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re: Do yall believe there will be football this year?
Posted on 4/9/20 at 12:38 pm to MrAUTigers
Posted on 4/9/20 at 12:38 pm to MrAUTigers
quote:
If you are interested at looking at graphs........
check this one out
make sure you take notice at the "closed cases" world wide.
What am I supposed to be taking notice of exactly?
Are you talking about likelyhood of more deaths?
I tend to look at this site, which is the same data: nCoV2019.live
Then you can look over at the critical cases. Sadly, 2/3rds of those people probably won't make it.
1
Posted on 4/9/20 at 12:40 pm to MrAUTigers
quote:
somebody didn't look at my link. note: "closed cases"
Not sure what that matters.
50% of the people who get the virus show 0 symptoms at all.
Another 30% only show mild symptoms and never get tested.
That means 80% of the people who get infected are NOT counted in the stats the way they are for the 0.1% flu number. They never get to "closed cases" because they never even make it to the "open cases" stage.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 12:41 pm to 3down10
quote:
What am I supposed to be taking notice of exactly?
I could not have been more specific.
quote:
make sure you take notice at the "closed cases" world wide.
It is a far greater death rate than your claim.....
quote:
The death rate for the flu is 0.1%
The death rate for the coronavirus is between 0.2% and 0.5%. Will be easier to get a number after they start testing for antibodies.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 12:43 pm to 3down10
quote:
That means 80% of the people who get infected are NOT counted in the stats the way they are for the 0.1% flu number.
bullshite.......so you honestly think everybody who gets the flu goes to the hospital and gets tested? Absolutely none self-medicate off the shelf? 
ETA You are an absolute moron if you are still comparing this virus to the flu.
This post was edited on 4/9/20 at 12:45 pm
Posted on 4/9/20 at 12:45 pm to MrAUTigers
Hey he knows better than the leading world scientist and world leaders. obviously every world leader wanted to crash their economy but if only they had asked him we could have avoided all of this.. If we only knew
Posted on 4/9/20 at 12:46 pm to TacoNash
He certainly is tripling down on his stupidity.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 12:48 pm to TacoNash
quote:
Can you provide the models and number you used that you used weeks ago to predict all these claims.
Also since these models are complex when trying to extract the data, can you provide the spreadsheet that shows your predictions?
Also does your model account for all the covid-19 deaths that have not been reported since they died at home and not a hospital
It's not a different model or anything you are talking about.
All I did was add in the other 80% of cases that do not get tested because 50% of people who get infected show 0 symptoms, never get tested. Another 30% of the population has only mild symptoms and never gets tested.
That leaves about 20% of those who get infected who actually get tested. Only those with severe symptoms, and/or rich people who are better than everyone else in the world and deserve special treatment.
It's exactly what the WHO does for the flu numbers already.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 12:50 pm to 3down10
Can you provide your spreadsheet or work?
Posted on 4/9/20 at 12:50 pm to MrAUTigers
quote:
bullshite.......so you honestly think everybody who gets the flu goes to the hospital and gets tested? Absolutely none self-medicate off the shelf?
ETA You are an absolute moron if you are still comparing this virus to the flu.
No, they don't get tested. Which I've said over and over.
The WHO estimates the people who get it but do not get tested and that is how they get the 0.1% rate for the flu.
If they did NOT add in those estimated cases and only counted the confirmed cases, the flu rate would be closer to 10%.
Are you even fricking reading what I post? Or is your mind already made up on the topic and you'll only believe it when the media tells you?
Posted on 4/9/20 at 12:51 pm to 3down10
quote:
believe it when the media tells you?
You do understand that models != media right?
I hope you aren't suggesting scientist and government's only took action because they watched fox news and cnn
This post was edited on 4/9/20 at 12:53 pm
Posted on 4/9/20 at 12:52 pm to TacoNash
quote:
Can you provide your spreadsheet or work?
What? Do you need a spreadsheet to see 1+1=2?
It's a simple formula. It's the same formula they use to get the current death rate in the 3-5% range, only you add the 80% of the population that doesn't get confirmed.
