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re: Bama and 5* Recruits
Posted on 2/6/14 at 8:36 am to randomways
Posted on 2/6/14 at 8:36 am to randomways
quote:You're absolutely right....eventhough logic is foreign to most goat-humpers and coonasses, so don't expect many affirmative responses.
It's pretty fair not to count ones who weren't eligible for the draft, especially ones who took themselves out of eligibility (by being criminals, quitting, flunking, etc.) The point of any such stat is to demonstrate the ability of a program to develop talent/impress the NFL, and if a player is taken out of the running by factors outside of a given program's control, it's pretty difficult to knock the program for it. (It's like counting early entrants to the draft as knocks on a program's graduation rate -- a kid who jumps at the opportunity to take a job that makes him millions doesn't, in himself, reflect negatively on a university's emphasis on academics. Plenty of straight-A engineering students, for instance, would gladly quit school in their junior year for a million dollar/year engineering job.) Any 5*'s motivation should be to take full advantage of the opportunity presented, not assume statistics will do his job for him. So a legitimate stat in this area would basically have to be prefaced with "All eligible players...." If a player is processed for reasons of ability/talent without outside factors involved, however, that's a different issue, and reflects negatively on the program's ability to develop talent and/or evaluate it in the process of deciding who to recruit. So those certainly should be counted against the program.
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Posted on 2/6/14 at 8:41 am to NYCAuburn
quote:
not really since that has nothing to do with it.
"Hey lets make a statistic and take out all the negative aspects of it, that makes it look more legit"
That was basically my point, though. The "negative" aspects of a stat need to actually reflect negatively on the subject of the stat. If they don't, then it's specious, at best, to focus on them (and, yes, I do know that the point of SECr is to pounce on any excuse, however tenuous, to flame. I've come to terms with that.
) quote:
Doug Gotlieb(sorry can't spell)
Gottlieb. Just remember it's from the German for "God (Gott) [is] kind (lieb)" Then wonder how the hell that applies to Doug.
This post was edited on 2/6/14 at 8:45 am
Posted on 2/6/14 at 8:42 am to TheCaterpillar
quote:
I would love to know the percentage of top 15 players that become 1st round picks.
Then look at that percentage for each major power.
I bet they are very similar.
Yeah. That's not true at all. From 2008-2010 (not including those not drafted prior to this year from 2010), players from the top 15 have been a first round pick 10 times out of 36 players.
28% of the top 15 has been drafted in the first round since 2008.
Of those 10 players:
Bama has four out of four possible.
LSU has one out two possible.
Florida has one of three possible.
Mizzou has two out of two possible.
Posted on 2/6/14 at 8:47 am to randomways
quote:
That was basically my point
Didnt you say you should only count draft eligible players?
If so, then you are taking out the negative aspect of the stat and the original statement regarding 5 star recruits. Therefor skewing the statistic to not show the actual results
Posted on 2/6/14 at 8:49 am to NYCAuburn
And the state war continues 
Posted on 2/6/14 at 8:49 am to Walkthedawg
First rounders
2008
Julio Jones
2009
DJ Fluker
Dre Kirkpatrick
Trent Richardson
2010
Dee Milliner
2011
Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (probable)
Cyrus Kouandjio (probable)
Not first rounders
2008
Tyler Love
BJ Scott
2009
Nico Johnson
Still enrolled
2011
Dee Hart
2012
TJ Yeldon
Landon Collins
Eddie Williams
2013
Johnathan Allen
Rueben Foster
OJ Howard
A'Shawn Robinson
2014
Tony Brown
Rashaan Evans
Bo Scarbrough
Da'Shawn Hand
Cameron Robinson
Marlon Humphrey
2008
Julio Jones
2009
DJ Fluker
Dre Kirkpatrick
Trent Richardson
2010
Dee Milliner
2011
Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (probable)
Cyrus Kouandjio (probable)
Not first rounders
2008
Tyler Love
BJ Scott
2009
Nico Johnson
Still enrolled
2011
Dee Hart
2012
TJ Yeldon
Landon Collins
Eddie Williams
2013
Johnathan Allen
Rueben Foster
OJ Howard
A'Shawn Robinson
2014
Tony Brown
Rashaan Evans
Bo Scarbrough
Da'Shawn Hand
Cameron Robinson
Marlon Humphrey
Posted on 2/6/14 at 8:52 am to NYCAuburn
quote:
Didnt you say you should only count draft eligible players?
If so, then you are taking out the negative aspect of the stat and the original statement regarding 5 star recruits. Therefor skewing the statistic to not show the actual results
Not quite. I said that if a player is ineligible because of factors outside a program's control, then it's not really kosher to use that as a knock on them. I then went on to observe that if a player simply fails to perform while under a program's control (and that would count players that transferred because they weren't being developed sufficiently to warrant PT, imho), that should certainly be counted against the program.
To put it in Auburn terms -- I don't hold Michael Dyer against Auburn (unless you want to argue institutional failure on all levels, as some might argue with certain UF teams under Urban) because Auburn can hardly be held accountable for Dyer's inability to follow the rules set down for him.
This post was edited on 2/6/14 at 8:56 am
Posted on 2/6/14 at 8:52 am to labamafan
quote:
Depends on who you listen to. Doug Gotlieb(sorry can't spell) instead of just crediting the sec yesterday went on a diatribe about when are these kids going to realize if you go to a USC or Notre Dame your degree will be more of a national appeal. A degree in Alabama is only good if you want to work in a major city in Alabama or Atlanta. It was really kind of a sorry segment.
