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Historically, a top 10 home team that is favored...
Posted on 11/22/11 at 7:46 am
Posted on 11/22/11 at 7:46 am
By 11 to 13 points has won a little over 83% of the time. So, for all those Arky fans that are so sure of a win, you're looking at about a 16-17% chance or 1 out of 6.
I'll take LSU with the victory 35-17.
I'll take LSU with the victory 35-17.
8
Posted on 11/22/11 at 7:51 am to ChemE in the OP
quote:
By 11 to 13 points has won a little over 83% of the time. So, for all those Arky fans that are so sure of a win, you're looking at about a 16-17% chance or 1 out of 6.
I'll take LSU with the victory 35-17.
Finally, common sense prevails.
Posted on 11/22/11 at 7:51 am to ChemE in the OP
I bet we were favored by 11-13 in 2007
Posted on 11/22/11 at 8:02 am to Elleshoe
Actually, you're correct! So, Arkansas has already used up their 1 out of 6. Even better.
Posted on 11/22/11 at 8:08 am to ChemE in the OP
Five out of 4 R-kansas statisticians say you are wrong.
Posted on 11/22/11 at 8:10 am to ChemE in the OP
quote:
So, Arkansas has already used up their 1 out of 6. Even better.
Previous results have no bearing with probabilities. You might want to hit those books a little harder.
Posted on 11/22/11 at 8:16 am to Ray Penpillage
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Previous results have no bearing with probabilities. You might want to hit those books a little harder.
- A hog on the rant espousing the cause of not using past results since they have no bearing on current probabilities. 
Dude your entire fanbase' argument this year ( albeit puerile ) is the previous 4 games record against LSU.
Posted on 11/22/11 at 8:23 am to CalTiger
There are too many variables to come up a with legit probability. My gut puts our chances at about 20%.
This post was edited on 11/22/11 at 8:48 am
Posted on 11/22/11 at 8:25 am to Ray Penpillage
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here are too many variables to come up a legit probability. My gut puts our chances at about 20%.
Thanks for the insight. That's a bit generous IMO.
Posted on 11/22/11 at 8:30 am to TigerDeBaiter
quote:
Thanks for the insight.
Some of you could use it.
quote:
That's a bit generous IMO.
Fair enough.
Posted on 11/22/11 at 8:34 am to Ray Penpillage
I thought we forfeited the game...
Posted on 11/22/11 at 8:38 am to Ray Penpillage
quote:
Previous results have no bearing with probabilities.
The law of large numbers says otherwise.
Posted on 11/22/11 at 8:40 am to Fatbackhawg
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I thought we forfeited the game...
HELL NO!
You are not going to deprive the LSU seniors from the thrashing that they so rightly deserve to give R-kansas in person
Posted on 11/22/11 at 8:42 am to mule74
quote:
The law of large numbers says otherwise.
The law applies to a single experiment performed numerous times. Every game is a new experiment. Your law doesn't apply.
Posted on 11/22/11 at 8:47 am to Ray Penpillage
OP doesn't consider that record when facing a 10-1 team.
But I wouldn't expect an LSU fan to know important variables when considering stats.
But I wouldn't expect an LSU fan to know important variables when considering stats.
Posted on 11/22/11 at 8:50 am to TigerDeBaiter
No need for us to guess what the probability of a hog victory is. The moneyline is paying like 375. So Vegas thinks we have just over a 20 percent chance of winning.
Posted on 11/22/11 at 9:00 am to beaverfever
quote:
ChineseBandit58
Love when stars from "Swamp People" make comments about Arkansans' intelligence levels. Go noodle an 150 lb mud cat you inbred frick...
Posted on 11/23/11 at 3:01 pm to WhenPigsFly
Makes no difference if you're 10-1 or not. When Vegas puts you as an 11-13 point dog you lose 5 out of 6 times.
Posted on 11/23/11 at 3:09 pm to Ray Penpillage
quote:
Previous results have no bearing with probabilities. You might want to hit those books a little harder.
But ark has won the past 3 out of 4 times theyve played LSU.... STATS!
Posted on 11/23/11 at 3:11 pm to ChemE in the OP
STATS
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