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CFB Program Rankings: 2020
Posted on 1/12/21 at 11:42 am
Posted on 1/12/21 at 11:42 am
I created a formula years ago and update it every year at the conclusion of the season. It's roughly based on the all-time AP Poll Standings, with a 3x bonus for winning a championship. So if a team wins a National Title, they get 75 points. The #2 team gets 24 points. The #3 team gets 23 points, etc.
AP Poll performance in the most recent 10 seasons gets 100% credit... meaning no deductions.
Each team's annual points from 50 years ago and longer back only gets 50% credit.
Each teams' annual points that are 11-49 seasons ago get partial credit on a sliding scale that deducts slightly the further away it gets.
So for example, all National Titles won from 2011-2020 get the full 75 points. All national Titles won between 1936-1971 get half credit (37.5 points). The 1972 title won by USC gets 51.25% credit, the 1973 title won by Alabama gets 52.50% credit, etc. all the way up to Auburn's National Title in 2010 which now just started deducting and it now gets 98.75% credit. With each passing year it will get less and less credit until it reaches 50 years ago and then it sits constant at 50% credit.
This system credits teams for all-time success, but it rewards more recent success with a greater value. It's a balance between the two.
With that said, here are the updated Program Rankings through 2020 with change in rank from last year noted:
1. Alabama- 1,271
2. Ohio State- 979
3. Oklahoma- 970
4. Notre Dame- 844
5. USC- 787
6. Michigan- 712
7. Nebraska- 681
8. LSU- 657
9. Texas- 644
10. Florida St.- 585
11. Miami- 582
12. Florida- 581
13. Penn St.- 553
14. Georgia- 503 (up 2 spots)
15. Clemson- 502 (up 2 spots)
16. Tennessee- 499 (down 2 spots)
17. Auburn- 487- (down 2 spots)
18. Michigan St.- 347
19. UCLA- 336
20. Texas A&M- 303 (up 2 spots)
21. Washington- 295 (down 1 spot)
22. Wisconsin- 286 (down 1 spot)
23. Arkansas- 267
24. Oregon- 254
25. TCU- 246
The gap between #10 Florida State and #17 Auburn is relatively small.... all 8 teams are closely packaged together. Meanwhile Alabama is now so far out front, it would take a decade or more for Ohio State or Oklahoma to catch them.
AP Poll performance in the most recent 10 seasons gets 100% credit... meaning no deductions.
Each team's annual points from 50 years ago and longer back only gets 50% credit.
Each teams' annual points that are 11-49 seasons ago get partial credit on a sliding scale that deducts slightly the further away it gets.
So for example, all National Titles won from 2011-2020 get the full 75 points. All national Titles won between 1936-1971 get half credit (37.5 points). The 1972 title won by USC gets 51.25% credit, the 1973 title won by Alabama gets 52.50% credit, etc. all the way up to Auburn's National Title in 2010 which now just started deducting and it now gets 98.75% credit. With each passing year it will get less and less credit until it reaches 50 years ago and then it sits constant at 50% credit.
This system credits teams for all-time success, but it rewards more recent success with a greater value. It's a balance between the two.
With that said, here are the updated Program Rankings through 2020 with change in rank from last year noted:
1. Alabama- 1,271
2. Ohio State- 979
3. Oklahoma- 970
4. Notre Dame- 844
5. USC- 787
6. Michigan- 712
7. Nebraska- 681
8. LSU- 657
9. Texas- 644
10. Florida St.- 585
11. Miami- 582
12. Florida- 581
13. Penn St.- 553
14. Georgia- 503 (up 2 spots)
15. Clemson- 502 (up 2 spots)
16. Tennessee- 499 (down 2 spots)
17. Auburn- 487- (down 2 spots)
18. Michigan St.- 347
19. UCLA- 336
20. Texas A&M- 303 (up 2 spots)
21. Washington- 295 (down 1 spot)
22. Wisconsin- 286 (down 1 spot)
23. Arkansas- 267
24. Oregon- 254
25. TCU- 246
The gap between #10 Florida State and #17 Auburn is relatively small.... all 8 teams are closely packaged together. Meanwhile Alabama is now so far out front, it would take a decade or more for Ohio State or Oklahoma to catch them.
This post was edited on 1/12/21 at 11:43 am
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Posted on 1/12/21 at 11:43 am to BHMKyle
quote:
10. Florida St.- 585
How in the hell did they not drop?
Posted on 1/12/21 at 11:43 am to BHMKyle
I really think your formula for this is as good as any I've seen at measuring something that is extremely difficult to measure.
Posted on 1/12/21 at 11:43 am to BHMKyle
Really well done OP 
Posted on 1/12/21 at 11:43 am to BHMKyle
(no message)
Posted on 1/12/21 at 11:44 am to BHMKyle
Tennessee is a dying program
Posted on 1/12/21 at 11:44 am to TideSaint
quote:
How in the hell did they not drop?
I mean when you are ranking programs that has a huge emphasis on historical performance, one bad season is not going to send a program freefalling down with the mid-majors. Nor should it.
Posted on 1/12/21 at 11:44 am to BHMKyle
quote:
14. Georgia- 503 (up 2 spots)
quote:
17. Auburn- 487- (down 2 spots)
Posted on 1/12/21 at 11:45 am to tiger perry
Tennessee is the Nebraska of the SEC
Posted on 1/12/21 at 11:46 am to BHMKyle
Posted on 1/12/21 at 11:52 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
I really think your formula for this is as good as any I've seen at measuring something that is extremely difficult to measure.
