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re: Case for a National Seed: Auburn vs LSU
Posted on 5/20/25 at 12:23 pm to vidtiger23
Posted on 5/20/25 at 12:23 pm to vidtiger23
We keep seeing that the RPI is flawed, then use sports writer polls as evidence
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Posted on 5/20/25 at 12:29 pm to vidtiger23
quote:
Only the data points that point towards Auburn are included.
That’s absolutely false. I included SEC records which favor LSU. I mean it’s right there in the OP. Go read it.
quote:
The fact that RPI is a flawed system in baseball.
That might be your opinion, but it’s still heavily regarded by the committee whether you like it or not. And I hate to break it to you and the little TX bro, but the committee doesn’t give two shits what the rankings look like according to Perfect Game or USA Today, so listing out six different opinion polls and highlighting them all purple as if they are all separate data pieces used by the committee is hilariously manipulative and irrelevant.
Posted on 5/20/25 at 12:35 pm to AUTiger789
quote:
the committee doesn’t give two shits what the rankings look like according to Perfect Game or USA Today, so listing out six different opinion polls and highlighting them all purple as if they are all separate data pieces used by the committee is hilariously manipulative and irrelevant.
I didn’t provide that post and I agree that rankings don’t mean shite lol. Not sure why I’ve gotten two comments talking about rankings as I haven’t mentioned them at all. But there are relevant metrics in that post that lean LSU that was not talked about in the OP. Conveniently of course.
Posted on 5/20/25 at 12:37 pm to Tammany Tom
quote:
No… there has been numerous posts by LSU fans with data supporting why we won’t be left out. You just “choose” to ignore them.
LSU is ranked in the Top 8 in all categories comparing contenders for a top 8 national seed.
Using the categories you listed, plus a few more..
If someone feels like the polls have too much of an impact, here is the list with the polls averaged into 1 category.
Obviously the last one is a little bit closer for all teams, but I think it shows the polls show the perception of each team, and that matters because humans will be making the selections.
Sadly, I think this also shows that Texas is probably going to be the #1 overall seed. I'll be happy if that isn't the case.
Posted on 5/20/25 at 12:41 pm to AUTiger789
AUTiger789 - Still do not understand why you are singling LSU out when there are 7 other national seeds and Auburn has been included in the top 8 in all projections.
Why not shite on UNC, Vanderbilt, or FSU?
Is it because LSU had a bad weekend against Auburn and you think based on one weekend Auburn is the far superior team? The games were all pretty close (at least games 2/3).
Why not shite on UNC, Vanderbilt, or FSU?
Is it because LSU had a bad weekend against Auburn and you think based on one weekend Auburn is the far superior team? The games were all pretty close (at least games 2/3).
Posted on 5/20/25 at 12:57 pm to LSUGrad2005
quote:
Why not shite on UNC, Vanderbilt, or FSU?
UNC is getting a national seed. They have BY FAR the best resume outside the SEC so they are guaranteed. There’s no point in analyzing it because they are a lock.
Florida State’s resume is not national seed worthy barring an ACC Tournament win, and even still it will likely fall way short.
Vanderbilt has a solid resume that is solidly ahead of both Auburn’s and LSU’s. And yes, Auburn won the series against the Dores but I can still look at their overall body of work and know they are at this point a national seed lock.
quote:
Is it because LSU had a bad weekend against Auburn
I mean if you will read the thread you already have the answers. Auburn and LSU both have Top 7 overall resumes. They both SHOULD be national seeds. Up until this week, pretty much everyone was saying the SEC would only get 5 National Seeds max… that seems to be changing as we get closer and no non-SEC teams other than North Carolina can seem to be able to get it together and claim one… but if the committee decides to cap it at 5, one deserving SEC team will be on the chopping block. At that point, it appears it will come down to either LSU or Auburn. Hence the thread. But LSU fans got their panties in a wad because they want everyone to fawn over them and act like they are the greatest thing since sliced bread.
