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Doomsday scenario: College Football Playoff
Posted on 10/24/16 at 3:29 pm
Posted on 10/24/16 at 3:29 pm
1. (PAC 12) Washington loses to Washington State. Washington State wins the PAC 12 at 11-2 after losing to Eastern Washington to start the year.
2. (ACC) Clemson loses to Florida State. Louisville beats Houston. North Carolina (11-2) wins the ACC.
3. (Big 12) Oklahoma beats West Virginia and Baylor, loses to Oklahoma State, winning the Big 12 at 9-3 (8-1). Baylor loses to Texas, beats West Virginia.
4. (Big Ten) Ohio State beats Michigan, loses to Wisconsin (11-2) in the title game.
5. Alabama goes 13-0. Texas A&M goes 11-1.
At this point, you have the following conference champions:
SEC - Alabama (13-0)
ACC - North Carolina (11-2)
Big Ten - Wisconsin (11-2)
PAC 12 - Washington State (11-2)
Big 12 - Oklahoma (9-3)
Then you have the following 0/1-loss teams:
Boise State: 13-0
Western Michigan: 13-0
Michigan: 11-1
Texas A&M: 11-1
Louisville: 11-1
Washington: 11-1
Aside from Alabama in the 1-slot, who are #2, #3, and #4 in this scenario?
2. (ACC) Clemson loses to Florida State. Louisville beats Houston. North Carolina (11-2) wins the ACC.
3. (Big 12) Oklahoma beats West Virginia and Baylor, loses to Oklahoma State, winning the Big 12 at 9-3 (8-1). Baylor loses to Texas, beats West Virginia.
4. (Big Ten) Ohio State beats Michigan, loses to Wisconsin (11-2) in the title game.
5. Alabama goes 13-0. Texas A&M goes 11-1.
At this point, you have the following conference champions:
SEC - Alabama (13-0)
ACC - North Carolina (11-2)
Big Ten - Wisconsin (11-2)
PAC 12 - Washington State (11-2)
Big 12 - Oklahoma (9-3)
Then you have the following 0/1-loss teams:
Boise State: 13-0
Western Michigan: 13-0
Michigan: 11-1
Texas A&M: 11-1
Louisville: 11-1
Washington: 11-1
Aside from Alabama in the 1-slot, who are #2, #3, and #4 in this scenario?
9
Posted on 10/24/16 at 3:33 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
Louisville 2, Michigan 3, Washington 4. Aggie doesn't get in without playing in championship game.
Posted on 10/24/16 at 3:35 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
I dunno, but I love the chaos
Posted on 10/24/16 at 3:36 pm to Blanky6715
quote:
Louisville 2, Michigan 3, Washington 4. Aggie doesn't get in without playing in championship game.
None of the three teams you picked would play in the championship game. Under this scenario, the title games would be:
SEC: Alabama (12-0)/Florida (10-1)
Big Ten: Ohio State (11-1)/Wisconsin (10-2)
ACC: Clemson (11-1)/North Carolina (10-2)
PAC 12: Washington State (10-2)/Utah (10-2)
Posted on 10/24/16 at 3:41 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
Also, what about 13-0 and unbeaten Boise State in this scenario...who would have a victory over Washington State (game 2), the PAC 12 champion and would be a conference title holder (Mountain West)?
Posted on 10/24/16 at 3:44 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
I'd have to say Boise state gets in with that scenario
Posted on 10/24/16 at 3:45 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
That would be the doomsday scenario. I've always felt that it would take an extreme set of circumstances for more than one conference champion to be shut out of the playoff, but I suppose it could happen. My guess would be:
1. Bama
2. Wisconsin
3. Michigan
4. Louisville
I think Louisville would get the edge over A&M just because their one loss to Clemson was a close loss on the road, and it would get a 3rd conference in--there is a huge incentive to spread the wealth around, and only the Pac-12 and Big XII would look totally unworthy of being in the playoff. Of course, A&M's case would be that they lost to a team that looks to be a huge step ahead over everyone else, and they would have the more impressive victories than the other one loss teams (who cares about Boise and WMU).
1. Bama
2. Wisconsin
3. Michigan
4. Louisville
I think Louisville would get the edge over A&M just because their one loss to Clemson was a close loss on the road, and it would get a 3rd conference in--there is a huge incentive to spread the wealth around, and only the Pac-12 and Big XII would look totally unworthy of being in the playoff. Of course, A&M's case would be that they lost to a team that looks to be a huge step ahead over everyone else, and they would have the more impressive victories than the other one loss teams (who cares about Boise and WMU).
Posted on 10/24/16 at 3:46 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
quote:
None of the three teams you picked would play in the championship game
Wasn't talking about them, just Aggie. Other teams lost earlier so they would be higher than you.
The undefeated will be left out as they always will. Only way they get in is if there are 3 of the above one loss teams and the others have two losses.
Posted on 10/24/16 at 3:47 pm to twk
quote:
who cares about Boise and WMU
WMU I'll give you, however let's take a closer look at Boise State.
Current ranking: 13
At least 3 teams ahead of them WILL lose between now and December. With the doomsday scenario, that number jumps to 9, AND they will have a win over a conference champion who is riding an 11 game win streak.
This post was edited on 10/24/16 at 3:48 pm
Posted on 10/24/16 at 3:50 pm to Blanky6715
quote:
Other teams lost earlier so they would be higher than you.
Under this scenario, Washington loses the day after Thanksgiving in the Apple Cup and Michigan loses the day after. How is that earlier than A&M?
Posted on 10/24/16 at 3:50 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
So you think LSU loses 3 of its last 4?