It's not that complicated.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 12:54 pm to 3down10
quote:
Are you even fricking reading what I post?
quote:
That means 80% of the people who get infected are NOT counted in the stats the way they are for the 0.1% flu number.
I am. Are you reading what you post?
You can do your "bama math" all you want. These are the actual known numbers on "closed cases" that heave been treated.............because that's all they have to go on. They aren't making shite up like you are.
world wide closed cases that have been treated.......21% death rate......no math required
This post was edited on 4/9/20 at 12:59 pm
Posted on 4/9/20 at 12:57 pm to TacoNash
quote:
Hey he knows better than the leading world scientist and world leaders. obviously every world leader wanted to crash their economy but if only they had asked him we could have avoided all of this.. If we only knew
Ah, the good ole appeal to authority.
Panic is not justification for the panic no matter how much you want it to be.
They were saying that a month ago and suddenly the numbers have magically come down to what I was saying the entire time.
I bet if the man on the TV repeated what I said, you'd suddenly believe. But go ahead and tell the world how you think for yourself.
This post was edited on 4/9/20 at 12:58 pm
Posted on 4/9/20 at 12:58 pm to Peter167
At some poitn yes.
Potentially a delayed season but there is 0 reason not to play it and MILLIONS of reason to play the season.
Potentially a delayed season but there is 0 reason not to play it and MILLIONS of reason to play the season.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 12:58 pm to MrAUTigers
quote:
I am. Are you reading what you post?
Do you think 100% of the people who get the coronavirus are tested for it?
Posted on 4/9/20 at 12:58 pm to MrAUTigers
He is just throwing out numbers and acting like he knew all along, when no one else in the world did, how this would play out. then he tries so say modeling this virus is as simple as 1+1.
He has an over inflated sense of intelligence that he needs to feel secure about. Again by making his claims, he self touting himself to be smarter than almost every human alive. He more than likely believe he is an expert in all fields and would never admit that he lacks knowledge in certain areas
He has an over inflated sense of intelligence that he needs to feel secure about. Again by making his claims, he self touting himself to be smarter than almost every human alive. He more than likely believe he is an expert in all fields and would never admit that he lacks knowledge in certain areas
Posted on 4/9/20 at 1:00 pm to 3down10
quote:
They were saying that a month ago and suddenly the numbers have magically come down to what I was saying the entire time.
The numbers are dropping because people are doing the right thing and staying inside. it's that simple. but hey if I predict the stock market to jump 10% next week and it does, does that mean I know what I am talking about?
Posted on 4/9/20 at 1:03 pm to 3down10
quote:
Do you think 100% of the people who get the coronavirus are tested for it?
I don't. I damn sure know not all flu victims get tested or even hospitalized.......unlike you apparently.
Health experts are coming up with these numbers....they aren't using "bama math" or speculating. They are going off of people who they know have contracted this virus and have needed treatment.
You want to link this article or what that health expert has said........if you paid any attention, the health experts said early on that this is far more serious than the flu. But you want to pick and chose what is relevant and what isn't?
This post was edited on 4/9/20 at 1:04 pm
Posted on 4/9/20 at 1:03 pm to 3down10
quote:
Ah, the good ole appeal to authority.
The appeal to authority?? Yes, I don't pretend to be an expert on infections disease, so I do tend to listen to people who have spent their whole career studying such things. But I guess that make me an idiot?
Maybe next time I should listen to an expert such as yourself, who has a career in what exactly?
Posted on 4/9/20 at 1:12 pm to TacoNash
By the way. almost all model that are now predicting a lower death rate assume that social distancing will stay in place until August.
So here is to hoping for an October start for Football, as long as we don't listen to the ignorant and continue to take this as a serious threat.
quote:
But the newest version of the model underscores just how important social distancing continues to be: It assumes those measures -- such as closing schools and businesses -- will continue through the modeled period, which is until August. And it still predicts tens of thousands of deaths.
So here is to hoping for an October start for Football, as long as we don't listen to the ignorant and continue to take this as a serious threat.
This post was edited on 4/9/20 at 1:13 pm
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