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BHMKyle
Georgia Fan
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
2898 posts

2019 S&P+ Preseason Rankings
SIAP, but released this morning:

1. Alabama- 35.4
2. Georgia- 30.7

3. Clemson- 29.9
4. LSU- 25.8
5. Oklahoma- 25.0
6. Florida- 24.6
7. Ohio St.- 24.3
8. Auburn- 22.6
9. Michigan- 21.6
10. Miss. St.- 21.4

Other SEC:
13. Texas A&M- 18.7
16. Missouri- 17.5
18. S. Carolina- 14.9
21. Tennessee- 12.9
37. Kentucky- 8.8
39. Ole Miss- 8.5
48. Arkansas- 6.1
53. Vanderbilt- 5.2
This post was edited on 2/11 at 8:33 am


GatorsGators
Stetson Fan
Member since Oct 2012
10883 posts

re: 2019 S&P+ Preseason Rankings
Four of the top six? not bad, not bad at all


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30
SummerOfGeorge
Atlanta United Fan
Brookhaven-Oglethorpe Station
Member since Jul 2013
43730 posts

re: 2019 S&P+ Preseason Rankings
LOL damn it kyle


JGuidry7
New Orleans Saints Fan
The University of Texas
Member since Jan 2013
803 posts

re: 2019 S&P+ Preseason Rankings
Looks alright.

Who is State returning? Do State fans agree with that ranking? Just curious cause I have no idea.


SummerOfGeorge
Atlanta United Fan
Brookhaven-Oglethorpe Station
Member since Jul 2013
43730 posts

re: 2019 S&P+ Preseason Rankings
quote:

The preseason S&P+ projections are a simple mix of three factors: recent history, returning production, and recruiting. To come up with 130-team projections for all of FBS, I create projected ratings based on each factor. Here’s how the process works:

For recruiting, I create a rating based on these weighted four-year recruiting rankings. The weighting (67 percent this year’s class, 15 percent last year’s, 15 percent the year before that, three percent the year before that) is based on what makes the ratings most predictive.
For returning production, I take each team’s returning offensive and defensive production (which are on different scales) and apply projected changes to last year’s ratings. The ranking you see below is not where they rank in returning production but where they would rank after the projected changes are applied to last year’s S&P+ averages. This piece makes up a vast majority of the overall S&P+ projections.
For recent history, I’ve found that getting a little weird predicts pretty well. This number isn’t a strict five-year average — last year’s ratings already carry heavy weight from the returning production piece. Instead, what you see below is a projection based solely off of seasons two to five years ago. Recent history doesn’t carry much weight in the projections, but it serves as a reflection of overall program health. We overreact to one year’s performance sometimes.


2019 - S&P+ Ratings



quote:

Top three projected teams in each conference:

AAC: No. 26 Memphis, No. 27 UCF, No. 44 Cincinnati
ACC: No. 3 Clemson, No. 19 Miami, No. 28 Florida State
Big 12: No. 5 Oklahoma, No. 22 Oklahoma State, No. 34 TCU
Big Ten: No. 7 Ohio State, No. 9 Michigan, No. 11 Wisconsin
Conference USA: No. 74 Southern Miss, No. 77 Marshall, No. 79 FAU
MAC: No. 75 WMU, No. 76 NIU, No. 78 Toledo
Mountain West: No. 24 Boise State, No. 42 Utah State, No. 51 Fresno State
Pac-12: No. 15 Washington, No. 17 Utah, No. 20 Oregon
SEC: No. 1 Alabama, No. 2 Georgia, No. 4 LSU
Sun Belt: No. 31 Appalachian State, No. 69 Troy, No. 70 Arkansas State





quote:

Projected conference averages
1. SEC (+18.1, down 0.5 from 2018)
2. Big Ten (+9.0, up 1.2)
3. Big 12 (+7.6, down 0.2)
4. Pac-12 (+7.2, up 1.1)
5. ACC (+6.6, up 1.3)
6. AAC (-3.0, same)
7. MWC (-3.1, down 2.3)
8. Sun Belt (-6.5, up 1.1)
9. MAC (-8.9, up 0.4)
10. Conference USA (-10.3, same)




skrayper
Alabama Fan
Member since Nov 2012
13170 posts

re: 2019 S&P+ Preseason Rankings
How does a preseason S&P even work? - Which you answered :)
This post was edited on 2/11 at 8:42 am


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Eric Nies Grind Time
Atlanta United Fan
Member since Sep 2012
20760 posts

re: 2019 S&P+ Preseason Rankings
Who knows...MSU is a machine. They don't rebuild, they reload.