Thanks. Took a while to build but now I just add a row at the end of each season and it updates quick. I'd like to go backwards all the way to the 1940s or so and chart each programs high and low point, but I haven't found the time.
Posted on 1/12/21 at 11:57 am to BHMKyle
Can you do just from the BCS era to present?
Posted on 1/12/21 at 11:58 am to mwlewis
No surprise there. Auburn has been drifting away from UGA the last decade +.
Posted on 1/12/21 at 12:00 pm to hg
quote:
Can you do just from the BCS era to present?
That would be interesting
Posted on 1/12/21 at 12:05 pm to BHMKyle
Interesting analysis.
LSU was a couple spots higher than I would have figured and both Tennessee and Penn St a couple spots lower... although I could see Tennessee dropping like a rock. LSU seems to have assumed the historical SEC runner-up spot.
LSU was a couple spots higher than I would have figured and both Tennessee and Penn St a couple spots lower... although I could see Tennessee dropping like a rock. LSU seems to have assumed the historical SEC runner-up spot.
Posted on 1/12/21 at 12:14 pm to BHMKyle
If you remove the point deductions for AP Poll points from many years ago and just treat all points the same..... ie a #10 finish in 1936 is treated as equal as a #10 finish in 2020, etc.... most programs come out within 1-2 spots in terms of ranking regardless.
The programs that benefit the most from awarding more points to more recent success are these (number of ranking spots increased):
+9 Oregon
+4 Wisconsin
+4 TCU
+3 Florida State
+3 Texas A&M
+3 Iowa
These programs have performed substantially better in the last 50 years than prior to that. **I was shocked Clemson didn't show up. They would be #17 without the age deductions included where as they finish #15 with them included. So they do benefit but only by 2 spots.
On the flip-side, here are the programs most penalized by deducting from performance that occurred many years ago:
-8 Minnesota
-7 Army
-5 Ole Miss
-5 Pitt
-5 Tennessee
-3 Penn State
Obviously Minnesota... a program with 4 National Titles all won between 1936-1960 is going to hurt the most from this system. If all performance is treated equal, they are the #20 program of all-time. But if you deduct points away from championships won many years ago, they fall all the way to #28. **I was surprised Nebraska didn't show up on this list. They likely will in time, but they actually come out #7 either way you run it.
The programs that benefit the most from awarding more points to more recent success are these (number of ranking spots increased):
+9 Oregon
+4 Wisconsin
+4 TCU
+3 Florida State
+3 Texas A&M
+3 Iowa
These programs have performed substantially better in the last 50 years than prior to that. **I was shocked Clemson didn't show up. They would be #17 without the age deductions included where as they finish #15 with them included. So they do benefit but only by 2 spots.
On the flip-side, here are the programs most penalized by deducting from performance that occurred many years ago:
-8 Minnesota
-7 Army
-5 Ole Miss
-5 Pitt
-5 Tennessee
-3 Penn State
Obviously Minnesota... a program with 4 National Titles all won between 1936-1960 is going to hurt the most from this system. If all performance is treated equal, they are the #20 program of all-time. But if you deduct points away from championships won many years ago, they fall all the way to #28. **I was surprised Nebraska didn't show up on this list. They likely will in time, but they actually come out #7 either way you run it.
This post was edited on 1/12/21 at 12:44 pm
Posted on 1/12/21 at 12:26 pm to hg
quote:
Can you do just from the BCS era to present?
Not without spending a bunch of time. Last year I did go back and find the rankings at the conclusion of each decade going back to the 1950s, so I do have what the rankings were at the end of the 1999 season (pretty close to the BCS era).
Change in total points during the last 21 seasons:
+392 Alabama
+259 Clemson
+187 Ohio State
+146 LSU
+126 Oregon
+106 Stanford
+95 Wisconsin
+90 TCU
+87 Oklahoma
+86 Auburn
+83 Michigan State
+79 Florida State
+77 Georgia
+75 Oklahoma State
+63 Baylor
+57 Boise State
***Keep in mind, with each passing year teams that accumulated success more than 11-49 seasons ago are seeing their previous accomplishments devalued. So teams that had zero accomplishments from long ago like Stanford, Baylor, Boise, etc. benefit because they are seeing very few points devalued and only get to keep their full credit new accomplishments from recent times.
So this doesn't necessarily mean TCU has been better than Oklahoma. Oklahoma has obviously been better.... but Oklahoma also had a ton of Championships and great seasons since the 1950s that are devaluing each and every year. The fact that they've added to their point total at all is somewhat impressive.
On the flipside, thanks to devaluation, here are the programs who have watched their point totals fall over the past 21 seasons:
-113 Nebraska
-68 Miami
-50 Tennessee
-43 Texas
-30 Pitt
-28 Colorado
-25 USC
-21 Michigan
-19 Penn St.
-14 UCLA
Posted on 1/12/21 at 12:27 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
8. LSU- 657
Not possible. I’m told LSU is clinging to 1 national title and a phantom season and was never nor will never be a good team again.
Posted on 1/12/21 at 12:27 pm to BHMKyle
You put a ton of work into this. I am wondering what the points change was for the teams. Seeing those numbers make me wonder how much change the points made for this season. Do you have the points changes handy?
Posted on 1/12/21 at 12:28 pm to BHMKyle
I really like this ranking system. Very objective. For reference, and to put into context the greatness of Alabama's last ten years (excluding 2010 season and everything that came before it), Alabama has accumulated 482 points, which would put it only 5 points behind Auburn's total program history points. 
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