roster is middle of the pack. Would think they'll get exposed along the way.
Tier 3:
11. Vandy
The good: Done a great job taking care of weaker opponents and at sometimes have looked downright dominant against them.
The bad: It's kind of telling that their two losses have come against teams that have top 5 roster talent. Texas almost screwed up and lost the game, but Texas dominated them for three quarters and Texas hasn't been able to do that to almost anyone else they've played.
The verdict: Like Texas Tech and Indy, think they will run into a wall at some point. Probably not getting into the CFP anyway. What's their best win at this point? Mizzou?
12. Miami
The good: Talented roster. Good top ten win.
The bad: Up and down. Team gets very up and down play from QB and can't seem to overcome his bad games. Two mediocre losses.
Verdict: Could probably beat almost everyone above them. Could probably lose to ten or more below them.
Two that will be in that should not be:
The Group of Five team: Likely Tulane
The ACC champ: Virgina, SMU or Pitt
Also:
Anyone not named Texas Tech from the Big 12: Utah, BYU
If these teams don't get knocked out immediately and likely before the start of the third quarter in the first round, it's because they played a team that was overrated and lacked the talent to truly expose them: Texas Tech, Indiana, etc. Or a team that's flawed on one side of the football and has shown a propensity to play down to their opponent's level and cough up a game like this: Alabama, Ole Miss (2024 version, but same coach).
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Posted on 11/24/25 at 6:19 am to koreandawg
Gonna take me a whole cup of coffee to read all that
Posted on 11/24/25 at 6:21 am to Old Sarge
Don't read it. Go back to sleep.
Posted on 11/24/25 at 6:22 am to koreandawg
You need a woman.
Posted on 11/24/25 at 6:25 am to Uga Alum
quote:
You need a woman.
As in marriage or a committed relationship? No thanks. The one I had will take me at least a decade to reconsider. Pray for my child every day as he has to live with her.
This post was edited on 11/24/25 at 6:26 am
Posted on 11/24/25 at 6:26 am to koreandawg
Good post. Rational and thoughtful insight for a change is appreciated in this place. 
Posted on 11/24/25 at 6:28 am to koreandawg
Pretty solid list besides one spot.
Notre Dame
I have them up there with the tier 1 teams. They have the next combo of running backs of any team. If they play Ohio State in the quarters it will be a great game and either team can win it.
Notre Dame
I have them up there with the tier 1 teams. They have the next combo of running backs of any team. If they play Ohio State in the quarters it will be a great game and either team can win it.
This post was edited on 11/24/25 at 6:31 am
Posted on 11/24/25 at 6:29 am to Houag80
quote:
Good post. Rational and thoughtful insight for a change is appreciated in this place.
Appreciate it. Certainly didn't go into any indepth analysis of any team listed. I suppose the ones who complained about the length didn't want to read about 12 teams who could possibly make a 12 team playoff field.
Is ADD the norm these days?
This post was edited on 11/24/25 at 6:30 am
Posted on 11/24/25 at 6:30 am to koreandawg
Absolutely
Posted on 11/24/25 at 6:53 am to koreandawg
I would have TT tier 2 as I think they are a real threat to win it all if they get some bounces their way. No team can just line up and run on that defense. Your passing game will need to be on point.
Posted on 11/24/25 at 7:00 am to koreandawg
Excellent breakdown
Posted on 11/24/25 at 7:11 am to Gator Fever
quote:
I would have TT tier 2 as I think they are a real threat to win it all if they get some bounces their way. No team can just line up and run on that defense. Your passing game will need to be on point.
You may be right, but we just haven't seen evidence yet of these mid to low ranked recruiting schools dominate a team at the LOS in the playoff.
Last year Notre Dame dominated Indy.
Penn St. dominated SMU.
Penn St. dominated Boise.
Even when you look at TCU in 2022, Michigan literally gave them two defensive TDs and also failed to come away with any points inside the TCU five on two other possessions and still had a chance to win it on a last drive.
This post was edited on 11/24/25 at 7:12 am
Posted on 11/24/25 at 7:12 am to koreandawg
If you look at the last 3 weeks it’s Ohio state, Georgia, then everyone else.
Posted on 11/24/25 at 7:17 am to Gifman
quote:
If you look at the last 3 weeks it’s Ohio state, Georgia, then everyone else.
As a UGA fan I can say in the last month....
We struggled with a talented but flawed head coachless UF team that has looked average to below average most of the year
We beat an MSU team that has looked feisty at times, but is certainly in the bottom tier of the conference.
We were in a one score game vs. Texas going into the fourth quarter and made the right calls to gain a three score lead before letting them touch the football again.
I love the spirit of this UGA team, but I'm not really ready to say there is a significant gap between them and the field sans Ohio State.
This post was edited on 11/24/25 at 7:21 am
Posted on 11/24/25 at 7:20 am to koreandawg
OSU A&M Indiana Oregon ND all have benefited from very weak schedules give them Oklahomas schedule and they all have one or 2 more losses….
I don’t think there really is a tier where some are worthy of byes….
Defense and special teams and game prep will win this year….
I don’t think there really is a tier where some are worthy of byes….
Defense and special teams and game prep will win this year….
This post was edited on 11/24/25 at 7:30 am
Posted on 11/24/25 at 7:20 am to koreandawg
Yep we need to see it like you say. I think TTs main weakness might be if a team does get their passing game going on them whether they can keep up scoring wise.
Posted on 11/24/25 at 7:21 am to Zgeo
quote:
OU A&M Indiana Oregon ND all have benefited from very weak schedules give them Oklahomas schedule and the all have one or 2 more losses….
I don’t think there really is a tier where some are worthy of byes….
Defense and special teams and game prep will win this year….
I always thought OU was Oklahoma. Was I wrong?
Posted on 11/24/25 at 7:25 am to koreandawg
Have you watched an Indiana game this year?
Mendoza is the best QB in the country by a gap and his OC/HC calls the best tempo/creative route concepts of any team in college football. I’ve never been more envious.
They aren’t going anywhere. I think they’ll rock Ohio State in the B10 championship game.
Mendoza is the best QB in the country by a gap and his OC/HC calls the best tempo/creative route concepts of any team in college football. I’ve never been more envious.
They aren’t going anywhere. I think they’ll rock Ohio State in the B10 championship game.
Posted on 11/24/25 at 7:27 am to koreandawg
Good catch
Posted on 11/24/25 at 7:28 am to BurgTiger
quote:
Have you watched an Indiana game this year?
Mendoza is the best QB in the country by a gap and his OC/HC calls the best tempo/creative route concepts of any team in college football. I’ve never been more envious.
They aren’t going anywhere. I think they’ll rock Ohio State in the B10 championship game.
Yes.
Again, I have not seen a team like that match up with a top ten annual recruiting team in the playoff and really dominate. I would like to see that before I believe.
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