Started By
Message
SEC Home Underdogs
Posted on 9/17/20 at 11:08 am
Posted on 9/17/20 at 11:08 am
I've made a lot of money over the years betting on SEC teams being the underdog at home. Looking at SEC Week 1, and 4 of the 7 games have this feature.
Ole Miss +12.5
Arkansas +24.5
Mizzou +25.5
USCe +3
Three of these games have the home dog with a new coach, which would normally make me reluctant to bet on these games, but with the lack of team activities, it actually makes me apt to take the road team.
In addition to that, with no or limited attendance, there isn't much of a home field advantage, aside from not having to travel for the game.
Anyone else changing up their betting strategy this year? Waiting a few weeks to see what patterns develop before you wager?
Ole Miss +12.5
Arkansas +24.5
Mizzou +25.5
USCe +3
Three of these games have the home dog with a new coach, which would normally make me reluctant to bet on these games, but with the lack of team activities, it actually makes me apt to take the road team.
In addition to that, with no or limited attendance, there isn't much of a home field advantage, aside from not having to travel for the game.
Anyone else changing up their betting strategy this year? Waiting a few weeks to see what patterns develop before you wager?
6
Posted on 9/17/20 at 11:10 am to Murph4HOF
It’s 2020 so you should do the opposite of what you normally do but then again it’s 2020 and maybe it’s wanting you to do the opposite of what you’d normally do so it can bite you in the arse. Who knows. 
Posted on 9/17/20 at 11:15 am to Murph4HOF
quote:
In addition to that, with no or limited attendance, there isn't much of a home field advantage, aside from not having to travel for the game.
Anyone else changing up their betting strategy this year?
I don't think you really need to, Vegas will do that for you.
I have no doubt that bettors are going to lose a lot of money thinking the lines are overinflated for the home team team because of no fans.
In the NFL, home dogs were 3-3 last week against the spread. The lack of fans so far has been accounted for by Vegas very well maybe even too much so
This post was edited on 9/17/20 at 11:20 am
Posted on 9/17/20 at 11:41 am to Murph4HOF
The Home Underdog strategy is a good one.
About 62% of home underdogs in the Power 5 covered last year. I suspect that might be higher this year.
About 62% of home underdogs in the Power 5 covered last year. I suspect that might be higher this year.
Posted on 9/17/20 at 11:43 am to anc
quote:
About 62% of home underdogs in the Power 5 covered last year. I suspect that might be higher this year.
I would think having limited fans would somewhat mitigate home field advantage; however, I do think the lack of prep time over the course of the past 7 months would possibly even the playing field a bit. I guess we'll see.
Posted on 9/17/20 at 12:00 pm to Murph4HOF
I'm considering these games neutral site games for the forsreable future. That's what it looks like on TV to me and why I think it didn't matter for Florida State vs GT.
Posted on 9/17/20 at 12:06 pm to The Winner
FSU is breaking in a new coach and the off season distractions he had to deal with took up precious time that is already limited.
I didn't bet that game, but I would have taken GTU.
That is kind of the though process I am going with for these games. Who knows how UGA is going to do on offense, so I probably won't bet that game, but Alabama -25.5 and Florida -12.5 seem like an intelligent parlay at this point.
I didn't bet that game, but I would have taken GTU.
That is kind of the though process I am going with for these games. Who knows how UGA is going to do on offense, so I probably won't bet that game, but Alabama -25.5 and Florida -12.5 seem like an intelligent parlay at this point.
Posted on 9/17/20 at 1:45 pm to Murph4HOF
SC +3 is the play
Would guess one of AR or OM cover
Bama likely rolls
Would guess one of AR or OM cover
Bama likely rolls
This post was edited on 9/17/20 at 1:46 pm
Posted on 9/17/20 at 1:55 pm to Murph4HOF
UGA is on their 3rd/4th QB this offseason with a new OC. Arkansas at home with a motivated team with some weapons on offense and the llama Franks.
I think it'll be pretty low scoring personally.
I think it'll be pretty low scoring personally.
Posted on 9/17/20 at 3:30 pm to DuckTalesLOL
quote:
UGA is on their 3rd/4th QB this offseason with a new OC. Arkansas at home with a motivated team with some weapons on offense and the llama Franks.
I think it'll be pretty low scoring personally.
Same, around 50 points I'd guess. Maybe less.
Posted on 9/17/20 at 3:44 pm to DuckTalesLOL
quote:
UGA is on their 3rd/4th QB this offseason with a new OC.
Well. You are correct that we got a new OC back in January.
We've lost 1 QB this offseason. A late opt-out which was unfortunate. But he hadn't earned the starting job yet. So the "3rd/4th" QB reference is pretty funny.
This is like 2018 when we lost 35 seniors off the 2017 team.
Posted on 9/17/20 at 5:07 pm to meansonny
Well, I was moreso referring to Newman/JT Daniels transferring in and neither playing. Mathis being the 3rd option at this point.
Page 1 of 1
Back to top
Follow SECRant for SEC Football News