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CFB Rankings (#1-130) Beta Version #1 (entire rankings and data included)
Posted on 9/22/21 at 8:18 am
Posted on 9/22/21 at 8:18 am
Combination of "How Good Your Team Is" rankings (SP+/FPI), "How Good Your Resume Is" rankings (Strength of Record/Game Control) and "How Dominant Have You Been" (Average Game Win Probability).
Anyway, here is how they popped out
1. ALABAMA
2. GEORGIA
3. Oregon
4. Michigan
5. Oklahoma
6. Penn State
7. OLE MISS
8. Iowa
9. Michigan State
10. ARKANSAS
11. Clemson
12. FLORIDA
13. Cincinnati
14. BYU
15. Notre Dame
16. North Carolina
17. Ohio State
18. TEXAS A&M
19. Fresno State
20. Kansas State
21. Coastal Carolina
22. Wisconsin
23. Liberty
24. Baylor
25. Minnesota
31. Auburn
36. LSU
44. Kentucky
47. Mississippi State
57. Tennessee
70. Missouri
72. South Carolina
124. Vanderbilt
quote:
SOR: Strength of Record rank. Reflects chance that an average Top 25 team would have team's record or better, given the schedule.
GC: Game Control rank. Reflects chance that an average Top 25 team would control games from start to end the way this team did, given the schedule.
AVGWP: Team's average in-game win probability rank adjusted for chance that an average FBS team would control games from start to end the way this team did, given the schedule.
Anyway, here is how they popped out
1. ALABAMA
2. GEORGIA
3. Oregon
4. Michigan
5. Oklahoma
6. Penn State
7. OLE MISS
8. Iowa
9. Michigan State
10. ARKANSAS
11. Clemson
12. FLORIDA
13. Cincinnati
14. BYU
15. Notre Dame
16. North Carolina
17. Ohio State
18. TEXAS A&M
19. Fresno State
20. Kansas State
21. Coastal Carolina
22. Wisconsin
23. Liberty
24. Baylor
25. Minnesota
31. Auburn
36. LSU
44. Kentucky
47. Mississippi State
57. Tennessee
70. Missouri
72. South Carolina
124. Vanderbilt
This post was edited on 9/22/21 at 9:56 am
18
Posted on 9/22/21 at 8:20 am to SummerOfGeorge
Oh, well…this is sure to get some in here going early this morning.
Posted on 9/22/21 at 8:20 am to SummerOfGeorge
Oof I know one set of fans that’s not going to be pleased. 
Posted on 9/22/21 at 8:21 am to SummerOfGeorge
Michigan and Oklahoma wayyy too high but looks pretty good outside of that
Posted on 9/22/21 at 8:23 am to SummerOfGeorge
Ole Miss ahead of Iowa at this point in the year lol
Posted on 9/22/21 at 8:23 am to Solo Cam
True and I’d also think Michigan State would be above Michigan.
Posted on 9/22/21 at 8:23 am to SummerOfGeorge
Based on those metrics the list seems about right
Posted on 9/22/21 at 8:24 am to Solo Cam
quote:
Michigan and Oklahoma wayyy too high but looks pretty good outside of that
I don't trust Michigan long-term based on the last 4-5 years but they've been a damn machine so far this season. Still, I don't think anybody trusts them - even their own fans.
Oklahoma is top 3 in the SP+/FPI and then 9-13 in the actual "on field this season" rankings. It's one of those where they should be better and assuming they get a little better and their on field is underwater right now, but if they end up being what their on field has been so far then they are a borderline top 10 team.
Posted on 9/22/21 at 8:25 am to SummerOfGeorge
Seems pointless.
Posted on 9/22/21 at 8:25 am to Solo Cam
Looks pretty spot on except the OU, not sure but not to far off. It's early though but will be interesting to see where this shakes out.
Posted on 9/22/21 at 8:26 am to Hawgeye
quote:
True and I’d also think Michigan State would be above Michigan.
MSU is still pretty low in the SP+/FPI stuff because of past performance. They and Michigan are both really high in "on field" stuff.
Strength of Record
6. Michigan State
15. Michigan
Game Control
5. Michigan
7. Michigan State
Average Win Probability
3. Michigan
17. Michigan State
Posted on 9/22/21 at 8:27 am to LB84
quote:
Ole Miss ahead of Iowa at this point in the year lol
Well they're basically even. Iowa has played a tougher schedule, Ole Miss has beaten the shite out of their schedule by more.
Posted on 9/22/21 at 8:28 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Beta
quote:
SummerOfGeorge
checks out
Posted on 9/22/21 at 8:29 am to Soda City Spur
To be honest I was expecting that one to come out within the first 2-3 posts. That it took 8-9 posts to get to the Beta joke is only due to Arkansas > Aggie, I think.
