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re: 5 star rating through the years
Posted on 8/17/14 at 8:40 am to RandySavage
Posted on 8/17/14 at 8:40 am to RandySavage
Ray Drew was a 5 star and he shoulda red shirted his freshman year
2
Posted on 8/17/14 at 9:03 am to Recruitingjunkie
Fifty-sixty years ago there were the Parade Blue Chippers ... 24 of them. One for each position. They were considered the 5 star players of the day.
There were a couple of other All-American teams back then that were considered big as well. There was the East-West team and the Hershey Chocolate All-Americans that played their big national bowl in Hershey Pennsylvania.
In the 90s along comes Jamie Newberg with his Border Wars thing and Jim Heckman with his Rivals thing and the drunkard fig Bobby Burton with his, whatever it was, and the internet premium subscription model thing was born soon afterwards.
Notre Dame fans were the biggest recruitnics back then, they always were. So it was soon discovered that the higher you ranked Notre Dame's recruits, the more subscriptions you sold. Of course the SEC had always been big on recruiting, the true fans, much of that was driven by sports talk radio that really caught fire after FM radio took over music and AM went all talk radio. AM stations were looking for content and sports talk radio started part time on the AM news station to fill around the Rush Limbaugh Show. That was in the late 80s.
So to put it all into chronological order.
Parade All-Americans and other All-Star games began in the 50s and ran through the 60s and 70s and early 80s.
ESPN TV launched in the late 70s ....
Late 80s sports talk shows began to boom as fill-in around the Rush Limbaugh show on AM stations. Recruiting talk was born out of listener demand.
Magazines began to hit the shelves with more recruiting news. Street and Smith had always been the standard on the racks, since the 50s, but Athlons launched in the 60s and by the 80s there were magazines dedicated to nothing but recruiting. Bobby Burton and Jamie Newberg have their own magazines, Newberg's is Florida driven and Burton is a Texas homer. They both eventually end-up with Rivals. But Burton backstabs and ends-up with Shannon Terry while Newberg goes with Heckman to Scout. Print media ends-up dying with the advent of the Internet. But remember, it was the Parade Magazine that started it all. Their recruiting issue was always the biggest seller.
ESPN picks-up on the radio trend and launches ESPN radio sometime in the early 90s if I remember correct. Nanci Donnellan, better known as The Fabulous Sports Babe (a misnomer) builds her show around pro sports draft and college sports recruiting.
Mid 90s and Jim Heckman, who was involved in the Washington Huskies recruiting scandal ... launches Rivals around '98, he buys out Shannon Terry's Border Wars. Heckman learns quickly that the primary markets are the Florida teams, Texas, Notre Dame and Southern Cal. He builds around those ... college football is king.
Sports Talk radio booms and 24/7/365 sports stations are launched.
Rivals holds to the old 24 player model when ranking players by stars, but they soon find more players that deserve to be five star players according to their size, speed, production, offer model.
Heckman loses Rivals in 2001 and Shannon Terry buys the network for roughly ten cents on the dollar. Terry eventually sells to Yahoo.
Heckman starts another service which he eventually renames Scout. He eventually sells to Fox Sports.
Terry outlasts his non-compete with Yahoo and launches 24/7.
All of them are competing for the same premium subscriber bases ... recruiting has gone full scale and drives the networks more than content or anything else.
The rating model is refined. The current 24/7 composite model is adopted along with the crystal ball prediction model.
With more data being fed into the system and more experienced scouts feeding data the star power is increased.
The current technical 247 model states a 5 star player is a sure starter, as a true freshman, who will definitely leave in three years.
A four star player could contribute as a true freshman but definitely as a starter as a redshirt freshman.
A three star player will contribute and start by his RSo season.
A two star player will contribute as a RSo but start as a RSJr.
A one star player will be a contributor, may start by his RSr season.
Today, the rating scale is based on size, speed, academics, strength, agility, camp results/grades and offer list.
Today there are more 5 stars some years than others. There is no set quota for a certain number, but numbers of 5 and 4 stars are increasing because there are bigger stronger faster athletes plus there are now more high school training camps and schools, many of which offer free rides to certain athletes in an effort to up their bonefides and credentials ... of the camps and schools, not the athletes per se.
ETA: In the end it was discovered that rating Notre Dame's classes too high, in an effort to appease the ND fan base, backfired on the services so they began to ease-up on the overrating of ND commits. This helped to clean the air and offer a more critical, accurate, rating system throughout the industry.
There were a couple of other All-American teams back then that were considered big as well. There was the East-West team and the Hershey Chocolate All-Americans that played their big national bowl in Hershey Pennsylvania.
In the 90s along comes Jamie Newberg with his Border Wars thing and Jim Heckman with his Rivals thing and the drunkard fig Bobby Burton with his, whatever it was, and the internet premium subscription model thing was born soon afterwards.
