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re: Do yall believe there will be football this year?
Posted on 4/9/20 at 1:13 pm to TacoNash
Posted on 4/9/20 at 1:13 pm to TacoNash
quote:
He is just throwing out numbers and acting like he knew all along, when no one else in the world did, how this would play out. then he tries so say modeling this virus is as simple as 1+1.
I used the same exact formula they use on TV to get the 3-5% death rate number. The only thing I did different was add in the other 80% of the population that get it and are not tested.
The formula you see quoted daily: Deaths / confirmed cases * 100
Correct formula and the one used to get the 0.1% flu rate: Deaths / (confirmed cases + the other 80%) * 100.
quote:
He has an over inflated sense of intelligence that he needs to feel secure about. Again by making his claims, he self touting himself to be smarter than almost every human alive. He more than likely believe he is an expert in all fields and would never admit that he lacks knowledge in certain areas
I'm not going to apologize for being intelligent.
This post was edited on 4/9/20 at 1:14 pm
2
Posted on 4/9/20 at 1:15 pm to 3down10
quote:
The only thing I did different was add in the other 80% of the population that get it and are not tested.
so you think more than 80% of the population has gotten this?.............or you are just adding 80% to some imaginary number?
I now get why your math is so fricked up.
quote:
I'm not going to apologize for being intelligent.
:rotflmao: :rotflmao: :rotflmao:This post was edited on 4/9/20 at 1:19 pm
Posted on 4/9/20 at 1:19 pm to MrAUTigers
He is an expert. Soooo
This post was edited on 4/9/20 at 1:20 pm
Posted on 4/9/20 at 1:22 pm to TacoNash
"bama math".......it's a real thing.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 1:39 pm to MrAUTigers
Dunning–Kruger effect in action
or if they are older then it would be the illusory superiority
or if they are older then it would be the illusory superiority
This post was edited on 4/9/20 at 1:40 pm
Posted on 4/9/20 at 1:49 pm to MrAUTigers
quote:
so you think more than 80% of the population has gotten this?.............or you are just adding 80% to some imaginary number?
I now get why your math is so fricked up.
/sigh
Only 20% of the people who get the virus are actually tested for it. That means 80% of the people who get the virus are never tested for it. Those are the people you add.
For example, assume there are 1000 confirmed cases. If you add in the other 80% of the cases that are not tested, you now have 5000 actual cases.
And for the sake of easy math, assume there have been 20 deaths.
Now, if we look for the mortality rate using only confirmed cases, which is how it is being done for the coronavirus, you get (20 / 1000) * 100 = 2% mortality rate.
However, when you add in all the other 80%, you get (20 / 5000) * 100 = 0.4% mortality rate.
Once again. The numbers that have constantly been cited by the media and others are only using the confirmed cases for the coronavirus.
However, when they cite the 0.1% number for the flu, they are instead using the formula that adds in the extra 80%(although it's probably not 80%, it would be a number specific for the flu).
And btw, they will likely be doing that for the coronavirus in the near future as well, especially after they test for antibodies.
I'm really unsure how to explain it any better.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 1:55 pm to TacoNash
quote:
Dunning–Kruger effect in action
or if they are older then it would be the illusory superiority
Posted on 4/9/20 at 1:57 pm to 3down10
quote:
Same way they do in flu season.
Totally shocked to see the first retarded take in this thread be this guy
Posted on 4/9/20 at 1:58 pm to djsdawg
quote:
Totally shocked to see the first retarded take in this thread be this guy
You still pushing that 500k dead in the US number?
Posted on 4/9/20 at 2:01 pm to 3down10
I don’t recall pushing that number. The WH has pushed the 2 million dead number if we did nothing, and 100-200k with doing what we are doing. Trump said that would be a victory, or something along those lines. Looks like 500k would be in between their numbers.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 2:03 pm to 3down10
quote:
That means 80% of the people who get infected are NOT counted in the stats the way they are for the 0.1% flu number. They never get to "closed cases" because they never even make it to the "open cases" stage.
Flu deaths and Covid deaths are both supposed to be counted the same way.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 2:04 pm to TacoNash
quote:
The appeal to authority?? Yes, I don't pretend to be an expert on infections disease, so I do tend to listen to people who have spent their whole career studying such things. But I guess that make me an idiot?
Maybe next time I should listen to an expert such as yourself, who has a career in what exactly?
I'm a programmer. I am not an expert in infectious diseases, no doubt about that. I do however have more than 20 years experience when it comes to creating stats using data and making sure they are relevant and accurate without obvious major flaws.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 2:07 pm to djsdawg
quote:
I don’t recall pushing that number. The WH has pushed the 2 million dead number if we did nothing, and 100-200k with doing what we are doing. Trump said that would be a victory, or something along those lines. Looks like 500k would be in between their numbers.
Don't recall huh? Do you recall me offering you a ban bet on the number when I told you it was bullshite?
I have a link on my other browser, I'll dig it up if you want.
Don't really give a shite what the WH is pushing. I told you I'm not political.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 2:12 pm to Peter167
We will never watch another sporting event. Sports will be cancelled this fall and all athletic depts and pro franchises will fold due to lack of funds.
It’s over.
It’s over.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 2:14 pm to djsdawg
quote:
Flu deaths and Covid deaths are both supposed to be counted the same way.
Deaths might be. I'm not sure if the WHO also estimates deaths that aren't accounted for with the flu. I'm thinking they do, but can't remember for sure.
The number for the cases used are not. The WHO does estimate the number of cases that were not tested for with it's numbers on the flu. They for some reason are not doing that on the coronavirus - yet. Maybe they couldn't agree on how to estimate them, not sure. I used 80% because that's what people have been reporting.
When they start doing antibody tests on people, I think the WHO will start adding the estimate to it.
This post was edited on 4/9/20 at 2:17 pm
Posted on 4/9/20 at 2:28 pm to 3down10
quote:
Don't recall huh? Do you recall me offering you a ban bet on the number when I told you it was bullshite?
Don’t recall a Ban bet, but those are for retards, so of course you would have been one to do that.
So glad we didn’t use your strategy, which would have had many more people killed.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 2:50 pm to djsdawg
quote:
Don’t recall a Ban bet, but those are for retards, so of course you would have been one to do that.
If this is 10x as bad as the flu, as the experts claim, then that is nearly 500k deaths in America.
quote:
So glad we didn’t use your strategy, which would have had many more people killed.
We could do it for the flu also and save thousands of lives - every year, but frick those people right!
This post was edited on 4/9/20 at 2:52 pm
Posted on 4/9/20 at 2:55 pm to djsdawg
quote:
So glad we didn’t use your strategy, which would have had many more people killed.
Btw, one thing that that worries me about that website that shows the curve and predicts the 60k deaths is there is no flattening of the curve at all.
On the one hand I have no doubt that the social distances stuff would/should limit the spread.
But why is it still a curve and not flattened?
Posted on 4/9/20 at 2:58 pm to Peter167
Yes, but I think they'll start later
Posted on 4/9/20 at 3:02 pm to 3down10
Flattening a curve still leaves a curve.
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