That's a pretty meaningless statement. Too many factors to make that call (type of major, etc). Plus, I saw a stat one time that showed something like over 90% of all people in the USA live and work within 4-5 hours travel of where they grew up.
"National appeal" for a degree SOUNDS really nice but is really not worth that much unless your industry requires it. Example, if you have an Ivy League degree, yeah, you'll make more money on Wall St. But if you're up for the VP slot at a small regional bank in the Southeast, it really doesn't matter if your degree is from Princeton. JMHO.
Posted on 2/6/14 at 8:55 am to randomways
quote:
Not quite. I said that if a player is ineligible because of factors outside a program's control, then it's not really kosher to use that as a knock on them.
Well again, you are discrediting the original premise of the stat, 5 star recruits that sign with the program. When you remove them, you again are skewing the stat.
Its pretty simple, did 5 star recruit sign with program? yes or no Did 5 star recruit get drafted first round? yes or no Any variation beyond that it merely skewing the statistic to make the stat look more convincing then it really is
ETA. And I dont even really care what it is for bama. but when you add more and more disclaimers it discredits the statement.
This post was edited on 2/6/14 at 8:58 am
Posted on 2/6/14 at 8:59 am to NYCAuburn
quote:
Its pretty simple, did 5 star recruit sign with program? yes or no Did 5 star recruit get drafted first round? yes or no Any variation beyond that it merely skewing the statistic to make the stat look more convincing then it really is
I don't think you can include players who were arrested or kicked off due to their own actions. That doesn't have anything to do with Nick Saban and his ability to get you to the NFL. It has to do with the players' ability to not make stupid decisions. Most players don't have a problem with it, but obviously there have been a few.
Posted on 2/6/14 at 8:59 am to Tornado Alley
quote:
Still enrolled
2011
Dee Hart
2012
TJ Yeldon
Landon Collins
Eddie Williams
2013
Johnathan Allen
Rueben Foster
OJ Howard
A'Shawn Robinson
2014
Tony Brown
Rashaan Evans
Bo Scarbrough
Da'Shawn Hand
Cameron Robinson
Marlon Humphrey
According to my calculations and if trends continue, about half of these guys will end up "not counting" using your criteria for this statistic.
Posted on 2/6/14 at 9:00 am to Tuscaloosa
quote:
I don't think you can include players who were arrested or kicked off due to their own actions. That doesn't have anything to do with Nick Saban and his ability to get you to the NFL. It has to do with the players' ability to not make stupid decisions. Most players don't have a problem with it, but obviously there have been a few.
So add more disclaimers to skew the stat/comment? again, seems legit
Posted on 2/6/14 at 9:01 am to NYCAuburn
quote:
Well again, you are discrediting the original premise of the stat, 5 star recruits that sign with the program. When you remove them, you again are skewing the stat.
I'm not discounting anything. I'm making an intellectual/ethical observation about what makes a stat meaningful. If someone says "XX school's only 5* recruit got busted for selling meth and went to jail for 20 years," you have statistical fact. It's factual that they have never developed a 5* talent to get into the NFL. Their rivals can crow endlessly about their 0.0% success rate. But it's entirely valid to point out that you're not making a meaningful observation about XX school's ability to develop talent, just about the 5*'s inability to control his drug-dealing impulses.
Posted on 2/6/14 at 9:02 am to Tuscaloosa
And there is a TON of butthurt in this thread.
How about this for a recruiting pitch:
"Every single recruiting class I've signed since 2000 has finished with at least one national championship before they graduated."
How about this for a recruiting pitch:
"Every single recruiting class I've signed since 2000 has finished with at least one national championship before they graduated."
This post was edited on 2/6/14 at 9:04 am
Posted on 2/6/14 at 9:03 am to NYCAuburn
quote:
So add more disclaimers to skew the stat/comment? again, seems legit
Seems logical. Perhaps your hatred of Bama is fogging your logic.
Posted on 2/6/14 at 9:04 am to Walkthedawg
quote:
I was listening to Mike and Mike this morning and they said since Satan has been at Bama, every 5 star recruit has been a 1st round draft pick
How much did the REC pay ESPN to say that???
Posted on 2/6/14 at 9:05 am to randomways
But the statement is if you are a five star and sign with bama you will get drafted in the first round. unless you are not top 15 5 star, unless you get kicked out of the program, unless you got arrested, unless you quit on the team, unless... unless..., unless...
Do you not see the fail in that? What happens to them once they sign is a direct result from being there. How do oyu know if they had not taken another road that same circumstance would have happened? you dont, which is why you cant exclude them
Do you not see the fail in that? What happens to them once they sign is a direct result from being there. How do oyu know if they had not taken another road that same circumstance would have happened? you dont, which is why you cant exclude them
This post was edited on 2/6/14 at 9:08 am
Posted on 2/6/14 at 9:05 am to Tiger n Miami AU83
quote:
Not even close. Several have not been. There was some study a year or so ago that showed Bama had about the worst percentage of four and five star guys make it to the nfl of any sec school.
Facts, meet TnM's arse. You'll be pulled from there frequently, so get used to it.
Posted on 2/6/14 at 9:06 am to Tuscaloosa
quote:
Perhaps your hatred of Bama is fogging your logic.
good grief, do you not see who is blinded in the conversation and when you add this, you look even more blinded.
Posted on 2/6/14 at 9:10 am to StopRobot
quote:Since this was on Mike and Mike, I would think that the stats would be from ESPN recruiting.
Here is the original tweet LINK from some ESPN chick I don't know.
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