Posted on 9/22/21 at 8:31 am to SummerOfGeorge
Responses:
LSU: Too high..
A&M: Still better than Texas..
Arkansas: We sailing!
Auburn: Biased poll is biased!
Georgia: Flip the top 2 and it looks right to me..
Ole Miss: The Lane Train is coming..
Texas: Have you seen our new QB?
Oklahoma: (File still loading..)
Gators: Did y’all see how we almost beat Alabama last week?
Vanderbilt: We are at the library right now. Please leave a message and we will get back to you after finals.
Tennessee: Is it baseball season?
LSU: Too high..
A&M: Still better than Texas..
Arkansas: We sailing!
Auburn: Biased poll is biased!
Georgia: Flip the top 2 and it looks right to me..
Ole Miss: The Lane Train is coming..
Texas: Have you seen our new QB?
Oklahoma: (File still loading..)
Gators: Did y’all see how we almost beat Alabama last week?
Vanderbilt: We are at the library right now. Please leave a message and we will get back to you after finals.
Tennessee: Is it baseball season?
Posted on 9/22/21 at 8:34 am to SummerOfGeorge
Save the obvious Michigan wtf rating (I actually think they are better than usual this year) it doesn't seem that far off. Still a few weeks early to trust most metrics.
Posted on 9/22/21 at 8:36 am to SummerOfGeorge
So Alabama plays 4 of the top 18 during the regular season, and if they win out either the current #2 or #12 in the SECCG.
Posted on 9/22/21 at 8:38 am to SummerOfGeorge
SEC OOC Opponents
6. Penn State
11. Clemson
23. Liberty
27. Texas
33. UCLA
38. Memphis
46. NC State
48. Pittsburgh
53. Stanford
54. Miami
55. UAB
65. Louisville
73. Tulane
74. Florida Atlantic
75. Louisiana Tech
81. Troy
82. Georgia Tech
84. Colorado
85. Kent State
93. East Carolina
97. New Mexico
99. Central Michigan
101. Florida State
104. Georgia State
106. South Florida
108. Colorado State
109. Georgia Southern
115. Southern Miss
118. Bowling Green
119. ULM
122. Rice
123. Akron
130. UConn
6. Penn State
11. Clemson
23. Liberty
27. Texas
33. UCLA
38. Memphis
46. NC State
48. Pittsburgh
53. Stanford
54. Miami
55. UAB
65. Louisville
73. Tulane
74. Florida Atlantic
75. Louisiana Tech
81. Troy
82. Georgia Tech
84. Colorado
85. Kent State
93. East Carolina
97. New Mexico
99. Central Michigan
101. Florida State
104. Georgia State
106. South Florida
108. Colorado State
109. Georgia Southern
115. Southern Miss
118. Bowling Green
119. ULM
122. Rice
123. Akron
130. UConn
This post was edited on 9/22/21 at 8:40 am
Posted on 9/22/21 at 8:43 am to SummerOfGeorge
SOG..
Are all 3 weighted equally? I was trying to figure out where Texas landed on this list.
Texas
FPI 11
SOR 49
AVGWP 54
Total 114
Minnesota
FPI 39
SOR 39
AVG WP 41
Total 119
Are you using a weighted formula or is my data wrong?
ETA: I think I am missing the SP+ and Record Control
Are all 3 weighted equally? I was trying to figure out where Texas landed on this list.
Texas
FPI 11
SOR 49
AVGWP 54
Total 114
Minnesota
FPI 39
SOR 39
AVG WP 41
Total 119
Are you using a weighted formula or is my data wrong?
ETA: I think I am missing the SP+ and Record Control
This post was edited on 9/22/21 at 8:46 am
Posted on 9/22/21 at 8:45 am to BigBro
quote:
Are all 3 weighted equally? I was trying to figure out where Texas landed on this list.
No
Raw = (((SP+FPI)/2)*40%) + ((SOR+GC/2)*55%)) + (Avg Win Prob *5%)
So, in theory
- 55% "strength of your resume/profile"
- 40% "how good you are"
- 5% "how dominant have you been regardless of opponent"
It's obviously a sliding scale of how important you think each area is - I only barely used average win probability because it's not attached to any sort of opponent adjustment, so Boston College is #5 on Avg WP but only #46 on Strength of Record because they hammered Colgate and Temple and were up from the start against UMass. I mean that's good, it's better than the alternative, but SOR kind of explains to the user that "yea, but a bunch of other teams would do the same thing".
This post was edited on 9/22/21 at 8:49 am
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