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Bad losses don’t matter to the CFP committee
Posted on 11/16/19 at 5:33 am
Posted on 11/16/19 at 5:33 am
Apparently a good win does. They’ve said as much with this week’s poll.
A team has one of the worst losses in the top 15, losing to a 4-6 team at home that lost to App st. Yet the CFP committee chose to rank them ahead of Alabama. This can only mean that their Florida win carried a lot of weight, because the losses aren’t even close to comparable.
To me, this is bad news for Alabama and good news for a one loss Oregon or Oklahoma. Again, using the rational for committee’s decision to rank the team referenced above ahead of Alabama as evidence, if Oregon and Oklahoma finish with one loss they would more than likely have beaten a top ten team to get there. Alabama just doesn’t have a game on their schedule to make up for this.
Alabama could potentially give Auburn their 4th loss end the season having no wins over a top 25 team. If they get in over a one loss conference champion with that resume then Bama privilege is a real thing.
A team has one of the worst losses in the top 15, losing to a 4-6 team at home that lost to App st. Yet the CFP committee chose to rank them ahead of Alabama. This can only mean that their Florida win carried a lot of weight, because the losses aren’t even close to comparable.
To me, this is bad news for Alabama and good news for a one loss Oregon or Oklahoma. Again, using the rational for committee’s decision to rank the team referenced above ahead of Alabama as evidence, if Oregon and Oklahoma finish with one loss they would more than likely have beaten a top ten team to get there. Alabama just doesn’t have a game on their schedule to make up for this.
Alabama could potentially give Auburn their 4th loss end the season having no wins over a top 25 team. If they get in over a one loss conference champion with that resume then Bama privilege is a real thing.
This post was edited on 11/16/19 at 9:45 am
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Posted on 11/16/19 at 5:35 am to Buga
Auburn will still be top 25 four losses.
Oh and oF cOuRsE tHeY aRe GoNNa DRoP iF tHey LoSe to Us
Oh and oF cOuRsE tHeY aRe GoNNa DRoP iF tHey LoSe to Us
Posted on 11/16/19 at 5:37 am to SXV
Even then you still wouldn’t have a better win than a potential one loss Oklahoma or Oregon.
Posted on 11/16/19 at 5:41 am to Buga
What matters is having more than one loss. That has been shown to matter quite a bit.
Auburn would've gotten in with two in 2017, but they had to beat two no. 1s and then beat one of them again (which they didn't do) to get there. And one of their regular season losses was to a playoff team.
I think what the committee is saying is that two quality wins can negate that loss to a great extent. None of this really matters. The only ranking that matters is in December. It just assures UGA fans that if they win out, they are in. I never really doubted that anyway.
And just so you know, I'm not by any means banking on winning out. Feel it's far less likely this year than the last two.
Auburn would've gotten in with two in 2017, but they had to beat two no. 1s and then beat one of them again (which they didn't do) to get there. And one of their regular season losses was to a playoff team.
I think what the committee is saying is that two quality wins can negate that loss to a great extent. None of this really matters. The only ranking that matters is in December. It just assures UGA fans that if they win out, they are in. I never really doubted that anyway.
And just so you know, I'm not by any means banking on winning out. Feel it's far less likely this year than the last two.
Posted on 11/16/19 at 5:43 am to koreandawg
My take wasn’t really about Georgia, it’s more about the committee’s criteria for bumping you over Bama.
Look at it this way
Two teams have one loss.
Team X lost to a 4-6 team
Team Y lost to the #1 team in the country.
Team Y beat the team that team X lost to
Who do we rank higher?
Committee said screw the losses, who have they beaten?
Team X gets the nod.
That rational bodes well for Oregon or Oklahoma.
Look at it this way
Two teams have one loss.
Team X lost to a 4-6 team
Team Y lost to the #1 team in the country.
Team Y beat the team that team X lost to
Who do we rank higher?
Committee said screw the losses, who have they beaten?
Team X gets the nod.
That rational bodes well for Oregon or Oklahoma.
This post was edited on 11/16/19 at 6:00 am
Posted on 11/16/19 at 6:02 am to Buga
Objectively, I would have ranked Bama over Georgia. To me losing to the #1 team in the nation by 5 points suggests a stronger team than a team that wins over Florida and ND neither of which have looked impressive.
Having said that, I think the Committee is hedging their bets. They anticipate the following:
1. Bama won't be in the SECCG.
2. Georgia likely will be in the SECCG.
3. They want a potential SEC Champion to be ranked higher than a team that doesn't have a chance to win a conference championship. As such, I think part of their logic indicates a bias towards potential conference champions which seems appropriate.
Having said that, I think the Committee is hedging their bets. They anticipate the following:
1. Bama won't be in the SECCG.
2. Georgia likely will be in the SECCG.
3. They want a potential SEC Champion to be ranked higher than a team that doesn't have a chance to win a conference championship. As such, I think part of their logic indicates a bias towards potential conference champions which seems appropriate.
This post was edited on 11/16/19 at 6:33 am
Posted on 11/16/19 at 6:04 am to GurleyGirl
I’ve always felt the focus should be on quality wins and not quality losses.
Posted on 11/16/19 at 6:07 am to Buga
The thing is though, all the Bama complaining is for naught. If UGA loses to LSU, they will obviously fall behind Bama. If they beat LSU, they would've vaulted over them anyway. I don't really get why the whining type Bammers can't see that.
