Favorite team:LSU 
Location:Baton Rouge
Biography:LSU student in baton rouge
Interests:LSU football
Occupation:sales
Number of Posts:3740
Registered on:3/10/2007
Online Status:Not Online

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I know their is much more to the ingredients of severe weather than just one measure— but If South Louisiana has next to none of the Updraft Helicity marker predictions in its range— why is the threat still so high (good portion has a 4)for a good portion of this area? Is that at least a positive sign that at least one trend is not in focus for at least the most severe storms?
quote:

My cousin lives roughly 7 miles from my aunt and uncle in Buffalo area A couple weeks ago he got almost a foot of snow and they didn’t get any


Lake affect snow around Buffalo due to Lake Erie is a very wild phenomenon for sure.
quote:

Almost all StG precincts in which in theory picked him up a 13,000 vote advantage. Need non STG to hold out ????


Where can you see which districts are already counted? Also, from what your seeing— how much of the central districts are still left to count?
quote:

1970s. ...and then the Satan worshiping witches were running rampant in the 80s...


You talking about the dead end on Frenchtown by the railroad tracks or was their one on hoo shoo too as well?

re: 2024 BR Mayor Debate of WAFB

Posted by bigbowe80 on 11/19/24 at 10:03 pm
quote:

I don’t think it matters. That 28% Ted got is going to Sharon. The fact this massive tax vote to fund St George is on the ballot would probably also get some of the South BR base out ,but since they’ve apparently chosen to barely mention it, I don’t know what’s gonna happen.


No chance she gets close to her votes and James votes combined because her overall participation numbers are not going to be close to what they were with a presidential race on the ballot in Novembers elections.


The 2% St. George vote will only be in the St. George area of the parish and can only be voted on by St. George people. That is why this keeps gettin repeated over and over why this should help Sid.

If a typical sleepy Dec. runoff gets 10-15 participation — I expect a similar
Number everywhere in the parish (hopefully Sachary and Central are higher as well) except in St. George -hopefully at least double or triple that number with 70-80% of the St. George vote also voting Sid.

That’s where people are saying maybe the math can get him there.

I still think she probably wins but Sid has definitely got an outside shot at this.

re: 2024 BR Mayor Debate of WAFB

Posted by bigbowe80 on 11/19/24 at 9:48 pm
quote:

I’m voting for Sid although, it’s probably an exercise in futility considering that Kamala carried EBR Parish.


Don’t forget— runoff elections always have like 10% participation compared to presidential elections where 40-45 vote.

Not only that the St. George vote has been paying very close attention and will come out fully engaged and vote the 2% property tax + Sid at very high levels.

Give his team a lot of credit- if you were a first time visitor to BR and didn’t know any of the dynamics of the race and you drove anywhere in the Parish— you would think Sid was going to win by a landslide by all the signs everywhere in EBR— Might be 20-1 Sid signs versus SWB.

Not that signs mean anything about actual votes but hats off to his campaign team and volunteers for at least making it a competitive respectable race in a matter of months.

Sid’s got a punchers chance.
You’re not getting the point—the point is an extremely historically high Democrat area shifted over 40 points to the right towards Maga since the 2016 race.

Thats an amazing shift in just 8 years especially in California.
We need Scott down here NOW in East Baton Rouge to work his magic— to do a quick 3 week project to oust SWB in the runoff.

Tell me he would not commiserate with a similar situation regarding the blight and drugs and homelessness on the streets of this town as well.

re: DU has gone dark

Posted by bigbowe80 on 11/1/24 at 1:17 pm
It now says on the front page- how they are trying to push it off on “technical difficulties”

They are saying either they had to shut the entire site down for everyone or keep it limited to just their “star members”.

YEA RIGHT

quote:

Didn’t Reagan grant amnesty with some immigration reform handshake deal that the dems reneged on? This is true. I forget the details.


Same thing happened with raising taxes-the Dems promised to cut spending if Reagan raised taxes with a hand shake agreement and of course the cutting spending never actually happened.
quote:

I am not saying it will make a difference. It was a clear set up. What idiot would tell a joke at a political rally making fun of a group you need to vote for you.


Except they were never going to vote for him.


That’s why the Dems want to make Puerto Rico a state so bad right ? 6 easy Electoral votes and 2 permanent Democrat Senators.

