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re: 2019 S&P+ Preseason Rankings
Posted on 2/11/19 at 3:11 pm to thunderbird1100
Posted on 2/11/19 at 3:11 pm to thunderbird1100
quote:
Returning production is hitting them a bit harder than that on the breakdown.
Yea - they lost quite a bit
Posted on 2/11/19 at 3:50 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Interesting to compare and contrast the SOS. Used Alabama vs Clemson in this (so if we're being honest, LSU's SOS, for example, would be even higher to contrast):
Alabama
IC avg rank 20.1 / Average S&P +16.36
OOC avg rank 86.7 / Average S&P -12.4
Overall average rank 38.3 / S&P +10.77 (NM State takes a huge chunk)
Clemson
IC avg rank 62.8 / avg S&P +2.82
OOC avg rank 50.3 / avg S&P +5.27
Overall avg rank 59.4 / avg S&P +3.49 (Charlotte takes a big chunk)
Both teams play 1 FCS school (WCU & Wofford)
Interesting tidbit - Clemson's two toughest games are OOC opponents (Texas A&M and South Carolina) - Alabama plays both, and are the 4th and 5th toughest games on their schedule.
Not included is that, if Alabama wins the West, their likely opponents are either Georgia (#2 / +30.7) or Florida (#6 / +24.6)
Clemson's, by contrast, would either be Miami (#19 / +13.9) or VA Tech (#30 / +10.6)
For contrast:
Oklahoma
IC Avg 48.7 / +5.61
OOC Avg 68 / +1.7 (interesting note - UCLA is practically the same as Duke - 63rd vs 65th)
Overall avg 52.2 / +4.9
Ohio State
IC Avg 42.2 / +8.86
OOC Avg 72 / +0.3
Overall avg 49.67 / +6.72
(In OSU's defense, they do not have an FCS team like the three above them)
Notre Dame
Average 60.3 / +3.45
Number of teams rated as negative S&P:
Alabama - 1 + FCS (NM State)
Clemson - 3 + FCS (Georgia Tech, Charlotte, Louisville)
Oklahoma - 1 + FCS (South Dakota)
Ohio State - 3 (Florida Atl, Miami, OH, Rutgers)
Notre Dame - 4 (Louisville, New Mexico, Bowling Green, Navy)
Overall:
Alabama - +10.77 average
Ohio State - +6.72
Oklahoma - +4.9
Clemson - +3.49
Notre Dame - +3.45
Alabama
IC avg rank 20.1 / Average S&P +16.36
OOC avg rank 86.7 / Average S&P -12.4
Overall average rank 38.3 / S&P +10.77 (NM State takes a huge chunk)
Clemson
IC avg rank 62.8 / avg S&P +2.82
OOC avg rank 50.3 / avg S&P +5.27
Overall avg rank 59.4 / avg S&P +3.49 (Charlotte takes a big chunk)
Both teams play 1 FCS school (WCU & Wofford)
Interesting tidbit - Clemson's two toughest games are OOC opponents (Texas A&M and South Carolina) - Alabama plays both, and are the 4th and 5th toughest games on their schedule.
Not included is that, if Alabama wins the West, their likely opponents are either Georgia (#2 / +30.7) or Florida (#6 / +24.6)
Clemson's, by contrast, would either be Miami (#19 / +13.9) or VA Tech (#30 / +10.6)
For contrast:
Oklahoma
IC Avg 48.7 / +5.61
OOC Avg 68 / +1.7 (interesting note - UCLA is practically the same as Duke - 63rd vs 65th)
Overall avg 52.2 / +4.9
Ohio State
IC Avg 42.2 / +8.86
OOC Avg 72 / +0.3
Overall avg 49.67 / +6.72
(In OSU's defense, they do not have an FCS team like the three above them)
Notre Dame
Average 60.3 / +3.45
Number of teams rated as negative S&P:
Alabama - 1 + FCS (NM State)
Clemson - 3 + FCS (Georgia Tech, Charlotte, Louisville)
Oklahoma - 1 + FCS (South Dakota)
Ohio State - 3 (Florida Atl, Miami, OH, Rutgers)
Notre Dame - 4 (Louisville, New Mexico, Bowling Green, Navy)
Overall:
Alabama - +10.77 average
Ohio State - +6.72
Oklahoma - +4.9
Clemson - +3.49
Notre Dame - +3.45
Posted on 2/11/19 at 3:58 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Yea - plus S&P+ is measuring "how good a team will be", not what their record will be.
Just logically the S&P+ has 6 SEC West teams in the Top 25 - there is no way all 6 of those teams will have good enough records to be in the final AP Top 25. Now, not all of them were Top 25 quality either, but it's hard to compare the two.
And based on what we saw last season, there likely was not a big difference between your #15 team and some of the unranked teams sitting just outside the top 25. There was a pretty clear top 6 teams going into bowl season, and right under that probably another 5-6 teams that were close but not quite there... (read into bowl results what you want)
Posted on 2/11/19 at 3:59 pm to thunderbird1100
quote:
Returning production is hitting them a bit harder than that on the breakdown.
Makes sense. Hadn't looked at their specific breakdown, was just going based on understanding of the formula.
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