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Best Case / Worst Case Scenarios from 2017
Posted on 5/30/18 at 9:41 pm
Posted on 5/30/18 at 9:41 pm
This is a fun thing Phil Steele does and will be in his mag when it comes out but we don't have to wait for him to drop it. The idea is to look at all the close games a team had in the past season, their "best case" scenario is imagining they win every game that was within a touchdown or less while the "worst case" is imagining they lose those games. It gives you a good idea of the band in which teams operated in the last year and maybe how they'll do next year:
The following teams achieved their best case scenario (won all close games): Alabama
The following teams achieved their worse case scenario (lost all close games): Auburn
Most close games: Kentucky, South Carolina, and Texas A&M with 7
Fewest close games: Vanderbilt, Missouri with 2
Georgia
Overall Record: 13–2
Wins within a TD: 2
Losses within a TD: 1
Best Case: 14-1
Worst Case: 11-4
South Carolina
Overall Record: 9–4
Wins within a TD: 6
Losses within a TD: 1
Best Case: 10-3
Worst Case: 3-9
Kentucky
Overall Record: 7–6
Wins within a TD: 4
Losses within a TD: 3
Best Case: 10-3
Worst Case: 4-8
Missouri
Overall Record: 7-6
Wins within a TD: 1
Losses within a TD: 1
Best Case: 8-5
Worst Case: 6-7
Florida
Overall Record: 4–7
Wins within a TD: 2
Losses within a TD: 3
Best Case: 7-4
Worst Case: 2-9
Vanderbilt
Overall Record: 5–7
Wins within a TD: 1
Losses within a TD: 1
Best Case: 6-6
Worst Case: 4-8
Tennessee
Overall Record: 4–8
Wins within a TD: 2
Losses within a TD: 3
Best Case: 7-5
Worst Case: 2-10
Auburn
Overall Record: 10-4
Wins within a TD: 0
Losses within a TD: 3
Best Case: 13-1
Worst Case: 10-4
Alabama
Overall Record: 13–1
Wins within a TD: 3
Losses within a TD: 0
Best Case: 13-1
Worst Case: 10-4
LSU
Overall Record: 9–4
Wins within a TD: 2
Losses within a TD: 2
Best Case: 11-2
Worst Case: 7-6
Mississippi State
Overall Record: 9–4
Wins within a TD: 2
Losses within a TD: 2
Best Case: 11-2
Worst Case: 7-6
Texas A&M
Overall Record: 7–6
Wins within a TD: 4
Losses within a TD: 3
Best Case: 3-9
Worst Case: 10-3
Ole Miss
Overall Record: 6–6
Wins within a TD: 2
Losses within a TD: 2
Best Case: 8-4
Worst Case: 4-8
Arkansas
Overall Record: 4–8
Wins within a TD: 2
Losses within a TD: 3
Best Case: 7-5
Worst Case: 2-10
The following teams achieved their best case scenario (won all close games): Alabama
The following teams achieved their worse case scenario (lost all close games): Auburn
Most close games: Kentucky, South Carolina, and Texas A&M with 7
Fewest close games: Vanderbilt, Missouri with 2
Georgia
Overall Record: 13–2
Wins within a TD: 2
Losses within a TD: 1
Best Case: 14-1
Worst Case: 11-4
South Carolina
Overall Record: 9–4
Wins within a TD: 6
Losses within a TD: 1
Best Case: 10-3
Worst Case: 3-9
Kentucky
Overall Record: 7–6
Wins within a TD: 4
Losses within a TD: 3
Best Case: 10-3
Worst Case: 4-8
Missouri
Overall Record: 7-6
Wins within a TD: 1
Losses within a TD: 1
Best Case: 8-5
Worst Case: 6-7
Florida
Overall Record: 4–7
Wins within a TD: 2
Losses within a TD: 3
Best Case: 7-4
Worst Case: 2-9
Vanderbilt
Overall Record: 5–7
Wins within a TD: 1
Losses within a TD: 1
Best Case: 6-6
Worst Case: 4-8
Tennessee
Overall Record: 4–8
Wins within a TD: 2
Losses within a TD: 3
Best Case: 7-5
Worst Case: 2-10
Auburn
Overall Record: 10-4
Wins within a TD: 0
Losses within a TD: 3
Best Case: 13-1
Worst Case: 10-4
Alabama
Overall Record: 13–1
Wins within a TD: 3
