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Cruz once again exceeds expectations
Posted on 4/6/16 at 8:59 am
Posted on 4/6/16 at 8:59 am
It seems to be a constant trend with each new primary: Ted Cruz exceeds expectations
The RCP Polling average yesterday showed the Wisconsin race to be a close contest, with Cruz leading by 4.7%. Cruz trounced Donald Trump, winning by more than 13% of the vote. Here is how each candidate out-performed their RCP polling average:
+9.1%: Cruz
+0.6%: Trump
-5.9%: Kasich
Kasich once again proved there is no point to him being in the race. In state after state, last minute deciders are voting for Cruz. It's becoming highly probable that Marco Rubio will still have more delegates than John Kasich when the Republican convention kicks off in June... despite Rubio dropping out in very early March. Kasich is an absolute joke.
Trump is about to move into a period of the race that will be very favorable to him: New York is next... followed by Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Rhode Island, and Pennsylvania a week later.
Trump will do very well in those states. But it was also conventional wisdom a month ago that he would do very well in Wisconsin. That didn't happen.
More and more people are realizing that a Trump nomination would be a disaster for the party. The chances of Trump getting to the convention with the necessary 1,237 delegates to win on the first ballot is starting to look unlikely.
The RCP Polling average yesterday showed the Wisconsin race to be a close contest, with Cruz leading by 4.7%. Cruz trounced Donald Trump, winning by more than 13% of the vote. Here is how each candidate out-performed their RCP polling average:
+9.1%: Cruz
+0.6%: Trump
-5.9%: Kasich
Kasich once again proved there is no point to him being in the race. In state after state, last minute deciders are voting for Cruz. It's becoming highly probable that Marco Rubio will still have more delegates than John Kasich when the Republican convention kicks off in June... despite Rubio dropping out in very early March. Kasich is an absolute joke.
Trump is about to move into a period of the race that will be very favorable to him: New York is next... followed by Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Rhode Island, and Pennsylvania a week later.
Trump will do very well in those states. But it was also conventional wisdom a month ago that he would do very well in Wisconsin. That didn't happen.
More and more people are realizing that a Trump nomination would be a disaster for the party. The chances of Trump getting to the convention with the necessary 1,237 delegates to win on the first ballot is starting to look unlikely.
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Posted on 4/6/16 at 9:07 am to BHMKyle
quote:
Kasich once again proved there is no point to him being in the race.
i've really grown to hate that guy.
Posted on 4/6/16 at 9:17 am to BHMKyle
quote:
Trump will do very well in those states. But it was also conventional wisdom a month ago that he would do very well in Wisconsin. That didn't happen.
I don't understand why conventional wisdom would suggest Trump would do well there. Paul Ryan, Scott Walker, and the GOP establishment are heavily entrenched and motivated in Wisconsin. Couple that with local talk radio being at the forefront of the Never Trump movement, and this was a perfect storm of coalescing behind one candidate to beat Trump.
I don't think you'll see another state be as hostile to Trump as Wisconsin was for quite a while.
Still, this probably ensures a brokered convention, and Paul Ryan as the GOPe candidate to get rocked by HillDawg in November. Assuming she isn't in jail.
Posted on 4/6/16 at 9:31 am to BHMKyle
Trump curb stomps that ugly Canadian weasel Cruz and you neocons can't fricking stand it
Posted on 4/6/16 at 9:45 am to BHMKyle
The silent majority really doesn't like Trump... Shocking.
Posted on 4/6/16 at 9:49 am to MoarKilometers
quote:
The silent majority really doesn't like Trump... Shocking.
I believe they will show up in the coming states. Between his views on punishing women for abortion and his recent statement, he's not doing himself any favors.
Posted on 4/6/16 at 9:49 am to BHMKyle
The race now swings to the East, however, where Cruz is a pariah even amongst neocons. Trump and Kasich should blow the doors off the Cruzmobile. Smarmy doesn't play in the Northeast.
Posted on 4/6/16 at 10:26 am to RoyalAir
quote:
I don't understand why conventional wisdom would suggest Trump would do well there. Paul Ryan, Scott Walker, and the GOP establishment are heavily entrenched and motivated in Wisconsin. Couple that with local talk radio being at the forefront of the Never Trump movement, and this was a perfect storm of coalescing behind one candidate to beat Trump.
I don't think you'll see another state be as hostile to Trump as Wisconsin was for quite a while.
