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To put Alabama's recruiting class into perspective
Posted on 2/3/21 at 7:37 pm
Posted on 2/3/21 at 7:37 pm
Using 247Sports as reference:
Number of 5-stars signed in the Big Ten: 8
Number of 5-stars signed in the ACC: 6
Number of 5-stars signed in the Big 12: 2
Number of 5-stars signed in the Pac-12: 2
Number of 5-stars signed by Alabama: 7
Number of 5-stars signed in the Big Ten: 8
Number of 5-stars signed in the ACC: 6
Number of 5-stars signed in the Big 12: 2
Number of 5-stars signed in the Pac-12: 2
Number of 5-stars signed by Alabama: 7
13
Posted on 2/3/21 at 7:38 pm to RollTide1987
Seems unfair.
Posted on 2/3/21 at 7:51 pm to RollTide1987
5-stars are good... generally. HOWEVER...
The recruit service "stars" only indicated opinions about the current strength of the player coming out of high school. 5-stars indicate that it is thought that the player "can help a team immediately". The stars do not indicate the development potential. Many highly rated recruits are already at their peak development physically as 19 year old HS seniors, which is one reason they are 5-stars to begin with.
A few years ago I created a detailed spread sheet using a composite recruit star algorithm to try to predict NCAA game results. I totaled the strength of the top 60 NCAA teams based on star-algorithm and ranked them in a matrix. I then tracked results for the entire season.
I was surprised to find that if teams were within 10 places of each other in that matrix, the results of games were pretty much a toss up though the higher rated team did have a slight advantage. This means that the game featuring the 20th ranked team vs either the 10th or 30th ranked team could not be accurately predicted enough to bet on the outcome of the game.
This is probably a reason why Wisconsin and others routinely bust teams with higher numbers of paper stars... their players stay longer, mature physically, and catch up with the 5-stars who were already peaked coming out of high school.
All that said.... I'm very happy with Alabama's recruiting... and I suspect that Coach Saban is a savant when looking at development potential of recruits... and he doesn't really pay much attention to "stars."
The recruit service "stars" only indicated opinions about the current strength of the player coming out of high school. 5-stars indicate that it is thought that the player "can help a team immediately". The stars do not indicate the development potential. Many highly rated recruits are already at their peak development physically as 19 year old HS seniors, which is one reason they are 5-stars to begin with.
A few years ago I created a detailed spread sheet using a composite recruit star algorithm to try to predict NCAA game results. I totaled the strength of the top 60 NCAA teams based on star-algorithm and ranked them in a matrix. I then tracked results for the entire season.
I was surprised to find that if teams were within 10 places of each other in that matrix, the results of games were pretty much a toss up though the higher rated team did have a slight advantage. This means that the game featuring the 20th ranked team vs either the 10th or 30th ranked team could not be accurately predicted enough to bet on the outcome of the game.
This is probably a reason why Wisconsin and others routinely bust teams with higher numbers of paper stars... their players stay longer, mature physically, and catch up with the 5-stars who were already peaked coming out of high school.
All that said.... I'm very happy with Alabama's recruiting... and I suspect that Coach Saban is a savant when looking at development potential of recruits... and he doesn't really pay much attention to "stars."
Posted on 2/3/21 at 7:53 pm to RollTide1987
There's a rumor out there, that another 5 star wanted a Crimson Tide scholarship, only to be told, sorry, we have no room for you.
Posted on 2/3/21 at 7:56 pm to RollTide1987
quote:
Number of 5-stars signed in the Big Ten: 8
Number of 5-stars signed in the ACC: 6
Number of 5-stars signed in the Big 12: 2
Number of 5-stars signed in the Pac-12: 2
Number of 5-stars signed by Alabama: 7
Posted on 2/3/21 at 8:34 pm to RollTide1987
So with that huge talent advantage we can all agree that the only reason bama could ever lose a game is inferior coaching snd poor development right?
Posted on 2/3/21 at 8:44 pm to RollTide1987
Posted on 2/3/21 at 8:50 pm to tgrmeat
quote:You make it so obvious that you don't have a clue about athletics...did you play in the band?
So with that huge talent advantage we can all agree that the only reason bama could ever lose a game is inferior coaching snd poor development right?
Posted on 2/3/21 at 8:56 pm to biclops
quote:
Seems unfair.
You hate to see it
Posted on 2/3/21 at 9:13 pm to RollTide1987
This post was edited on 2/3/21 at 9:17 pm
Posted on 2/3/21 at 9:13 pm to coachcrisp
Why don’t you explain it to me PE teacher crisp?
Posted on 2/3/21 at 9:17 pm to RollTide1987
Groupies. Instead of earning their own Natl Title, they just ride the coattails of others before they are dragged high in the NFL and continue their careers on the practice squads...
Posted on 2/3/21 at 9:19 pm to tgrmeat
Refs...saw a billboard about it once.
quote:
coaching snd poor development right
Posted on 2/3/21 at 9:22 pm to RollTide1987
The discrepancy between this class and the next best SEC class is the largest ever. Saban has never been more dominant. It’s kind of scary.
Posted on 2/3/21 at 9:27 pm to Yippie_Ky_yae
quote:
How bad is your life and credit to think getting an used entry level sports car is super difficult?
Posted on 2/3/21 at 9:43 pm to 3down10
Posted on 2/3/21 at 9:45 pm to Yippie_Ky_yae
Well whatever the reason, I say we keep doing it.
Posted on 2/3/21 at 10:54 pm to RollTide1987
Damn
Posted on 2/3/21 at 11:05 pm to Canyon16
Where did this 5* end up committing?
Posted on 2/3/21 at 11:13 pm to Yippie_Ky_yae
quote:
Truth hurts.... Bama players and the cars
Nice link to the highly regarded ‘Total Frat Move’ blog. I can’t believe some investigative reporter hasn’t gone nuts about this article of young men in front of cars. Top notch research, pal.
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