Toledo

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Posted this in another thread, but since I wasted the amount of time that I did on it, figured I'd start another thread if folks were interested...

Some facts about Toledo from last season...

2012:
Wins
+3 @ Wyoming (4-8)
+12 vs. Bowling Green (8-5)
+10 vs. Coastal Carolina (D-IAA)
+20 @ Western Michigan (4-8)
+15 vs. Central Michigan (7-6)
+5 @ Eastern Michigan (2-10)
+6 vs. Cincy (10-3)
+5 @ Buffalo (4-8)
+12 vs. Akron (1-11)

Losses
-7 @ Arizona (8-5)
-7 vs. Ball State (9-4)
-7 @ Northern Illinois (12-2)
-26 vs. Utah State (11-2)


Offensive Ranks
Total Offense: 32nd nationally
Passing: 45th
Rushing: 36th
Scoring: 45th
Time of Possession: 21st

Defensive Ranks:
Total Defense:115th
Passing: 113th
Rushing: 85th
Scoring: 60th 
Turnover ratio: 32nd

Schedule Strength: 92nd

Sagarin Ratings if Toledo were on Mizzou's 2012 schedule:
1. Alabama
3. aTm
4. Georgia
6. South Carolina
7. Florida
25. Vanderbilt
28. Arizona State
38. Syracuse
40. Missouri
45. UCF
56. Tennessee
69. Toledo
93. Kentucky



What I've taken away from this:

1.  Toledo had a good, not great offense.  They actually are quite adept at holding the ball.  Florida turned this on their head out possessing Toledo 40 minutes to 20 minutes.  They are well balanced and can put up some points...but it's not quite the Texas Tech Air Raid offense that some might expect.

2.  Toledo's defense was ATROCIOUS last season.  The only thing that kept them respectable was forcing turnovers and keeping their squad off the field with good offensive ToP.  Florida ran up 262 yards of rushing offense in week one against Toledo.  Florida ran for 170 last year against us, to compare.  Last year, they gave up over 30 points per game every time they hit the road.  

3.  Toledo is good at protecting the football and forcing TO's.  Ranking 32nd last year is good.  They broke even in the Swamp going 1:1.  They won't kill themselves here, which keeps them in a lot of ballgames.

4.  Toledo may have gotten some wins over teams with gaudy numbers, but it didn't show up in their SOS.  92nd in pretty darn bad.  

5.  Speaking of wins, they beat Cincy (who wasn't as great as 10 wins makes them seem, imo) at home, and a bunch of mediocre to bad teams.  On the road, they scratched out some close wins.

6.  According to Sagarin, Toledo would've been the 2nd worse D-IA team we woudl've played last year.  A full step below teams like Tennessee and UCF, who we beat, while injured, on the road.



What Mizzou needs to do to be successful:

1.  Limit turnovers.  Toledo is good at creating them and doesn't give many away.  Its the easiest way to make this a contest, or worse, lose.  Must protect the rock.

2.  Focus on the run game.  This keeps the ball out of Toledo's hands and doesn't allow them to control the clock.  Furthermore, they have proven they can't stop the run, and to me, that's Mizzou's strength.  Forecasts look to be brutal, again...If it's mid-afternoon in 90+ Missouri heat, jamming the ball down their throat repeatedly will yield success, will kill their will and will rest our defense.

3.  Start fast.  Toledo is comign off of a lowscoring affair where they were physically pummelled for 60 minutes in heat last week.  You get up 2-3 scores in the first quarter, they may simply fold up shop.  If nothing else, it will make them more one dimensional, which kills their offensive strength: balance.  Mizzou simply cannot come out and look completely clueless like they did last week.  They do that this week, and they're in for a struggle.




Lastly, as I type this, I see one of the other top three MAC teams in Ohio (Northern Illinois and Toledo being the others), losing 42-0 at Louisville.

Northern Illinois beat a pretty pedestrian Iowa squad yesterday in Iowa City.  


Fact is, this is a game Mizzou should win.  It may not be 49-6, but if Mizzou shows up and plays up to their ability, it should be a fairly comfortable 3 td win imo.

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