Yep.
quote:
Still, this probably ensures a brokered convention, and Paul Ryan as the GOPe candidate to get rocked by HillDawg in November.
Maybe. The next two weeks will tell the tale. There are 267 delegates up for grabs and all but 19 are in winner-take-all or winner-take-most states. In every one but Delaware (which apparently hasn't been polled), Trump has a lead usually outside the margin of error. If he sweeps those, he will be in a powerful position.
quote:
Still, this probably ensures a brokered convention, and Paul Ryan as the GOPe candidate to get rocked by HillDawg in November.
If Paul Ryan gets nominated having not participated in the primaries, he won't just get rocked. Trump will go independent and Ryan will not carry a single state. I just cannot see anyone in the (R) party being stupid enough to go that route. The nominee will be Trump or Cruz.
Posted on 4/6/16 at 10:27 am to RoyalAir
quote:
I don't understand why conventional wisdom would suggest Trump would do well there. Paul Ryan, Scott Walker, and the GOP establishment are heavily entrenched and motivated in Wisconsin.
The same reason why people are saying that Trump will likely win Indiana in a few weeks: Lots of blue collar workers
Over 16% of all jobs in Wisconsin are manufacturing jobs... that compares to just 8.7% nationally.
States with the highest percentage of manufacturing jobs:
17.12%- Indiana
16.39%- Wisconsin
13.95%- Michigan
13.77%- Iowa
12.99%- Alabama
12.80%- Ohio
12.75%- Arkansas
12.70%- Kentucky
Wisconsin is also far less evangelical compared to most of the states that Cruz has won. While Trump has done better than expected with evangelicals in the South, it is still a demographic that better suits Cruz.
Cruz has thus far done very well in states with high evangelical or Mormon populations.
Combined Evangelical + Mormon make-up of states Cruz has won:
62%- Utah
48%- Oklahoma
40%- Idaho
36%- Wyoming
32%- Texas
32%- Kansas
28%- Iowa
----National Average 27%----
22%- Wisconsin
16%- Maine
Maine was a caucus state in which there were less than 19,000 total people participating... Cruz won that because he has far superior organization compared to the Trump campaign.
But outside of Maine, Wisconsin is the first state that Cruz has won with an Evangelical/Mormon population below the national average.
This is another reason why Cruz' large margin of victory was such a surprise.
Now, with just 4 weeks until the winner-take-all Indiana primary, the conventional wisdom again is that Trump should win the Hoosier state.
While it has a slightly higher percentage of manufacturing jobs compared to Wisconsin, it is also far more Evangelical. A total of 32% of Indiana is comprised of Evangelical Christians or Mormons... far higher than the 22% in Wisconsin.
If Cruz wins Indiana, there is almost no hope for Trump to get to the 1237 delegates he needs before the convention.
This post was edited on 4/6/16 at 12:22 pm
Posted on 4/6/16 at 10:43 am to Kentucker
quote:
The race now swings to the East, however, where Cruz is a pariah even amongst neocons. Trump and Kasich should blow the doors off the Cruzmobile.
Trump should do well in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic... but there is room for him to do well there and still fall short of the 1237 delegates he needs to win the nomination.
Trump currently has 758 delegates. Even if he won 80% of all delegates available in NY, CT, DE, MD, PA, RI, WV, and NJ.... that would bring him to just 1040 total. He's still almost 200 short of 1237.
While Trump will get the majority of delegates in the above states, I would be surprised if he claimed 80% of them... probably closer to 70%
Nate Silver (who is very good at these types of projections) currently projects Trump to win Pennsylvania by just 3.8% of the vote.... that's with Kasich claiming over 26% of the vote, which is unlikely. There is a decent chance that Cruz could pull an upset in Pennsylvania.
Silver also projects that Cruz will narrowly win in California.
Every single week it becomes more and more obvious that this race will come down the convention.
Posted on 4/6/16 at 10:50 am to cas4t
quote:
I believe they will show up in the coming states. Between his views on punishing women for abortion and his recent statement, he's not doing himself any favors.
He just needs to stick with, "I will be a great President, folks. Believe me, we're going to make the best deals, and we will do very, very well."
Posted on 4/6/16 at 11:18 am to BHMKyle
I strongly disagree with you about California. I think Trump will easily take it.
There are nearly 40 million people in that state and it's diverse (it's like a bowl of granola - what ain't fruits and nuts are flakes), but evangelicals are far outnumbered by angry men who see it being swamped by invaders from south of the border.