Posted on 5/20/25 at 1:09 pm to AUTiger789
quote:
But LSU fans got their panties in a wad because they want everyone to fawn over them and act like they are the greatest thing since sliced bread.
Because we are the best baseball program in America
Posted on 5/20/25 at 1:20 pm to AUTiger789
@AUTiger789
Why didn’t you add ELO to the OP?
Why didn’t you add ELO to the OP?
Posted on 5/20/25 at 1:39 pm to BigBro
I mean this appears to be a much more reasonable attempt at comparing resumes, and as the last chart that doesn’t overly weight every individual human poll shows, LSU and Auburn are within a point of each other at the bottom of the list… 5th and 6th. Which is basically what I’ve been saying all along.
What your chart still leaves out is any factor of SOS other than imbedded SOS within the RPI.
This is SOS ranked among the six
1- Auburn
2- Vanderbilt
3- Georgia
4- Arkansas
5- Texas
6- LSU
Exploring this in more detail, here are how many games played against the current RPI Top 25 teams:
25- Auburn
22- Vanderbilt
21- Arkansas
21- Georgia
16- Texas
16- LSU
Records against RPI Top 25 Opponents:
.625- Texas (10-6)
.619- Arkansas (13-8)
.591- Vanderbilt (13-9)
.560- Auburn (14-11)
.524- Georgia (11-10)
.500- LSU (8-8)
Auburn has played 9 extra games against Top 25 opponents compared to LSU, and based off LSU’s .500 record against such opponents, had they played nine additional Top 25 opponents, it’s reasonable to assume they’d have four or five additional losses. That’s a hypothetical sure, but it also goes to show that their 2 extra wins in SEC play and 4 extra wins overall is obviously in large part due to the fact they played far fewer tough games.
It’s not really a stretch to admit they had a scheduling advantage…. Not sure why some of you guys act like it doesn’t exist when it is as clear as day in the data.
What your chart still leaves out is any factor of SOS other than imbedded SOS within the RPI.
This is SOS ranked among the six
1- Auburn
2- Vanderbilt
3- Georgia
4- Arkansas
5- Texas
6- LSU
Exploring this in more detail, here are how many games played against the current RPI Top 25 teams:
25- Auburn
22- Vanderbilt
21- Arkansas
21- Georgia
16- Texas
16- LSU
Records against RPI Top 25 Opponents:
.625- Texas (10-6)
.619- Arkansas (13-8)
.591- Vanderbilt (13-9)
.560- Auburn (14-11)
.524- Georgia (11-10)
.500- LSU (8-8)
Auburn has played 9 extra games against Top 25 opponents compared to LSU, and based off LSU’s .500 record against such opponents, had they played nine additional Top 25 opponents, it’s reasonable to assume they’d have four or five additional losses. That’s a hypothetical sure, but it also goes to show that their 2 extra wins in SEC play and 4 extra wins overall is obviously in large part due to the fact they played far fewer tough games.
It’s not really a stretch to admit they had a scheduling advantage…. Not sure why some of you guys act like it doesn’t exist when it is as clear as day in the data.
This post was edited on 5/20/25 at 1:45 pm
Posted on 5/20/25 at 1:39 pm to AUTiger789
Gtfo
Posted on 5/20/25 at 1:52 pm to LSUGrad2005
I assume the root of this is thinking Auburn has an arguable case for getting in ahead of LSU but that if an SEC team is going to be left out, it isn't going to be LSU and it won't necessarily be because of the metrics (even though you could argue that either way).
Which is probably all true - if it's 50-50 or even 60-40 Auburn, LSU is still getting that spot if there is some artificial cap on SEC teams getting national seeds.
As an AU fan I'm not going to pretend that the preeminent teams/programs in a given sport aren't going to get those tiebreakers, so it doesn't really bother me. Although if we meet Friday and AU wins and we're still the odd man out, maybe I'll bristle more about it.
