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re: Watched the game twice my observations

Posted on 9/28/21 at 3:33 pm to
Posted by metafour
Member since Feb 2007
3599 posts
Posted on 9/28/21 at 3:33 pm to
quote:

As fans we said we would be happy with improvements from Bo to be around the mid 60’s completion percentage, not throw bad INTs when plays break down just throw it away and punt, also to not go rogue in the pocket. He has done all those.


His last 3 games:

GSU: 13 for 27 (48.1%) for 156 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT
Penn State: 21 for 37 (56.8%) for 185 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT
AL State: 9 for 17 (52.9%) for 108 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT

Two of those games came against cupcakes. He has thrown 2 touchdowns in his last 3 games.

He has reverted back to being a ~mid 50's completion passer.

The issue is that this is modern-era college football he's playing in. Go and study his stat-lines over 3-years...he's a guy that would have "worked" back in the early 2000's in Tuberville's days of 3-yards and a cloud of dust offenses. Today, we play teams that have QB's that can drop 400 yards and 3+ TD's through the air on a whim. This whole idea of a low efficiency, low output QB who "doesn't throw interceptions" doesn't work anymore. You literally just saw a mid-major team stack the box against us and dare him to beat them with his arm, and he couldn't. As a result they controlled our running game. This is a rebuilding team with a not-so-good OL - we can't run the ball if the other team is going to just sell out to stop the run.

I just don't understand the refusal from some to commit away from a QB who over 3-years has proven to be the definition of a "game manager". What is the upside with continuing to commit to Bo Nix? He simply doesn't make enough plays with his arm on a consistent basis. That limits your offense so much in 2021.

And the low interception rate from him is literally the result of HOW he "misses" - it's not some magic skill of genius he's showing. I've explained this somany times: he runs towards the sideline and essentially throws the ball away. Yeah, its in the general direction of a receiver, but they're hot throws over everyone's heads. When he misses deep its uncatchable for not only our guy, but the defender as well. That's why you see these routine 15 for 30, 150 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT performances from him. Like okay, he didn't turn the ball over...but he did that by also failing to make any significant plays.

TJ Finley may ultimately suck as much as him, but at least he attempts passes that might lead to something. His biggest issue is that like most guys who have HUGE arms, he tends to push things too much. But what you saw out of him against Ga State is something you rarely see from Nix: he climbs the pocket and throws over the heart of the field which is generally where defenses "lose" receivers when pressure breaks the play down.
Posted by AuSteeler
montgomery. AL
Member since Jan 2015
2989 posts
Posted on 9/28/21 at 4:13 pm to
quote:

TJ Finley may ultimately suck as much as him, but at least he attempts passes that might lead to something. His biggest issue is that like most guys who have HUGE arms, he tends to push things too much. But what you saw out of him against Ga State is something you rarely see from Nix: he climbs the pocket and throws over the heart of the field which is generally where defenses "lose" receivers when pressure breaks the play down.


This is the difference b/t a QB who is athletic but doesn't throw an accurate ball in different scenarios(deep, sideline, etc.) and a QB who is a PASSER who under duress or scrambling can make fairly accurate throws for completions.

On one play...remember the sideline pass Finley threw to Canion, as Finley was scrambling to his right, and Canion made a really nice catch before going out of bounds along the sideline?

Notice one thing about Finley. WHen Finley decides to throw it, he doesn't throw it too far towards the way Canion is almost out of bounds, no, he throws it to a spot inside the sideline, where Canion can reach to and catch it, keep his feet in bounds and make a legit catch.

The difference between a QB who just throws it, and QB who is thinking where he needs to throw it, to allow the WR a chance.

Finley, as you say may wilt under the pressure he is going to get, but he looks the part of a QB who helps a WR when the ball is coming to him...
Posted by allin2010
Auburn
Member since Aug 2011
18159 posts
Posted on 9/28/21 at 4:15 pm to
I saw TJ Finley make one pass on 4th down that luckily was caught. That makes him a hero for a minute, it does not mean he is better than a healthy Bo.
Posted by jangalang
Member since Dec 2014
37067 posts
Posted on 9/28/21 at 4:32 pm to
quote:

And the low interception rate from him is literally the result of HOW he "misses" - it's not some magic skill of genius he's showing. I've explained this somany times: he runs towards the sideline and essentially throws the ball away. Yeah, its in the general direction of a receiver, but they're hot throws over everyone's heads. When he misses deep its uncatchable for not only our guy, but the defender as well. That's why you see these routine 15 for 30, 150 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT performances from him. Like okay, he didn't turn the ball over...but he did that by also failing to make any significant plays.

I’d argue Bo has and can make significant plays. Does it really matter why he doesn’t throw much interceptions? He gets lucky sometimes but I have my own reasons for why he doesn’t throw interceptions. Regardless, by not throwing interceptions he is giving the drive a chance. Bo has a solid floor and we can win ballgames with that floor.

TJ is riskier and more prone to stupid mistakes. Big risk, sometimes big reward. I don’t know why so many argue for him to start over Bo when they don’t even know if he is any better

quote:

The issue is that this is modern-era college football he's playing in. Go and study his stat-lines over 3-years...he's a guy that would have "worked" back in the early 2000's in Tuberville's days of 3-yards and a cloud of dust offenses. Today, we play teams that have QB's that can drop 400 yards and 3+ TD's through the air on a whim. This whole idea of a low efficiency, low output QB who "doesn't throw interceptions" doesn't work anymore. You literally just saw a mid-major team stack the box against us and dare him to beat them with his arm, and he couldn't. As a result they controlled our running game. This is a rebuilding team with a not-so-good OL - we can't run the ball if the other team is going to just sell out to stop the run.

We don’t have the jimmies and joes for modern day offense. We have 1 decent receiver that wouldn’t start for Georgia or Alabama, and other starters that wouldn’t start for Ole Miss. We do have two good running backs and an OL that ticks better while run blocking. We should play to our strengths- maybe with two back sets because that’s the only way we are going to win this year. Shivers 27 yard end around on Saturday
was because the defense was eye balling Tank in the backfield. Lastly, I have yet to see the hard play action fake that Harsin said he studied from Peyton. Plays like that can help both Nix or TJ.
quote:

What is the upside with continuing to commit to Bo Nix?

Tons. Would you sell a stock knowing its already at the bottom? Bo’s bottom isn’t bad, but there is plenty of upside.

Bo Nix vs LSU last year 18-24, 300 yards, 3 TDs
11 carries, 81 yards 1 TD
That’s significant upside

This post was edited on 9/28/21 at 4:44 pm
Posted by alpinetiger
Salt Lake City
Member since Apr 2017
5864 posts
Posted on 9/28/21 at 6:12 pm to
metafor I could type out a bunch of stuff I don't really care about justifying. Bo is a better QB based on data against live competition. You start him, he deserves that respect. If he falters then bring in Finley.
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