Notre Dame fans were the biggest recruitnics back then, they always were. So it was soon discovered that the higher you ranked Notre Dame's recruits, the more subscriptions you sold. Of course the SEC had always been big on recruiting, the true fans, much of that was driven by sports talk radio that really caught fire after FM radio took over music and AM went all talk radio. AM stations were looking for content and sports talk radio started part time on the AM news station to fill around the Rush Limbaugh Show. That was in the late 80s.
So to put it all into chronological order.
Parade All-Americans and other All-Star games began in the 50s and ran through the 60s and 70s and early 80s.
ESPN TV launched in the late 70s ....
Late 80s sports talk shows began to boom as fill-in around the Rush Limbaugh show on AM stations. Recruiting talk was born out of listener demand.
Magazines began to hit the shelves with more recruiting news. Street and Smith had always been the standard on the racks, since the 50s, but Athlons launched in the 60s and by the 80s there were magazines dedicated to nothing but recruiting. Bobby Burton and Jamie Newberg have their own magazines, Newberg's is Florida driven and Burton is a Texas homer. They both eventually end-up with Rivals. But Burton backstabs and ends-up with Shannon Terry while Newberg goes with Heckman to Scout. Print media ends-up dying with the advent of the Internet. But remember, it was the Parade Magazine that started it all. Their recruiting issue was always the biggest seller.
ESPN picks-up on the radio trend and launches ESPN radio sometime in the early 90s if I remember correct. Nanci Donnellan, better known as The Fabulous Sports Babe (a misnomer) builds her show around pro sports draft and college sports recruiting.
Mid 90s and Jim Heckman, who was involved in the Washington Huskies recruiting scandal ... launches Rivals around '98, he buys out Shannon Terry's Border Wars. Heckman learns quickly that the primary markets are the Florida teams, Texas, Notre Dame and Southern Cal. He builds around those ... college football is king.
Sports Talk radio booms and 24/7/365 sports stations are launched.
Rivals holds to the old 24 player model when ranking players by stars, but they soon find more players that deserve to be five star players according to their size, speed, production, offer model.
Heckman loses Rivals in 2001 and Shannon Terry buys the network for roughly ten cents on the dollar. Terry eventually sells to Yahoo.
Heckman starts another service which he eventually renames Scout. He eventually sells to Fox Sports.
Terry outlasts his non-compete with Yahoo and launches 24/7.
All of them are competing for the same premium subscriber bases ... recruiting has gone full scale and drives the networks more than content or anything else.
The rating model is refined. The current 24/7 composite model is adopted along with the crystal ball prediction model.
With more data being fed into the system and more experienced scouts feeding data the star power is increased.
The current technical 247 model states a 5 star player is a sure starter, as a true freshman, who will definitely leave in three years.
A four star player could contribute as a true freshman but definitely as a starter as a redshirt freshman.
A three star player will contribute and start by his RSo season.
A two star player will contribute as a RSo but start as a RSJr.
A one star player will be a contributor, may start by his RSr season.
Today, the rating scale is based on size, speed, academics, strength, agility, camp results/grades and offer list.
Today there are more 5 stars some years than others. There is no set quota for a certain number, but numbers of 5 and 4 stars are increasing because there are bigger stronger faster athletes plus there are now more high school training camps and schools, many of which offer free rides to certain athletes in an effort to up their bonefides and credentials ... of the camps and schools, not the athletes per se.
ETA: In the end it was discovered that rating Notre Dame's classes too high, in an effort to appease the ND fan base, backfired on the services so they began to ease-up on the overrating of ND commits. This helped to clean the air and offer a more critical, accurate, rating system throughout the industry.
This post was edited on 8/17/14 at 9:12 am
Posted on 8/17/14 at 9:13 am to Recruitingjunkie
quote:
Rating a lot of these kids as 5 stars isn't really just, IMO.
quote:
There are currently 37 composite 5 stars for 2015 class
Which of those players should be 4 stars, in your opinion?
Posted on 8/17/14 at 11:48 am to Chris_topher
quote:
Ray Drew was a 5 star and he shoulda red shirted his freshman year
Which proves what?
Serious question.
Posted on 8/17/14 at 12:07 pm to Chris_topher
quote:
Ray Drew was a 5 star and he shoulda red shirted his freshman year
Posted on 8/17/14 at 12:15 pm to scrooster
quote:Georgia and USCe wont like to hear this.
A one star player will be a contributor, may start by his RSr season.
Posted on 8/17/14 at 12:18 pm to JumpingTheShark
quote:
I would like to see a retrospective evaluation of recruits after they have finished their college career. I have always thought the 5 star hype was crap especially when a lot of guys play crappy teams all through high school. I like snagging those under the radar 3 star guys who just play their arse off. It's all hit or miss IMO.
Yeah.. it's been done and 5*s get drafted in the 1st round at a ridiculously high rate. It's the 4*s that are a crapshoot..
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