Of course it was stupid to say no doubt about that and of course the Dems will use it— but in the course of the entire election it won’t be the defining moment or anything.
quote:

Let me tell you why I think Trump and the Republicans are screwed with just 10 days to go. 3 things: 1) Ground game


Just one rebuttal to this and it has nothing to do with official RNC ground game (which I think is much stronger than it has been in decades in its own right)—

Surely he realizes a guy moved to Pennsylvania right after the 2020 election and now has a literal army of people working night add day to flip Pennsylvania ?

I can’t remember the actual numbers but they have registered thousands and thousands of new republican voters and cut democrats leads in registered voter from like 700k to less than 300k (remember Trump only lost Pennsylvania by like 100k or so last time).

Also what about the early voting makes him feel like his assertions are being proven right ? Everything I’ve seen shows republicans in a much stronger position than 2020.
Wait a minute Leo,

Is this the same Kamala Harris who said this last month?

“Campaigning in Philadelphia last month, Harris pointed to the Biden administration’s record on increasing domestic oil production, telling voters, “We have had the largest increase in domestic oil production in history because of an approach that recognizes that we cannot over rely on foreign oil.”

I am so confused now— I thought you just said she’s against O&G?

re: Trump lead up to 11 in Texas

Posted by bigbowe80 on 10/17/24 at 10:59 pm
quote:

verybody I know is vote Allred, even some who are not voting for Kamala


The polling in the OP displays and captures and accounts for everything you said . Trump is up by 11 and Cruz is only up by 5. Both would be very comfortable wins by any metric you choose to measure a statewide race by.


Why do you choose to believe some portion of the same poll but not other parts of it?
quote:

Certainly Trump will have an opportunity to respond. As he should. A jury should then weigh the evidence and credibility of the witnesses and render a verdict on whether he broke the law or not.



And that’s what your saying Jack Smith did here releasing all this to the public and out in the media 30 days before the election?

You sure you understand the difference between court system and court of public opinion?

Now your going to try to say with a straight face Trumps legal team has a proper way to respond to this in the media somehow?

I got a text today from some republican trying to get me to support Ted James. I can't do it. I'm voting for Sid. With two strong Democrat candidates, this is the best chance to get a Republican in office. Republicans can't vote for the Democrat though.

You have the correct answer. I think some people are confusing competence with good governance. He probably is more competent than SWB— but that doesn’t mean a better long term trajectory for BR. What if he is just that much more efficient at racing BR to the bottom of the barrel?
quote:

No one thinks Ted James is the ideal candidate. But we live in reality. Its him or its her, and I don't want her for 12 years. No other candidate has any chance whatsoever.


Again— you say that like you are very confident and just assume Ted James is better- from everything I have seen and read about him— he has a lot of the same views and ideology as a Chokwe Antar Lumumba type radical. At least they have worked and associated with alot of the same national radicals anyway.

You think BR is bad now— maybe you should check out what Jackson, MS has been dealing with the last 6-7 years.
quote:

Because he isn't SWB. Pretty simple, really


Again— the Kamala Harris Lackey — you trust he is going to be better than SWB? How? Why? What part of his previous experience and what he is saying he will do now would make you trust him more than SWB?

I don’t get it. It’s not like he is framing himself as another Kip— sort of moderate unifier. If anything he is saying SWB isn’t being aggressive enough attacking and disrupting the St. George transition even more.
So we have an even more radical candidate than SWB in Ted James in the EBR mayoral race and now I am hearing big name local Republicans like Eddie Rispone are backing Ted James?

I don’t get it. Do some republicans actually believe James will be better than SWB?

He’s not— he was Kamala Harris Louisiana State campaign manager in 2020 race— that’s hilarious (and I guess par for the course with weak pathetic local state Republicans) if anyone thinks he will be less radical and more unifying somehow than SWB and definitely not somebody who will clean up the problems in this town.


I just don’t get it. Especially with Sid Edwards out there. Sure he’s a long shot to win a runoff — but I just don’t see how it really matters anyway if you have SWB versus James— they both are equally terrible at that point in a runoff. If you are a Republican— I don’t see how anyone—unless they are maybe promised something once James is elected, is making that call).