re: Dr. Anthony Fauci warns seasons may need to be scrapped because of coronavirus

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The IMHE model is like watching someone predict SF beats KC 65-0, then the game starts and they keep adjusting, 65-7, 65-10, 45-10, 35-17, 35-24, 35-31, I mean KC 31-28, I mean 31-20 KC wins.

Look at how accurate we were.

No you can’t see how our model works. We are accurate. See...

Even the predictions of daily deaths “have been highly inaccurate,” said statistician Sally Cripps of the University of Sydney, who led a team that examined IHME’s up-and-down projections. “It performs poorly even when it predicts the number of next-day deaths: The true number of next-day deaths has been outside the 95% intervals 70% of the time.” If the 95% calculation correctly reflects a model’s uncertainty, then textbook statistics say the true numbers can fall outside that range no more than 5% of the time.

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That's how all models work. You update the future predictions as more data becomes available.

As for daily deaths, that is a matter of the data being entered. They don't report all the deaths as they happen.

New York added like 4000 deaths at once where people died at home, they just called them "probable". So all those deaths got added to the previous days after the fact.

So given all those factors, I think it's done well so far. It will be interesting to see how if it does as well after the peak as it did before. I'm surprised it got the peak right.

Personally, I hope it's right and I'm pulling for it.

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not possible to mitigate deaths for this virus.

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Sure it is. Takes patience and is costly financially. Just depends on what is of more importance: stocks or lives.

No, it’s not because the price for mitigating COVID deaths would increase deaths at an exponentially higher rate for other reasons due to the length of time people would have to stay out of work for this virus to be eradicated. You are completely out of touch with reality.

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Don’t go injecting disinfectant now

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Impossible to know but “Less disease = less death” is a reasonable prediction.

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But it’s not “less disease”— as soon as people get back out the numbers will
Spike up again. “Flattening the curve” was always supposed to be about spacing out the number of people in the hospital and not overwhelming the system. But if the vaccine doesn’t get out till next year (and their is no guarantee the vaccine will be the panacea, heck the flu shot is what maybe 50/50 for preventing the type of flu that season), and SIP is already being loosened— of course the numbers will spike again and deaths (somewhere between .05 and .1%) will occur.

What we should have done is the Swedish model. We would have had similar results to the infection rate while helping to achieve herd immunity in a much more efficient time.

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Fauci is a fearmonger who would keep the country on shutdown 24/7 for the rest of the year.

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He just a puppet for the psychopathic world elite. He'd shite the country down for the rest of the year, 10 years, 20 years, whatever the ones pulling the strings would tell him to do.