Which is probably all true - if it's 50-50 or even 60-40 Auburn, LSU is still getting that spot if there is some artificial cap on SEC teams getting national seeds.
As an AU fan I'm not going to pretend that the preeminent teams/programs in a given sport aren't going to get those tiebreakers, so it doesn't really bother me. Although if we meet Friday and AU wins and we're still the odd man out, maybe I'll bristle more about it.
Posted on 5/20/25 at 1:54 pm to AUTiger789
Posted on 5/20/25 at 1:57 pm to AUTiger789
quote:
but the committee doesn’t give two shits
That auburn played Georgia and ole miss and LSU played Missouri and South Carolina
Posted on 5/20/25 at 2:13 pm to AUTiger789
quote:
Exploring this in more detail, here are how many games played against the current RPI Top 25 teams:
25- Auburn
22- Vanderbilt
21- Arkansas
21- Georgia
16- Texas
16- LSU
By simply moving the bar to Top 30 RPI..
That's a pretty small change and shows how stats can change to fit a narrative..
Posted on 5/20/25 at 2:36 pm to BigBro
quote:
By simply moving the bar to Top 30 RPI..
LOL! Yes because everyone is always talking about the Top 30. Not the Top 25. The Top 30! What a joke you are.
Secondly, how incredibly deceptive you are to count LSU’s wins against #30 Mississippi State but ignore Auburn’s wins over the same team and just act like they don’t exist.
Just a straight shooter you are. No manipulation or narrative whatsoever.
Posted on 5/20/25 at 2:44 pm to AUTiger789
I have actually read the thread, and if you have read any of my posts ITT, I have said that both teams deserve to get national seeds. But, you are saying that Auburn is more deserving and that is an opinion.
As an LSU fan I do not feel like LSU is the #1 team in the country, but can certainly get hot and play like it. Just like several other teams, Auburn included.
However, I did say earlier, whether you want to believe it or not; this is still a beauty contest when the resumes are as close as LSU and Auburn. And just like Alabama in football, if the commitee cannot decide based on resume LSU will get selected because of history.
LSU also lead the country in attendance again, and the NCAA wants money so again LSU would get selected. T
As an LSU fan I do not feel like LSU is the #1 team in the country, but can certainly get hot and play like it. Just like several other teams, Auburn included.
However, I did say earlier, whether you want to believe it or not; this is still a beauty contest when the resumes are as close as LSU and Auburn. And just like Alabama in football, if the commitee cannot decide based on resume LSU will get selected because of history.
LSU also lead the country in attendance again, and the NCAA wants money so again LSU would get selected. T
Posted on 5/20/25 at 3:18 pm to AUTiger789
quote:
LOL! Yes because everyone is always talking about the Top 30. Not the Top 25. The Top 30! What a joke you are.
You really don’t like it when anyone counters anything you say with objective facts if said facts don’t agree with you, do you?
Posted on 5/20/25 at 3:42 pm to AUTiger789
quote:
What a joke you are.
quote:
Secondly, how incredibly deceptive you are to count LSU’s wins against #30 Mississippi State but ignore Auburn’s wins over the same team and just act like they don’t exist.
I did count those wins a-hole. I did however miss a 2nd midweek game against Georgia Tech, so you record is 15-12 vs the Top 30 instead of 14-12, but it certainly wasn't on purpose.. dick.
quote:
Just a straight shooter you are. No manipulation or narrative whatsoever.
I gave you a 2nd chance after yesterday, but now I'm done. You can frick right off. On top of that, you completely missed the point I was making..
The corrected version.
This post was edited on 5/20/25 at 3:44 pm
Posted on 5/20/25 at 3:50 pm to BigBro
This. Aubie, the stats say what we already know: they’re in need of making a run in Hoover
Posted on 5/20/25 at 4:11 pm to BigBro
Baseball is new to these kids. Hopefully they’ll learn soon enough.
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