Posted on 10/24/16 at 3:51 pm to Woodford Rocks
quote:
So you think LSU loses 3 of its last 4?
Yes, if not 4 of their last 4. The LSU schedule is EXTREMELY backloaded this year.
Posted on 10/24/16 at 3:53 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
ACC - North Carolina (11-2)
Big Ten - Wisconsin (11-2)
PAC 12 - Washington State (11-2)
Ending any doubt forever as to what this CFP thingy is all about.
Big Ten - Wisconsin (11-2)
PAC 12 - Washington State (11-2)
Ending any doubt forever as to what this CFP thingy is all about.
This post was edited on 10/24/16 at 3:57 pm
Posted on 10/24/16 at 3:54 pm to Blanky6715
Your aggy hate gets in the way.
Let me clear it up a bit. In his scenario, Washington loses the Apple Cup to WSU, which will be a loss a lot later in the season.
Let me clear it up a bit. In his scenario, Washington loses the Apple Cup to WSU, which will be a loss a lot later in the season.
Posted on 10/24/16 at 4:02 pm to ALA2262
quote:
ACC - North Carolina (11-2)
Big Ten - Wisconsin (11-2)
PAC 12 - Washington State (11-2)
Ending any doubt forever as to what this CFP thingy is all about.
If that happens, the playoff expands to 8 teams as soon as logistically possible, especially since you'd be leaving out a TOP 5 UNBEATEN Boise State.
This post was edited on 10/24/16 at 4:03 pm
Posted on 10/24/16 at 4:08 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
Based on your criteria, this is likely what the standings would look like:
#1 Alabama (13-0)
#2 Wisconsin (11-2)... losses to OSU and Michigan
#3 Texas A&M (11-1)... loss to Bama
#4 North Carolina (11-2)... loss to UGA and VT
------------
#5 Ohio State (11-2)... losses to PSU and Wis.
#6 Michigan (11-1)... loss to OSU
#7 Clemson (12-1)... loss to North Carolina
#8 Louisville (11-1)... loss to Clemson
#9 Washington (11-1)... loss to Washington St.
#10 Florida State (10-2)... losses to UNC and Clemson
#11 Tennessee (10-3)... losses to Bama (2x) and A&M
#12 Auburn (9-3)... losses to Bama, A&M, and Clemson
#13 Boise State (12-0)
#14 Virginia Tech (10-2)... losses to UT and Syr.
#15 Nebraska (10-2)... losses to Wis. and OSU
#16 Washington St. (11-2)... losses to E. Washington & Boise St.)
#17 Oklahoma (9-3)... losses to OSU, Houston, OK St.
#18 Baylor (10-2)... losses to OU and TX
#19 W. Virginia (10-2)... losses to OU and Baylor
#20 OK State (9-3)... losses to CMU, Baylor, and WVU
#21 LSU (8-4)... losses to Bama, A&M, Wis, & AU
#22 Florida (9-3)... losses to UT, LSU, and FSU
#23 W. Michigan (13-0)
#1 Alabama (13-0)
#2 Wisconsin (11-2)... losses to OSU and Michigan
#3 Texas A&M (11-1)... loss to Bama
#4 North Carolina (11-2)... loss to UGA and VT
------------
#5 Ohio State (11-2)... losses to PSU and Wis.
#6 Michigan (11-1)... loss to OSU
#7 Clemson (12-1)... loss to North Carolina
#8 Louisville (11-1)... loss to Clemson
#9 Washington (11-1)... loss to Washington St.
#10 Florida State (10-2)... losses to UNC and Clemson
#11 Tennessee (10-3)... losses to Bama (2x) and A&M
#12 Auburn (9-3)... losses to Bama, A&M, and Clemson
#13 Boise State (12-0)
#14 Virginia Tech (10-2)... losses to UT and Syr.
#15 Nebraska (10-2)... losses to Wis. and OSU
#16 Washington St. (11-2)... losses to E. Washington & Boise St.)
#17 Oklahoma (9-3)... losses to OSU, Houston, OK St.
#18 Baylor (10-2)... losses to OU and TX
#19 W. Virginia (10-2)... losses to OU and Baylor
#20 OK State (9-3)... losses to CMU, Baylor, and WVU
#21 LSU (8-4)... losses to Bama, A&M, Wis, & AU
#22 Florida (9-3)... losses to UT, LSU, and FSU
#23 W. Michigan (13-0)
Posted on 10/24/16 at 4:14 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
Aggoe would have a gripe though...their only loss is the undefeated no.1 team...
Posted on 10/24/16 at 4:15 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
Alabama, UNC and Wisconsin are champions of the three best leagues. They are in. WSU losing to a D-2 makes me cringe but I say the fourth is a league champ. Give me them over Oklahoma. Maybe Boise is the fourth.
This post was edited on 10/24/16 at 4:17 pm
Posted on 10/24/16 at 4:16 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
quote:
Yes, if not 4 of their last 4. The LSU schedule is EXTREMELY backloaded this year.
So, you are iffy on LSU beating Arkie? The same Arkie that just gave up a million yards rushing to Aub? LF and Guice gonna TILT the pinball machine on them.
As for Fla and A&M, I like our chances for the same reasons along with our D.
Bama is Bama, but I feel really good about winning a minimum of 2 of the next 4.
Posted on 10/24/16 at 4:19 pm to ALA2262
quote:
Ending any doubt forever as to what this CFP thingy is all about.
You honestly believe an 11-1 Michigan stays home over 11-2 Wash St? I have some land to sell you =)
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