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College Football Playoff Calculator
Posted on 10/27/17 at 12:42 pm
Posted on 10/27/17 at 12:42 pm
The folks at 538 have an interesting college football playoff calculator, using multiple simulations to determine each team's chances of winning their conference, making the playoff, and winning the national title:
538 CFP Calculator
According to their analysis, twenty teams have at least a 1% chance of making the playoff as of today. Four of them are from the SEC: Alabama at 70%, Georgia at 39%, Auburn at 5%, and LSU at 1%. Anyway, what's neat is that you can see how the probabilities change in different scenarios, like winning or losing the next game and winning out. Anyway, just thought folks might find it interesting.
538 CFP Calculator
According to their analysis, twenty teams have at least a 1% chance of making the playoff as of today. Four of them are from the SEC: Alabama at 70%, Georgia at 39%, Auburn at 5%, and LSU at 1%. Anyway, what's neat is that you can see how the probabilities change in different scenarios, like winning or losing the next game and winning out. Anyway, just thought folks might find it interesting.
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Posted on 10/27/17 at 12:43 pm to profwilson
Chicken said there would be no math.
Posted on 10/27/17 at 12:44 pm to profwilson
quote:
Auburn at 5%,
Lol, guess it grades on a curve.
Posted on 10/27/17 at 12:44 pm to profwilson
quote:
LSU at 1%
Posted on 10/27/17 at 12:46 pm to profwilson
Bookmarked.
For shits and giggles.
For shits and giggles.
Posted on 10/27/17 at 12:46 pm to profwilson
quote:
Auburn at 5%
So you're saying there's a chance?
Posted on 10/27/17 at 12:46 pm to profwilson
Florida State made list
List is sh*t
List is sh*t
Posted on 10/27/17 at 12:50 pm to Cheese Grits
quote:
Florida State made list
Florida State is NOT one of the 20 teams that they say have at least a 1% chance of making the playoff. They are on the graphic, but even if you check the "win out" box for them, they still show less than a 1% chance of winning their conference or making the playoff--which is obviously correct.
Posted on 10/27/17 at 12:56 pm to profwilson
quote:
Florida State is NOT one of the 20 teams that they say have at least a 1% chance of making the playoff.
Yes, but still lots of 2 loss SEC teams still in the mix and Cats are 5-2 and not on the list. Granted their odds are long and they probably drop game to Vols, but for right now they are still in play from a straight math sense.
Posted on 10/27/17 at 1:05 pm to five_fivesix
quote:
hicken said there would be no math.
Math is racist
Posted on 10/27/17 at 1:07 pm to Cheese Grits
It looks like their cutoff for showing a team on the chart was a top 25 ranking in at least one of the three ratings systems that they look at (FPI, ELO, and the AP Poll), and/or at least a 1% chance of winning their conference or making the playoff. Kentucky doesn't make that cut--whereas Florida State, believe it or not, apparently ranks 16 in the FPI (though they are deservedly unranked by the other two metrics).
This post was edited on 10/27/17 at 1:08 pm
Posted on 10/27/17 at 1:10 pm to profwilson
I hate the fact that it pulls that "unlikely to happen" crap. It makes it clear that the 538 folks have never watched a full CFB season.
Posted on 10/27/17 at 1:11 pm to Cheese Grits
quote:
Yes, but still lots of 2 loss SEC teams still in the mix and Cats are 5-2 and not on the list. Granted their odds are long and they probably drop game to Vols, but for right now they are still in play from a straight math sense.
Because from their math standards.
And it's Nate Silver he's way smarter than me, not even going to question that.
The Kentucky wildcats do not have chance based on his statistical calculations and simulations.
basic math... yes.
But this is 538, not basic math.
Posted on 10/27/17 at 1:18 pm to profwilson
Gives LSU a 63% chance to make playoffs. hmmmmm.... 
Posted on 10/27/17 at 1:28 pm to MistaMike9
quote:
Gives LSU a 63% chance to make playoffs.
I'm not sure where you're getting this. It gives LSU a 66% chance to make the playoffs IF they were to win out--a pretty big assumption. If they just beat Alabama next week (which the model says they have a 10% chance to do), their chance to make the playoff goes up to 12%. All of those percentages sound about right to me.
Posted on 10/27/17 at 1:33 pm to I Bleed Garnet
quote:
But this is 538, not basic math.
Point being, if you have 3 losses you are eliminated from the list PERIOD!'
3-4 Texas would not be on list
5-3 Louisville would not be on list
2-4 Florida State would not be on the list
3-3 Florida is not on list but is better than Florida State right now
5-2 Kentucky is not on list but is better than Texas right now
Posted on 10/27/17 at 1:35 pm to Cheese Grits
quote:
Point being, if you have 3 losses you are eliminated from the list PERIOD!'
Because with their math they think those 3 have better chances of winning their conference than Florida or Kentucky has.
If you click win out for all 3 of those teams they are still less than 1% to make the playoff.
Also,
Like I said, this is 538. Not basic math.
This post was edited on 10/27/17 at 1:37 pm
Posted on 10/27/17 at 1:47 pm to profwilson
Are these the people that had Hillary with a 98.7 percent chance of winning up 'til about 8:30 on election night?
Georgia's going blue guys! R-right?
Georgia's going blue guys! R-right?
Posted on 10/27/17 at 2:07 pm to ChiTownBammer
quote:
Are these the people that had Hillary with a 98.7 percent chance of winning up 'til about 8:30 on election night?
Actually, they're not. 538 caught a lot of flack from other analysts in the run-up to the election because they consistently showed Trump with a better chance to win (usually 25-35%) than others did. They correctly perceived, when others didn't, that there was a higher than average degree of uncertainty in the race because Trump was an unconventional candidate, and that the dynamics of the Electoral College actually gave him, not Clinton, a bit of an advantage.
Now, admittedly, none of that has anything to do with college football, but it does show that the folks at 538 tend to be pretty good and careful modelers.
Posted on 10/27/17 at 2:16 pm to profwilson
Interesting, and like someone said, it's fun to see how it plays out.
Thanks for posting.
Thanks for posting.
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