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70
BHMKyle
Georgia Fan
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
2898 posts

re: 2019 S&P+ Preseason Rankings
I actually searched your posts to make sure you had not posted yet before I posted.... figured you would soon


Gatorbait2008
Florida Fan
Member since Aug 2015
9617 posts

re: 2019 S&P+ Preseason Rankings
Damn. We play eight of the top 30 teams in this ranking...tough


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04
SummerOfGeorge
Atlanta United Fan
Brookhaven-Oglethorpe Station
Member since Jul 2013
43730 posts

re: 2019 S&P+ Preseason Rankings
quote:

I actually searched your posts to make sure you had not posted yet before I posted.... figured you would soon



You da man - I just randomly saw it and we I think we posted it at almost the exact same time



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roguetiger15
LSU Fan
Member since Jan 2013
11451 posts

re: 2019 S&P+ Preseason Rankings
Aggies too low tbh. They should be where state is at


NFLSU
Houston Astros Fan
Texas Tiger
Member since Oct 2014
7071 posts

re: 2019 S&P+ Preseason Rankings
That’s funny.

I don’t see Texas in the Top 10.

Wonder why?


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60
EasterEgg
LSU Fan
New Orleans Metro
Member since Sep 2018
722 posts

re: 2019 S&P+ Preseason Rankings
35. Texas - 8.9

Whew, it's going to be fun watching them fall off that preaseason top 10 perch.


thunderbird1100
LSU Fan
GSU Eagles fan
Member since Oct 2007
54585 posts

re: 2019 S&P+ Preseason Rankings
quote:

16. Missouri- 17.5



This seems, a bit high?


NFLSU
Houston Astros Fan
Texas Tiger
Member since Oct 2014
7071 posts

re: 2019 S&P+ Preseason Rankings
I truly hope that Texas is ranked higher than us when we roll into Austin.

Can’t. Wait.


ShaneTheLegLechler
Houston Astros Fan
Inside the Mind of a Greg Jennings
Member since Dec 2011
46478 posts
 Online 

re: 2019 S&P+ Preseason Rankings
quote:

Aggies too low tbh. They should be where state is at



I’ve seen us in some of these top 10 lists and I’m not sure we belong there. 13-15 seems about right. We are replacing quite a bit on the front 7 which was a big strength.


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EasterEgg
LSU Fan
New Orleans Metro
Member since Sep 2018
722 posts

re: 2019 S&P+ Preseason Rankings
They are in most of the early preseason rankings.


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EasterEgg
LSU Fan
New Orleans Metro
Member since Sep 2018
722 posts

re: 2019 S&P+ Preseason Rankings
quote:

8. Auburn- 22.6

So basically, Texas should be substituted with Auburn in all those silly "way too early" preason rankings?


mizslu314
Missouri Fan
Dirty STL
Member since Sep 2013
7692 posts

re: 2019 S&P+ Preseason Rankings
Eh. people all across media have been putting us at 24-19, so while a but high, not far off. And its good to see people's opinions and computers being close, lord knows thats rare these day's.

Our schedule is a big reason why. Its so freaking favorable for us.

Also, the team its self will be good. We all had a good laugh at how bad the secondary was at the beginning of the season, but it and the defense really really improved as the season went.

On offense you have the best TE in the country, a top 3 RB in the conference, a few wr who had good frosh seasons, and a solid oline. While I agree Bryant isn't amazing, he doesn't have to be. We're not talking about how we needed lock to do everything like in his first few years here.

Our weakness is going to be D-ends and dline depth. I really like our tackles, just not sure yet how deep that will go. I like the linebackers, like the secondary.
This post was edited on 2/11 at 9:33 am


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BHMKyle
Georgia Fan
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
2898 posts

re: 2019 S&P+ Preseason Rankings
Based on S&P+ ratings for 2019 opponents, here are the SEC's toughest SOS:

17.94- S. Carolina
14.98- Texas A&M
14.92- Auburn
14.32- LSU
13.68- Ole Miss
12.89- Georgia
12.71- Vanderbilt
12.65- Tennessee
12.56- Florida*
12.24- Miss. St.
11.17- Kentucky
11.01- Arkansas
10.64- Missouri
10.54- Alabama

*Only teams' FBS Opponents were counted because there are no ratings for FCS teams. Florida plays two FCS opponents, so I attributed a score of -25.0 to count for their 11th opponent since they play an extra FCS team compared to everyone else.

Other interesting SOS notes:

*Auburn plays the toughest SEC schedule (21.40) with Texas A&M's being a close second (20.68). Missouri plays by far the easiest SEC schedule (13.96).

*South Carolina plays by far the toughest OOC schedule (14.50), with Georgia's being a distant 2nd most difficult (5.53). The easiest OOC schedule by far is played by Arkansas (-12.53) with Tennessee's being the next easiest (-6.43)

*With Alabama playing the easiest overall schedule, much will be made of it. So just FYI, Bama plays the 3rd easiest conference schedule and also the 3rd easiest OOC schedule.

This post was edited on 2/11 at 9:42 am


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