It isn't like Texas where those two types make up the same group.
There are nearly 40 million people in that state and it's diverse (it's like a bowl of granola - what ain't fruits and nuts are flakes), but evangelicals are far outnumbered by angry men who see it being swamped by invaders from south of the border.
It isn't like Texas where those two types make up the same group.
Posted on 4/6/16 at 11:34 am to JustGetItRight
quote:
If Paul Ryan gets nominated having not participated in the primaries, he won't just get rocked. Trump will go independent and Ryan will not carry a single state. I just cannot see anyone in the (R) party being stupid enough to go that route. The nominee will be Trump or Cruz.
I'm afraid you underestimate the Establishment. This process has made it very clear that you, the voter, don't matter at all. The Party does what the Party wants. I think Ryan knows he is Next In Line, which is why he didn't endorse Cruz the other day when Walker did.
If the GOP does this and screws over Trump or Cruz with someone who isn't in the race, then the GOP will essentially collapse by the end of the year. It's the right time for a legit third party to cater to the traditional Republican base that has been ignored. Wonder if that will actually happen.
Posted on 4/6/16 at 11:39 am to RoyalAir
If they pick Ryan over Cruz or Trump, there will be no party for the establishment to rule.
Eta: Kentuckier is right about Cali.
Eta: Kentuckier is right about Cali.
This post was edited on 4/6/16 at 11:40 am
Posted on 4/6/16 at 11:51 am to Gradual_Stroke
quote:
Trump curb stomps that ugly Canadian weasel Cruz and you neocons can't fricking stand it
I was about to say: "Exceeds expectations? Isn't he gettin' the frick beaten out of him by a dude with no political history whatsoever?"
Posted on 4/6/16 at 12:18 pm to BHMKyle
Does the DC Madam's blackbook concern you?
Posted on 4/6/16 at 12:20 pm to Pinche Cabron
quote:
Does the DC Madam's blackbook concern you?
about as much as Trump's multiple affairs should for his supporters.
Posted on 4/6/16 at 12:23 pm to 3nOut
It wasn't a shot.
Posted on 4/6/16 at 12:39 pm to Kentucker
quote:
I strongly disagree with you about California. I think Trump will easily take it.
Maybe. Maybe not. You are probably one of the people on this board who 3 weeks ago said the same thing about Wisconsin.
Here are the most recent polls of California:
Survey USA: Trump 40%, Cruz 32%, Kasich 17%
USC: Trump 36%, Cruz 35%, Kasich 14%
NSON Opin: Trump 38%, Cruz 22%, Kasich 20%
PPIC: Trump 38%, Cruz 27%, Kasich 14%
SmithJohn: Trump 25%, Cruz 20%, Kasich 15%
Those are the only 5 polls conducted since March. According to Nate Silver's site, the weighted average of these polls is this:
35.3%- Trump
29.8%- Cruz
16.0%- Kasich
He gives more weight to the polls conducted more recently.
So while Trump leads the polls by about 5.5%, Silver also projects that right now, Cruz has a 60% chance of winning California. Why is that? Because Trump consistently proves that his pre-vote polling average is almost always equal to his ceiling. Bottom line is this: Most people who are going to vote for Trump have already made up their mind. Most people who are unsure at this moment, will end up voting for someone else if they vote.
The past few primaries have proven that a lot of people who say they are going to vote for Kasich end up voting for Cruz because they decide at the last minute not to waste their vote. In most of the recent primaries, Trump is getting the vast majority of the late-deciders, and he's taking a good chunk of Kasich's support at the last minute. This is why state-after-state, Cruz is ending up with 7-9% more of the vote in the actual election compared to his pre-vote polling average.
Silver projects that Cruz will win California, and the vote will look something like this:
41.1%- Cruz
36.7%- Trump
20.7%- Kasich
Of course this will change. That primary is not until June. But I think the longer this stretches out, the more it benefits Cruz. Kasich will continue to lose support (and donations) because he's simply not a factor. And every poll shows Cruz benefits more from Kasich supporters choosing another candidate.
Posted on 4/6/16 at 12:44 pm to Pinche Cabron
quote:
It wasn't a shot.
as in a shot against Cruz? wasn't intended.
if Cruz did sleep around i'll lose a lot of respect for him. don't know if i'll go straight scorched earth and drop him, but i'd like to know the facts first. his denial is pretty strong, and it seems like if it were true, it'd be provable by now.
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