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Arkansas vs. LSU: An objective analysis

Posted on 11/16/11 at 1:21 pm
Posted by NOLA Razorback
Everywhere
Member since Aug 2011
112 posts
Posted on 11/16/11 at 1:21 pm
In preparation of the upcoming matchup of Hogs vs. Tigers, I decided to look at their past performances objectively. While I’m a homer to no end, I still want to see the numbers. What I found was surprising: the numbers show that LSU isn’t as good as everybody makes them out to be.

This chart was created by using only the ESPN rankings of each team that both Arkansas and LSU have faced so far this season. At the end, to compare Hogs vs. LSU, I’ve essentially averaged the rankings from each team to form a strength of schedule analysis and how both LSU and Arkansas have performed in comparison. In short, this shows that Arkansas’ team ranks slightly higher vs. a slightly easier strength of schedule.

Considering all of the hype you see in the media and from LSU fans, I expected to see a much larger gap between the two. However, there simply isn’t one.

LSU SCHEDULE TO DATE (opponent rankings)
Team (Pass/Rush/Points/Defense)
Oregon (79/5/3/33)
NWS (not ranked)
MSU (82/48/70/17)
WV (5/97/16/63)
UK (110/89/115/64)
UF (95/66/83/20)
Tenn. (41/116/102/50)
Aub. (107/42/85/78)
Bama (71/18/24/1)
WKU (106/63/105/59)
Avg. (77/60/67/43)
Avg. of all team rankings vs. LSU = 62

ARKANSAS SCHEDULE TO DATE (opponent rankings)
Team (Pass/Rush/Points/Defense)
MZ St. (Not ranked)
NM (90/98/119/119)
Troy (26/109/95/105)
Bama (71/18/24/1)
TxAM (16/16/12/89)
Aub (107/42/85/78)
Miss (104/85/109/87)
Vandy (100/59/68/31)
SC (102/32/53/19)
Tenn (41/116/102/50)
Avg. (73/64/74/64)
Avg. ranking of all team rankings vs. Arkansas = 69

ARKANSAS VS. LSU
Team (Pass/Rush/Points/Defense/Avg. Rank)
Ark (11/73/13/30/32)
LSU (99/30/18/2/37)

LSU Average Rank = 37
ARK Average Rank = 32
Average Rank of Team vs. LSU = 62
Average Rank of Team vs. ARK = 69
Posted by ocelot4ark
Dallas, TX
Member since Oct 2009
12458 posts
Posted on 11/16/11 at 1:22 pm to
This will not end well.
Posted by VirgilCaine
Orchard Park
Member since Dec 2010
2864 posts
Posted on 11/16/11 at 1:22 pm to
good luck
Posted by Brageous
Member since Jul 2008
107724 posts
Posted on 11/16/11 at 1:22 pm to
Except LSU has actually beaten two top 5 teams. That's a huge difference. Who's the best team Arkansas has beaten?
Posted by jackson123
Dallas
Member since Jul 2010
1550 posts
Posted on 11/16/11 at 1:23 pm to
Beating two top 5 teams away from home pretty much destroys your argument. You also got blown out in your loss. No doubt they are playing better but the comparison is really not even close.
Posted by Ham Malone
Member since Nov 2010
2510 posts
Posted on 11/16/11 at 1:24 pm to
tldr
Posted by mwlewis
JeffCo
Member since Nov 2010
21208 posts
Posted on 11/16/11 at 1:24 pm to
I will admit that Arky has gotten better as the season has progressed but LSU will win. It might be a closer game than the Bama-Arky game was but LSU has too much power.
Posted by Damn Good Dawg
Member since Feb 2011
47325 posts
Posted on 11/16/11 at 1:24 pm to
Posted by Stonehog
Platinum Rewards Club
Member since Aug 2011
33328 posts
Posted on 11/16/11 at 1:24 pm to
quote:

Who's the best team Arkansas has beaten?


Ourselves.
Posted by Analyze That
ThereAndBackAgain
Member since Nov 2009
19867 posts
Posted on 11/16/11 at 1:24 pm to
quote:

Except LSU has actually beaten two top 5 teams. That's a huge difference. Who's the best team Arkansas has beaten?
Posted by therick711
South
Member since Jan 2008
25058 posts
Posted on 11/16/11 at 1:24 pm to
worthless without adjusting for SoS and the recognition that passing defense stat is meaningless. The game is played on the field because ultimately the only meaningful stat comparing two teams is the final score of their game.

/thread
This post was edited on 11/16/11 at 1:25 pm
Posted by bartman217
Canton, GA
Member since Dec 2005
362 posts
Posted on 11/16/11 at 1:24 pm to
why use 3 offensive categories and only 1 defensive category?
Posted by Ham Malone
Member since Nov 2010
2510 posts
Posted on 11/16/11 at 1:26 pm to
quote:

mwlewis


Ricky avatar
Posted by NOLA Razorback
Everywhere
Member since Aug 2011
112 posts
Posted on 11/16/11 at 1:27 pm to
quote:

why use 3 offensive categories and only 1 defensive category?


These are the 4 categories provided by ESPN on each team's page.
Posted by Draconian Sanctions
Markey's bar
Member since Oct 2008
84831 posts
Posted on 11/16/11 at 1:27 pm to
This is a horrible analysis
Posted by TigersWon
Alabama
Member since Jun 2007
1434 posts
Posted on 11/16/11 at 1:27 pm to
I glad you go by Stats, bama also went by Stats
Posted by Brageous
Member since Jul 2008
107724 posts
Posted on 11/16/11 at 1:27 pm to
quote:


These are the 4 categories provided by ESPN on each team's page.



Clearly that makes the argument objective now
Posted by 1bigcat
Bells, Tx
Member since Dec 2007
1125 posts
Posted on 11/16/11 at 1:29 pm to
The big top 10 show down with USCe was a joke. Without Lat they are just not very good.
Posted by Statestreet
Gueydan
Member since Sep 2008
12916 posts
Posted on 11/16/11 at 1:30 pm to
quote:

why use 3 offensive categories and only 1 defensive category?




quote:

NOLA Razorback........>While I’m a homer to no end
Posted by ocelot4ark
Dallas, TX
Member since Oct 2009
12458 posts
Posted on 11/16/11 at 1:32 pm to
quote:

Ourselves


Nice hustle.
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