Losses within a TD: 0
Best Case: 13-1
Worst Case: 10-4
LSU
Overall Record: 9–4
Wins within a TD: 2
Losses within a TD: 2
Best Case: 11-2
Worst Case: 7-6
Mississippi State
Overall Record: 9–4
Wins within a TD: 2
Losses within a TD: 2
Best Case: 11-2
Worst Case: 7-6
Texas A&M
Overall Record: 7–6
Wins within a TD: 4
Losses within a TD: 3
Best Case: 3-9
Worst Case: 10-3
Ole Miss
Overall Record: 6–6
Wins within a TD: 2
Losses within a TD: 2
Best Case: 8-4
Worst Case: 4-8
Arkansas
Overall Record: 4–8
Wins within a TD: 2
Losses within a TD: 3
Best Case: 7-5
Worst Case: 2-10
Posted on 5/30/18 at 9:54 pm to KSGamecock
Bullcrap. Bama's closest loss was the 14 point win against LSU where Bama took a knee at the 5 yard line to end the game.
Everyone thought LSU played the best and deserved to win.
Everyone thought LSU played the best and deserved to win.
Posted on 5/30/18 at 9:59 pm to East Coast Band
Natty by 24.natty by 6
Posted on 5/30/18 at 10:04 pm to KSGamecock
Is winning close games a team skill or luck? If, given a large enough sample, would all teams be around .500 in 1-TD games?
South Carolina looks like the most likely to regress from that list. Or they're the best in close games. Idk. Depends on your interpretation of the data.
South Carolina looks like the most likely to regress from that list. Or they're the best in close games. Idk. Depends on your interpretation of the data.
Posted on 5/30/18 at 10:17 pm to GatorsGators
quote:
Is winning close games a team skill or luck?
The eternal question, it's both and the proportion of each depends on the coach and team so this is all of limited utility.
quote:
South Carolina looks like the most likely to regress from that list
Yep, another interesting thing to look at is turnover margins which is another thing Phil examines, I haven't looked at that yet.
Posted on 5/30/18 at 10:21 pm to KSGamecock
Why would you start such a beta thread? Silly cuck.
Posted on 5/30/18 at 10:22 pm to KSGamecock
quote:
Auburn
Overall Record: 10-4
Wins within a TD: 0
Losses within a TD: 3
quote:
Alabama
Overall Record: 13–1
Wins within a TD: 3
Losses within a TD: 0
Maybe coaching is the difference in close games.
Posted on 5/30/18 at 11:41 pm to KSGamecock
quote:
Texas A&M
Overall Record: 7–6
Wins within a TD: 4
Losses within a TD: 3
Best Case: 3-9
Worst Case: 10-3
Why do you hate Texas A&M so much?
quote:
Ole Miss
Overall Record: 6–6
Wins within a TD: 2
Losses within a TD: 2
Best Case: 8-4
Worst Case: 4-8
This is about as average as average gets. And I’m fine with it.
This post was edited on 5/30/18 at 11:44 pm
Posted on 5/31/18 at 6:46 am to East Coast Band
quote:
Bullcrap. Bama's closest loss was the 14 point win against LSU where Bama took a knee at the 5 yard line to end the game.
Everyone thought LSU played the best and deserved to win.
MState 31-24
Georgia 26-23
And I am guessing they are counting:
Texas A&M 27-19 even though it was actually an 8 pt. win.
Posted on 5/31/18 at 10:27 am to TomRollTideRitter
quote:
Maybe coaching is the difference in close games.
I wholeheartedly agree
Posted on 5/31/18 at 10:36 am to KSGamecock
quote:
Yep, another interesting thing to look at is turnover margins which is another thing Phil examines, I haven't looked at that yet
We were towards the top of the league in that category.
Posted on 5/31/18 at 10:53 am to TomRollTideRitter
quote:
Maybe coaching is the difference in close games.
Too bad you couldn't keep the IB close.
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