The toughest call the committee will have to make is if Oregon wins out and Bammer drills Auburn and of course, UGA loses to LSU. History suggests they'll take Oregon. We'll see.
One thing is for certain, that LSU loss really prevents Bama from strengthening their schedule. Auburn could have 3 losses with a Bama win being the fourth. And that will make them fall near the bottom of the rankings.
The toughest call the committee will have to make is if Oregon wins out and Bammer drills Auburn and of course, UGA loses to LSU. History suggests they'll take Oregon. We'll see.
One thing is for certain, that LSU loss really prevents Bama from strengthening their schedule. Auburn could have 3 losses with a Bama win being the fourth. And that will make them fall near the bottom of the rankings.
Posted on 11/16/19 at 6:10 am to GurleyGirl
I thought so too, with UGA having a shot to jump Bama by the time the SECCG played out.
But not sure if they are a lock to put Oregon over Bama considering your argument as well as Bama having a win against Oregon’s only loss. I think it’s just high hopes from LSU fans at this point.
But not sure if they are a lock to put Oregon over Bama considering your argument as well as Bama having a win against Oregon’s only loss. I think it’s just high hopes from LSU fans at this point.
Posted on 11/16/19 at 6:10 am to Buga
That's total bs. OSU lost 1 game last year and won the conference. THEY were left out because of a bad loss. It was the same thd year before.
Posted on 11/16/19 at 6:13 am to SXV
quote:
as Bama having a win against Oregon’s only loss.
But this is exactly what just happened this week. The committee just ranked a team higher than Bama that lost to a team Bama beat.
Posted on 11/16/19 at 6:16 am to Buga
Good point. I don’t understand it myself. They contradict themselves every year.
Posted on 11/16/19 at 6:29 am to Buga
This is a different committee and they seem to have different criteria. At least so far.
Posted on 11/16/19 at 6:31 am to Buga
There is also a difference in losing straight up and losing how we lost.
Posted on 11/16/19 at 6:37 am to AllDawgCK
I believe they are certainly taking losses into account. But, also rewarding taking a chance in scheduling and especially winning those. So, Oregon and Norte Dame both get some credit for scheduling their big OOC games. Auburn and UGA get extra credit for winning them. Bama will struggle only because they get neither of those.
So, they realize that Bama’s loss is “better” than UGA’s. But, UGA gets the Good Win credit for UF and the Extra Credit for scheduling/beating ND.
So, they realize that Bama’s loss is “better” than UGA’s. But, UGA gets the Good Win credit for UF and the Extra Credit for scheduling/beating ND.
Posted on 11/16/19 at 6:42 am to Buga
quote:
Georgia has one of the worst losses in the top 15
We also have two of the best wins of anyone in the top 15. Maybe that carries more positive weight than the one terrible loss.
What quality wins do Oregon, Oklahoma or Bama have right now?
Posted on 11/16/19 at 6:46 am to Porter Osborne Jr
I guess you didn’t read the whole post. I think my point was that quality wins matter.
I posited that if Oklahoma and Oregon finish the season with one loss they will have that quality win.
I guess I need to put a note on my post for GA fans that my take has really nothing to do with Georgia and their playoff hopes and more about the CFP committee criteria.
I posited that if Oklahoma and Oregon finish the season with one loss they will have that quality win.
I guess I need to put a note on my post for GA fans that my take has really nothing to do with Georgia and their playoff hopes and more about the CFP committee criteria.
This post was edited on 11/16/19 at 6:50 am
Posted on 11/16/19 at 6:55 am to bayou prince
quote:
That's total bs. OSU lost 1 game last year and won the conference. THEY were left out because of a bad loss. It was the same thd year before.
That is meaningless... they had to choose between two undefeated conference champs, an undefeated Notre Dame and two 1 loss conference champs.
Oklahoma’s one loss was better than Ohio State’s. It’s that simple.
Posted on 11/16/19 at 7:10 am to Buga
quote:
Georgia has one of the worst losses in the top 15, losing to a 4-6 team at home that lost to App st. Yet the CFP committee chose to rank them ahead of Alabama. This can only mean that their Florida win carried a lot of weight, because the losses aren’t even close to comparable.
Or....hear me out, now...it could be because we have beaten two ranked teams. Two teams that were ranked in the top 10 when the game was played. Granted, I prefer to go by end of year rankings to gauge SOS, but one is still ranked #11 and the other #17.
Nothing against Alabama, but they have not played a ranked team yet, and will probably only play Auburn while ranked....but so will Georgia.
See what happens when you fixate on one aspect and throw out other aspects? You would have a point if only one thing mattered. Funny how LSU fans like to harp on Alabama's weak schedule most of the time, then throw it out at other times.
quote:
To me, this is bad news for Alabama and good news for a one loss Oregon or Oklahoma.
It could spell trouble for Oregon because of their schedule, but Oklahoma will be fine with their schedule...if they win out.
quote:This is a legit point.
Alabama could potentially give Auburn their 4th loss end the season having no wins over a top 25 team. If they get in over a one loss conference champion with that resume then Bama privilege is a real thing.
Posted on 11/16/19 at 7:12 am to Buga
I think the fact that Bama's most impressive win is against SC and the Georgia loss was in overtime had a lot to do with it also. Had Georgia been beaten by two touchdowns, I don't think they are ahead of Bama. The Georgia loss was a fluke really. Everything had to go wrong that day for them, and it did. It's happened to Clemson, but the other team let them off the hook.
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